01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Besiktas JK to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Süper Lig30°9 km/h
Läs på svenska
Alanyaspor1–0
BE
Besiktas JKThe model's lean: 2 · Besiktas JK (48%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.92 (+13 %)
Alanyaspor – Besiktas JK · Süper Lig
1 · Alanyaspor 24%X 28%48% Besiktas JK · 2
24%
28%
48%
Final score
1 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Alanyaspor 24% · Draw 28% · Besiktas JK 48%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BesiktasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,92fair 5,66+5 %
MissMatchresultat - AlanyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,94fair 13,90-14 %
MissMatch prediction: Alanyaspor – Besiktas JK
Predicted score matrix
Besiktas JK →
Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–18.4%
0–28.2%
0–35.1%
0–4+3.6%
1
1–05.3%
1–110.7%
1–29.8%
1–36.1%
1–4+4.3%
2
2–03.3%
2–16.2%
2–25.8%
2–33.6%
2–4+2.6%
3
3–01.3%
3–12.5%
3–22.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,19–1,87
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.01
Over 2,559%
@1.92EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Besiktas JK to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.559% probability@1.92PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
- 1 · Alanyaspor24% probability@4.49PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- Over 4.520% probability@5.50BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Alanyaspor | X | 2 · Besiktas JK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.80 | 3.55 | 1.88 |
| Betsson | 3.80 | 3.55 | 1.88 |
| Nordicbet | 3.95 | 3.50 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 9% 4.49 | EV+ 3% 3.72 | 1.83 |
Odds updated 23 Aug, 10:33
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 20 August — the odds have shortened from 2.05 to 1.95 (−5%).
1+16 %
25 %20 %
3.88 → 4.49
X+2 %
29 %24 %
3.66 → 3.72
2-4 %
54 %49 %
1.90 → 1.83
Over 2,5+8 %
55 %50 %
1.77 → 1.92
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 20/08/2026 → 23/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Alanyaspor vs Besiktas JK according to our model?
The model gives Besiktas JK a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alanyaspor 24%, draw 28%, Besiktas JK 48%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.