Gençlerbirliği vs Kasımpaşa: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig13 September 2026

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GençlerbirliğiLow block & direct

KasımpaşaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Gençlerbirliği (37%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 2.98 (+8 %)

1 · Gençlerbirliği 37%X 32%31% Kasımpaşa · 2

37%

32%

31%

Analysis: Gençlerbirliği – Kasımpaşa

Sofia Andersson · 8 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Goals appear unlikely when Gençlerbirliği host Kasımpaşa, given both teams' direct playing styles and defensive vulnerabilities. The numbers suggest a tight affair, with Gençlerbirligi slightly favored at 37% to win. The model's most probable result is a 1-1 draw at 14%, closely followed by a 1-0 home victory at 13%. Such low-scoring predictions align with the expected goals: 1.19 for the hosts and 0.97 for the visitors. The under 2.5 goals probability sits at a significant 63%, indicating a cautious approach is in order.

Kasımpaşa's recent unbeaten streak in five league matches cannot be ignored, although Gençlerbirliği has a one-win, one-draw edge in their two head-to-head encounters since 2023. The head-to-head sample is small, thus offering limited predictive power. Kasimpasa's superior xPoints and lower xGA per match highlight their potential to disrupt, but the hosts' direct approach may counter this defensive edge.

While Gençlerbirliği holds a slight advantage in league points, Kasımpaşa's expected metrics suggest they have been the more efficient side. The visitors' xG per match of 1.1, compared to Gençlerbirligi's 1.0, points to a marginal attacking edge for Kasımpaşa. This could tilt the match if converted from potential into goals, yet the model still leans towards Gençlerbirliği due to home advantage.

The best betting angle emerges with the under 1.5 goals market. With a 36% probability, it provides a 10% edge at odds of 3.04 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. For those valuing tactical battles over goal-fests, this line offers significant value, capturing the essence of a match likely to be defined by few scoring opportunities.

Gençlerbirliği

Form WWWDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #16xP/match #15Points #8

Key players

Adama Malouda TraoréRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.01
Sékou KoïtaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.04
Ogulcan UlgunRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.06

Kasımpaşa

Form WDWDD

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #14xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Adrian Dawid BenedyczakFxG 0.49 · xT 0.06
Ali Yavuz KolLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
Kerem DemirbayCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Gençlerbirliği – Kasımpaşa

Predicted score matrix

Kasımpaşa →

Gençlerbirliği →

0–012.0%

0–110.8%

0–25.4%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.5%

1–013.4%

1–113.7%

1–26.4%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.6%

2–08.2%

2–17.9%

2–23.8%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.4%

3–03.3%

3–13.1%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-111%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,19–0,97

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,563%

@1.69EV+6%

Over 2,537%

@2.17

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Gençlerbirliği or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Gençlerbirliği or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals63%
M'Baye Babacar Niang to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals37%
M'Baye Babacar Niang to score26%
Oghenekaro Peter Etebo to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.536% probability@2.98BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.536% probability@2.98BetssonEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.536% probability@2.98NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gençlerbirliği	X	2 · Kasımpaşa
Betsafe	2.25	EV+ 4% 3.25	3.10
Betsson	2.25	EV+ 4% 3.25	3.10
Nordicbet	2.25	EV+ 4% 3.25	3.10
Pinnacle	2.33	EV+ 1% 3.16	EV+ 0% 3.26

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:39

Odds movement

1-2 %

43 %38 %

2.37 → 2.33

X-4 %

32 %27 %

3.29 → 3.16

2+7 %

33 %28 %

3.06 → 3.26

Over 2,5+1 %

47 %42 %

2.15 → 2.17

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Gençlerbirliği 1Draw 1Kasımpaşa 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Kasimpasa are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gençlerbirliği

Kasımpaşa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gençlerbirliği (4–7)

Kasımpaşa (5–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gençlerbirliği

Kasımpaşa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gençlerbirliği

Kasımpaşa

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gençlerbirliği	Kasımpaşa
Points	7	6
xPoints	4	7.6
xG per match	1	1.1
xGA per match	2.2	0.95
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.16

Playing style	Gençlerbirliği	Kasımpaşa
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.32
Field tilt	0.32	0.26
xT per match	0.63	0.67
xTA per match	1.4	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	18	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.19
Entries into the box per match	8	7
Entries into the box against	17	14
Pass completion %	0.75	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.67
Passes per match	298	266
Passes against per match	403	529
Switches of play per match	35.7	24.5
Long balls per match	36	27

Set pieces	Gençlerbirliği	Kasımpaşa
xG from free kicks	0.07	0
Corners per match	3	2
Corners against per match	7.2	7.8
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.58	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.58

Other	Gençlerbirliği	Kasımpaşa
Throw-in control	0.71	0.76

The goalkeepers	Irfan Can Egribayat (Gençlerbirliği)	Andreas Gianniotis (Kasımpaşa)
Saves	27	10
Save %	79%	71%
xG prevented	62%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gençlerbirliği

Fixtures, form & tips

Kasımpaşa

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gençlerbirliği vs Kasımpaşa according to our model?

The model gives Gençlerbirliği a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gençlerbirliği 37%, draw 32%, Kasımpaşa 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.