01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Erzurumspor or draw (X2)73%
- Under 3.5 goals82%
Süper Lig
Läs på svenska
GençlerbirliğiLow block & direct1–1
ErzurumsporBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Erzurumspor (43%)
Gençlerbirliği – Erzurumspor · Süper Lig
1 · Gençlerbirliği 28%X 29%43% Erzurumspor · 2
28%
29%
43%
Analysis: Gençlerbirliği – Erzurumspor
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: This Süper Lig clash sees the model leaning toward the visitors despite Gençlerbirliği's impressive four-game winning streak, giving Erzurumspor a 43% chance of victory compared to the hosts' 28%. This sets the stage for a fascinating encounter where form might just clash with deeper tactical insights.
Gençlerbirliği's style, characterized by a low defensive line and direct play, has served them well in terms of results but not in underlying metrics. Their xG and xPoints lag behind their actual points haul, suggesting they've been riding a wave of fortune rather than sustainable performance. Erzurumspor, by contrast, might have no points yet, but their more balanced and physical approach sees them with a marginally higher expected goals tally. They allow fewer expected goals against (1.6) compared to the hosts' 2.5, indicating a more robust defensive setup.
The expected goals model suggests a tight, low-scoring affair, with the most likely outcome being a 0-1 win for Erzurumspor at 14%. The probability of over 2.5 goals is only 37%, and both teams to score sits at just 43%. The data points to a cagey match where defensive solidity could trump offensive flair. With Gençlerbirliği's defence likely to be tested, and Erzurumspor's calculated approach, a single goal could be decisive.
Crucially, there's an opportunity for value hunting here. Erzurumspor's odds of 3.4 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a noteworthy value proposition. The model rates the away win at a 43% probability, offering a generous 47% edge at these odds. For bettors, the smart money might just be on Erzurumspor edging this one, likely with a 0-1 scoreline.
GençlerbirliğiForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #16xP/match #13Points #1
Key players
- Sékou KoïtaFxG 0.53 · xT 0.08
- Ogulcan UlgunRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.00
- Adama Malouda TraoréRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.01
ErzurumsporForm LL
League ranking xG #17xGA #12xT #12xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Brandon BaiyeCDMxG 0.00 · xT -0.02
- Yakup KirtayCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
- Amar GërxhaliuCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Gençlerbirliği 28% · Draw 29% · Erzurumspor 43%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Erzurumspor FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 18,15fair 13,56+34 %
MissMatchresultat - GenclerbirligiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,04fair 25,20-64 %
MissMatch prediction: Gençlerbirliği – Erzurumspor
Predicted score matrix
Erzurumspor →
Gençlerbirliği →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.7%
0–113.9%
0–29.0%
0–33.8%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–010.0%
1–113.5%
1–28.3%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–04.8%
2–16.0%
2–23.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–01.5%
3–11.8%
3–21.2%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.1%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-114%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-012%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.0-29%
Expected goals
0,92–1,26
Both teams to score
43%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2012%
124%
227%
320%
411%
5+7%
Under 2,563%
@1.65EV+3%
Over 2,537%
@2.34
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Erzurumspor or draw (X2)73%
- Under 2.5 goals63%
- Giovanni Crociata to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score43%
- Over 2.5 goals37%
- M'Baye Babacar Niang to score26%
- Eren Tozlu to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Erzurumspor43% probability@4.14PinnacleEV+79%reference odds
- 2 · Erzurumspor43% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+71%reference odds
- 2 · Erzurumspor43% probability@3.95BetssonEV+71%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Gençlerbirliği | X | 2 · Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | 3.20 | EV+ 71% 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.20 | EV+ 71% 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | 3.20 | EV+ 71% 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.22 | EV+ 79% 4.14 |
Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:39
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.98 to 1.65 (−17%).
1-1 %
58 %38 %
2.07 → 2.05
X-6 %
38 %18 %
3.41 → 3.22
2+15 %
35 %15 %
3.59 → 4.14
Over 2,5+26 %
57 %37 %
1.84 → 2.32
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Genclerbirligi come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Gençlerbirliği
Erzurumspor
Gençlerbirliği (3–1)
Erzurumspor (0–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Gençlerbirliği
Erzurumspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Gençlerbirliği
Erzurumspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gençlerbirliği | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 0 |
| xPoints | 2 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1 | 0.46 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Gençlerbirliği | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.16 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 15 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| Entries into the box per match | 5 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 21 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 243 | 464 |
| Passes against per match | 446 | 454 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 38.5 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Gençlerbirliği | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 3.1 |
| Corners against per match | 8.9 | 3.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.83 |
| Other | Gençlerbirliği | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Irfan Can Egribayat (Gençlerbirliği) | Yakup Kirtay (Erzurumspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 2 |
| Save % | 94% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 90% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gençlerbirliği vs Erzurumspor according to our model?
The model gives Erzurumspor a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gençlerbirliği 28%, draw 29%, Erzurumspor 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.