Süper Lig27°13 km/h

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    AmedsporAmedsporPossession control
    vs
    İstanbul Başakşehirİstanbul BaşakşehirBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Amedspor (41%)

    Amedspor – İstanbul Başakşehir · Süper Lig

    1 · Amedspor 41%X 27%31% İstanbul Başakşehir · 2

    Analysis: Amedspor – İstanbul Başakşehir

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Amedspor's possession-based style meets İstanbul Başakşehir's balanced and physical approach, setting up a clash of contrasting philosophies. The hosts have shown more resilience in defense, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 0.9 per match, compared to İstanbul Başakşehir's 1.4. This defensive solidity might just tilt the scales in favor of Amedspor, especially on home turf, where they've collected 7 points to Başakşehir's 4 in the league.

    Despite being the underdog at 31% likelihood, Başakşehir has managed to score in 10 consecutive league matches. This suggests they shouldn't be underestimated in front of goal. Their xG per match stands at 1.7, slightly surpassing Amedspor's 1.3, indicating that if they do break through, it's likely to come from a well-constructed attack rather than a lucky strike.

    The model probabilities give Amedspor a slight edge at 41%, nudging the needle towards a home win. The expected goals figures of 1.54 for Amedspor and 1.25 for Başakşehir reinforce this. The most likely scorelines reflect a tight contest: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (9%), and 2-1 (9%). With the over/under 2.5 goals set at 53%, there’s a mild expectation for more than two goals, aligning with the 56% chance that both teams will find the net.

    Betting angles favor Amedspor at home. With odds of 2.48 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the 3% edge in value (EV+) offers a tempting proposition for those looking to back the model's preference. While it's far from a guarantee, it highlights where the sharper money might land. A 1-1 draw seems plausible, but a narrow 2-1 victory for Amedspor wouldn't be out of the question.

    AmedsporAmedspor
    Form WLWD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #6
    Key players
    • Diaa Sabi'aRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.09
    • Ermal KrasniqiRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    • Gift Emmanuel OrbanFxG 0.48 · xT 0.01
    İstanbul Başakşehirİstanbul Başakşehir
    Form WWLDL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #7xP/match #7Points #12
    Key players
    • Umut BozokFxG 0.25 · xT 0.50
    • Christopher OperiLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.22
    • Eldor ShomurodovCAMxG 0.91 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Amedspor – İstanbul Başakşehir

    Predicted score matrix

    İstanbul Başakşehir →
    Amedspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–17.3%
    0–24.8%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–09.1%
    1–112.2%
    1–27.4%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–19.1%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–14.7%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–12.6%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,25
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.02
    Over 2,553%
    @1.81

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Amedspor or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.85

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Amedspor or draw (1X)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Mbaye Diagne to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Mbaye Diagne to score26%
    • Adama Noss Traoré to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Amedspor41% probability@2.75Paddy PowerEV+14%reference odds
    • 1 · Amedspor41% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 1 · Amedspor41% probability@2.52BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AmedsporX2 · İstanbul Başakşehir
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    2.52    		3.352.62
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    2.52    		3.352.62
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    2.52    		3.352.62
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 14%
    2.75    		3.402.20
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    2.50    		3.502.72

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 11:40

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    40 %35 %

    2.60 → 2.50

    X+1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.45 → 3.50

    2+3 %
    38 %33 %

    2.64 → 2.72

    Over 2,50 %
    55 %50 %

    1.82 → 1.81

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Istanbul Basaksehir have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Amedspor
    İstanbul Başakşehir
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Amedspor (7–5)
    İstanbul Başakşehir (6–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Amedspor
    Lumbardh Dellova: 224 passningar, xT 0.37DellovaDavid Robert Bates: 196 passningar, xT 0.25BatesRayan Ny Aina Arnaldo Raveloson: 148 passningar, xT 0.05RavelosonErmal Krasniqi: 117 passningar, xT 0.21KrasniqiAlban-Marc Lafont: 114 passningar, xT 0.05LafontUmut Meras: 112 passningar, xT 0.22MerasMehmet Yesil: 95 passningar, xT 0.18YesilDiaa Sabi'a: 91 passningar, xT 0.25Sabi'aSamuel Leo Beat Ballet: 66 passningar, xT 0.06BalletGokhan Gul: 65 passningar, xT 0.21GulYira Collins Sor: 62 passningar, xT 0.02Sor
    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Emin Bayram: 217 passningar, xT 0.17BayramJerome Opoku: 202 passningar, xT 0.29OpokuChristopher Operi: 191 passningar, xT 0.75OperiUmut Gunes: 133 passningar, xT 0.1GunesJakub Kaluzinski: 133 passningar, xT 0KaluzinskiOmer Ali Sahiner: 133 passningar, xT 0.23SahinerMuhammed Sengezer: 130 passningar, xT 0.18SengezerOlivier Kemen: 121 passningar, xT 0.29KemenAndreas Skov Olsen: 104 passningar, xT 0.75OlsenAbbosbek Fayzullaev: 68 passningar, xT 0.08FayzullaevEldor Shomurodov: 52 passningar, xT 0.11Shomurodov
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Amedspor
    Lumbardh Dellova: 224 passningar, xT 0.37DellovaDavid Robert Bates: 196 passningar, xT 0.25BatesRayan Ny Aina Arnaldo Raveloson: 148 passningar, xT 0.05RavelosonErmal Krasniqi: 117 passningar, xT 0.21KrasniqiAlban-Marc Lafont: 114 passningar, xT 0.05LafontUmut Meras: 112 passningar, xT 0.22MerasMehmet Yesil: 95 passningar, xT 0.18YesilDiaa Sabi'a: 91 passningar, xT 0.25Sabi'aSamuel Leo Beat Ballet: 66 passningar, xT 0.06BalletGokhan Gul: 65 passningar, xT 0.21GulYira Collins Sor: 62 passningar, xT 0.02Sor
    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Emin Bayram: 217 passningar, xT 0.17BayramJerome Opoku: 202 passningar, xT 0.29OpokuChristopher Operi: 191 passningar, xT 0.75OperiUmut Gunes: 133 passningar, xT 0.1GunesJakub Kaluzinski: 133 passningar, xT 0KaluzinskiOmer Ali Sahiner: 133 passningar, xT 0.23SahinerMuhammed Sengezer: 130 passningar, xT 0.18SengezerOlivier Kemen: 121 passningar, xT 0.29KemenAndreas Skov Olsen: 104 passningar, xT 0.75OlsenAbbosbek Fayzullaev: 68 passningar, xT 0.08FayzullaevEldor Shomurodov: 52 passningar, xT 0.11Shomurodov

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAmedsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    Points74
    xPoints6.56.2
    xG per match1.31.7
    xGA per match0.91.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.160.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.36
    Playing styleAmedsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    Build-up efficiency0.340.31
    Field tilt0.480.56
    xT per match0.661.1
    xTA per match0.581.1
    Won balls, offensive half2125
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.23
    Entries into the box per match1013
    Entries into the box against710
    Pass completion %0.780.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.76
    Passes per match363423
    Passes against per match363375
    Switches of play per match23.247.8
    Long balls per match2651
    Set piecesAmedsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    xG from free kicks0.160
    Corners per match5.34.8
    Corners against per match3.43.8
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against00.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.770.6
    OtherAmedsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    Throw-in control0.740.83
    The goalkeepersAlban-Marc Lafont (Amedspor)Muhammed Sengezer (İstanbul Başakşehir)
    Saves1114
    Save %69%82%
    xG prevented59%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Amedspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Amedspor vs İstanbul Başakşehir according to our model?

    The model gives Amedspor a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Amedspor 41%, draw 27%, İstanbul Başakşehir 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    1 40%X 29%2 31%
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    ÇorumÇorum
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    1 62%X 20%2 17%
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.