Turkish 1. Lig17°17 km/h

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    SivassporSivassporBalanced & physical
    2–2
    MA
    Mardin 1969Possession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Sivasspor (36%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mardin 1969 @ 3.20 (+6 %)

    Sivasspor – Mardin 1969 · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Sivasspor 36%X 31%33% Mardin 1969 · 2

    Analysis: Sivasspor – Mardin 1969

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Sivasspor's defensive vulnerabilities stand out starkly in this matchup against Mardin 1969. With xGA at 1.7, the hosts have struggled at the back, conceding chances at an alarming rate. In contrast, the visitors boast an impressive xGA of just 0.67, suggesting they can stifle Sivasspor’s threats effectively. While the model gives Sivasspor a slight edge with a 36% win probability, the numbers indicate Mardin 1969 holds a tangible upper hand, especially at the back.

    Despite having only 2 points to their name, Sivasspor’s expected points (xPoints) are significantly higher at 5.5, hinting at underperformance rather than outright inadequacy. Mardin 1969, however, has already accumulated 8 points with an xPoints of 7.6, showcasing a team that converts potential into actual results. This contrast in performance could play a crucial role as the visitors leverage their defensive solidity and possession-based style.

    The small head-to-head sample lessens its weight compared to current form and expected goals, but it’s worth noting that the most probable scoreline is 1-1, fitting neatly with the xG figures of 1.26 for Sivasspor and 1.12 for Mardin 1969. With a 49% chance for both teams to score and only 42% for over 2.5 goals, this matchup leans towards a low-scoring affair.

    The solid defensive setup of Mardin 1969 paired with their better point performance suggests a tilt toward a narrow contest. Given the circumstances, a cautious yet plausible prediction would be a 1-1 draw. It aligns well with the model’s forecast and offers a tempting betting angle.

    The value lies in betting the draw at odds of 3.29 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome at 31%, providing a slender yet notable edge. Such methodical plays, grounded in statistical variance rather than emotion, keep a betting desk’s lights on.

    SivassporSivasspor
    Form LDLDL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #17xT #17xP/match #10Points #18
    Key players
    • Rey ManajFxG 0.77 · xT -0.07
    • Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.21
    • Valon EthemiLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
    Mardin 1969
    Form DWWD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #8xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Olarenwaju KayodeFxG 0.80 · xT 0.04
    • Bünyamin BalatRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
    • Emre TaşdemirLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.38
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sivasspor 36% · Draw 31% · Mardin 1969 33%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Mardin 1969 SporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,21fair 15,96-23 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SivassporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,28fair 12,64-35 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sivasspor – Mardin 1969

    Predicted score matrix

    Mardin 1969 →
    Sivasspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.7%
    0–110.0%
    0–25.8%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–011.3%
    1–113.5%
    1–27.3%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.4%
    2–18.2%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–03.1%
    3–13.5%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,26–1,12
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @1.68
    Over 2,542%
    @2.04

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sivasspor or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sivasspor or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Daniel Avramovski to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Daniel Avramovski to score24%
    • Baba Alhassan to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Mardin 196933% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Mardin 196933% probability@3.20BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Mardin 196933% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SivassporX2 · Mardin 1969
    Betsafe2.143.20
    EV+ 6%
    3.20
    Betsson2.143.20
    EV+ 6%
    3.20
    Nordicbet2.143.20
    EV+ 6%
    3.20

    Odds updated 2 Sept, 10:36

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    45 %35 %

    2.24 → 2.14

    X0 %
    33 %23 %

    3.19 → 3.20

    2+7 %
    37 %27 %

    3.00 → 3.20

    Over 2,50 %
    50 %40 %

    2.04 → 2.04

    Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sivasspor
    Mardin 1969
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sivasspor (3–6)
    Mardin 1969 (6–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sivasspor
    Kamil Fidan: 159 passningar, xT 0.24FidanUğur Çiftçi: 155 passningar, xT 0.79ÇiftçiOkan Erdogan: 155 passningar, xT 0.22ErdoganAaron Appindangoye: 152 passningar, xT 0.25AppindangoyeCihat Celik: 83 passningar, xT 0.37CelikCharilaos Charisis: 72 passningar, xT 0.11CharisisMehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş: 67 passningar, xT 0BakırbaşMert Çelik: 57 passningar, xT 0.37ÇelikValon Ethemi: 50 passningar, xT 0.2EthemiBurak Kapacak: 48 passningar, xT 0.06KapacakAmilton Minervino da Silva: 40 passningar, xT 0.43Silva
    Mardin 1969
    Ugur Gezer: 187 passningar, xT 0.3GezerMustafa Şengül: 167 passningar, xT 0.26ŞengülBaba Alhassan: 160 passningar, xT 0.07AlhassanEray Korkmaz: 143 passningar, xT 0.31KorkmazEmre Taşdemir: 110 passningar, xT 1.01TaşdemirDjordje Denic: 89 passningar, xT 0.28DenicZdravko Minchev Dimitrov: 81 passningar, xT 0.49DimitrovErce Kardesler: 77 passningar, xT 0.05KardeslerMuammer Denizhan Taskan: 76 passningar, xT 0.04TaskanBünyamin Balat: 68 passningar, xT 0.09BalatTonio Teklic: 64 passningar, xT 0.14Teklic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sivasspor
    Kamil Fidan: 159 passningar, xT 0.24FidanUğur Çiftçi: 155 passningar, xT 0.79ÇiftçiOkan Erdogan: 155 passningar, xT 0.22ErdoganAaron Appindangoye: 152 passningar, xT 0.25AppindangoyeCihat Celik: 83 passningar, xT 0.37CelikCharilaos Charisis: 72 passningar, xT 0.11CharisisMehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş: 67 passningar, xT 0BakırbaşMert Çelik: 57 passningar, xT 0.37ÇelikValon Ethemi: 50 passningar, xT 0.2EthemiBurak Kapacak: 48 passningar, xT 0.06KapacakAmilton Minervino da Silva: 40 passningar, xT 0.43Silva
    Mardin 1969
    Ugur Gezer: 187 passningar, xT 0.3GezerMustafa Şengül: 167 passningar, xT 0.26ŞengülBaba Alhassan: 160 passningar, xT 0.07AlhassanEray Korkmaz: 143 passningar, xT 0.31KorkmazEmre Taşdemir: 110 passningar, xT 1.01TaşdemirDjordje Denic: 89 passningar, xT 0.28DenicZdravko Minchev Dimitrov: 81 passningar, xT 0.49DimitrovErce Kardesler: 77 passningar, xT 0.05KardeslerMuammer Denizhan Taskan: 76 passningar, xT 0.04TaskanBünyamin Balat: 68 passningar, xT 0.09BalatTonio Teklic: 64 passningar, xT 0.14Teklic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSivassporMardin 1969
    Points28
    xPoints5.57.6
    xG per match1.41.7
    xGA per match1.70.67
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.46
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.06
    Playing styleSivassporMardin 1969
    Build-up efficiency0.320.38
    Field tilt0.490.55
    xT per match0.731.1
    xTA per match1.20.7
    Won balls, offensive half2025
    Pressing intensity0.210.21
    Pressing efficiency0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.21
    Entries into the box per match1213
    Entries into the box against1310
    Pass completion %0.730.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.72
    Passes per match288345
    Passes against per match336364
    Switches of play per match3437.4
    Long balls per match4040
    Set piecesSivassporMardin 1969
    xG from free kicks0.180.02
    Corners per match5.56.1
    Corners against per match42.8
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.060
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.73
    OtherSivassporMardin 1969
    Throw-in control0.670.71
    The goalkeepersMehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş (Sivasspor)Erce Kardesler (Mardin 1969)
    Saves99
    Save %60%90%
    xG prevented56%94%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sivasspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Mardin 1969
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969 according to our model?

    The model gives Sivasspor a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sivasspor 36%, draw 31%, Mardin 1969 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.