Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor: Prediction & Odds (30 Aug 2026)

Süper Lig30 August 2026

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EyüpsporLow block & direct

2–1

AlanyasporPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Alanyaspor (37%)Best value by the model: 1 · Eyüpspor @ 3.41 (+15 %)

1 · Eyüpspor 34%X 29%37% Alanyaspor · 2

34%

29%

37%

Analysis: Eyüpspor – Alanyaspor

Erik Lindberg · 27 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Eyüpspor's position as underdogs contrasts sharply with their unbeaten streak against Alanyaspor in their last four encounters, taking three wins and a draw. Nonetheless, the model tilts towards the visitors with a 37% win probability, slightly outshining the hosts' 34%. This aligns with Alanyaspor's superior performance metrics, boasting edges in points, expected points, and expected goals per match.

While Eyüpspor's playing style leans on low defense and direct play, Alanyaspor's possession control could prove decisive. The expected goals figures, 1.15 for the hosts and 1.25 for the visitors, suggest a game of fine margins. The most likely scorelines reinforce this, with a 1-1 draw at 13%, followed closely by a narrow 0-1 away win at 11%. A low-scoring affair seems probable, as the over 2.5 goals probability lingers at just 43%.

The clear value lies with the home side at odds of 3.15 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Despite Alanyaspor's statistical edge, the model indicates a 6% value edge on an Eyüpspor win. This presents a prudent betting opportunity for those willing to back the numbers over recent head-to-head history.

Eyüpspor

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #9xT #18xP/match #16Points #16

Key players

Charles-André Raux YaoLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
Talha ÜlvanLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Massanga MatondoCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03

Alanyaspor

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #8xT #15xP/match #9Points #4

Key players

Florent HadergjonajRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.34
Gaius MakoutaCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Baran GezekFxG 0.00 · xT -0.01

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Eyüpspor 34% · Draw 29% · Alanyaspor 37%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - EyüpsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,96fair 14,96-7 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AlanyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,19fair 12,71-20 %

Miss

Match prediction: Eyüpspor – Alanyaspor

Predicted score matrix

Alanyaspor →

Eyüpspor →

0–09.4%

0–110.9%

0–27.1%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.0%

1–113.4%

1–28.2%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.0%

2–17.5%

2–24.7%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.3%

3–12.9%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,15–1,25

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

227%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.61

Over 2,543%

@2.39EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Alanyaspor or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Alanyaspor or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Ui-Jo Hwang to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Ui-Jo Hwang to score21%
Nuno Miguel Reis Lima to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Eyüpspor34% probability@3.41PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
1 · Eyüpspor34% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
1 · Eyüpspor34% probability@3.15BetssonEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eyüpspor	X	2 · Alanyaspor
Betsafe	EV+ 6% 3.15	3.10	2.30
Betsson	EV+ 6% 3.15	3.10	2.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 6% 3.15	3.10	2.30
Pinnacle	EV+ 15% 3.41	3.10	2.38

Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.77 to 1.61 (−9%).

1+6 %

34 %24 %

3.22 → 3.41

X-5 %

35 %25 %

3.28 → 3.10

2+4 %

46 %36 %

2.28 → 2.38

Over 2,5+17 %

48 %38 %

2.05 → 2.39

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Eyüpspor 3Draw 1Alanyaspor 0

Goals: 9–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eyüpspor

Alanyaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eyüpspor (0–2)

Alanyaspor (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eyüpspor

Alanyaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eyüpspor

Alanyaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eyüpspor	Alanyaspor
Points	0	4
xPoints	1.7	2.8
xG per match	0.32	0.84
xGA per match	1.2	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.33

Playing style	Eyüpspor	Alanyaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.31	0.4
xT per match	0.47	0.62
xTA per match	1.3	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	19	23
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.12
Entries into the box per match	6	8
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.75	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.64
Passes per match	299	251
Passes against per match	390	490
Switches of play per match	23.4	18.5
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Eyüpspor	Alanyaspor
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	3	5.7
Corners against per match	5.1	3.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.57

Other	Eyüpspor	Alanyaspor
Throw-in control	0.7	0.75

The goalkeepers	Zak Kennedy Jules (Eyüpspor)	Paulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti (Alanyaspor)
Saves	8	10
Save %	100%	91%
xG prevented	100%	91%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eyüpspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Alanyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor according to our model?

The model gives Alanyaspor a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eyüpspor 34%, draw 29%, Alanyaspor 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.