Süper Lig23°23 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    İstanbul Başakşehirİstanbul BaşakşehirPossession control
    2–3
    GalatasarayGalatasarayPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Galatasaray (49%)Best value by the model: 1 · İstanbul Başakşehir @ 5.11 (+34 %)

    İstanbul Başakşehir – Galatasaray · Süper Lig

    1 · İstanbul Başakşehir 26%X 25%49% Galatasaray · 2

    Analysis: İstanbul Başakşehir – Galatasaray

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Galatasaray's dominant record against İstanbul Başakşehir since 2023 is a striking 4-0 sweep, suggesting a robust psychological edge. This aligns with the model's lean towards the visitors, who have a substantial 49% probability of victory. The hosts have showcased scoring consistency, netting in nine straight league outings, yet their defensive vulnerabilities are apparent when facing stronger opposition.

    The expected goals further underline the disparity, with Başakşehir's 1.31 dwarfed by Galatasaray's 1.88. A possession control strategy might keep the hosts competitive, but the visitors' high press and possession game should exploit the defensive gaps of their opponents. Despite the small head-to-head sample, Galatasaray's form and superior metrics across key areas—points, xPoints, xG, and xGA—all favor the visitors.

    For those hunting value, the home win offers a tempting 23% edge at odds of 4.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. While not the most probable outcome, this is the sharpest betting angle in a match where a 1-2 scoreline and over 2.5 goals are the most likely scenarios.

    İstanbul Başakşehirİstanbul Başakşehir
    Form WWWLD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #4xP/match #7Points #12
    Key players
    • Andreas Skov OlsenFxG 0.16 · xT 0.27
    • Christopher OperiLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
    • Eldor ShomurodovCAMxG 0.92 · xT 0.07
    GalatasarayGalatasaray
    Form WLDWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Baris Alper YilmazFxG 0.28 · xT 0.18
    • Victor OsimhenFxG 1.37 · xT 0.06
    • Yunus AkgunRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.73
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: İstanbul Başakşehir 26% · Draw 25% · Galatasaray 49%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Başakşehir FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,05fair 11,41-3 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - GalatasarayBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,71fair 5,50-33 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: İstanbul Başakşehir – Galatasaray

    Predicted score matrix

    Galatasaray →
    İstanbul Başakşehir →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.4%
    0–17.5%
    0–27.3%
    0–34.6%
    0–4+3.3%
    1
    1–05.1%
    1–110.5%
    1–29.5%
    1–36.0%
    1–4+4.3%
    2
    2–03.5%
    2–16.6%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.9%
    2–4+2.8%
    3
    3–01.5%
    3–12.9%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-17%
    4. 4.0-27%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,31–1,88
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @2.71EV+4%
    Over 2,562%
    @1.42

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Galatasaray to win49%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.33

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Galatasaray to win49%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Leroy Aziz Sané to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Leroy Aziz Sané to score27%
    • Miguel Crespo da Silva to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · İstanbul Başakşehir26% probability@5.11PinnacleEV+34%reference odds
    • 1 · İstanbul Başakşehir26% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
    • 1 · İstanbul Başakşehir26% probability@4.70BetssonEV+23%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · İstanbul BaşakşehirX2 · Galatasaray
    Betsafe
    EV+ 23%
    4.70
    EV+ 3%
    4.15    		1.60
    Betsson
    EV+ 23%
    4.70
    EV+ 3%
    4.15    		1.60
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 23%
    4.70
    EV+ 3%
    4.15    		1.60
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 34%
    5.11
    EV+ 10%
    4.44    		1.61

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 11:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Galatasaray win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.69 to 1.61 (−5%).

    1+14 %
    24 %14 %

    4.49 → 5.11

    X+9 %
    27 %17 %

    4.09 → 4.44

    2-5 %
    64 %54 %

    1.69 → 1.61

    Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    İstanbul Başakşehir 0Draw 0Galatasaray 4
    Goals: 2–9 (⌀ 2,8)

    Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Istanbul Basaksehir have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Galatasaray
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    İstanbul Başakşehir (4–3)
    Galatasaray (9–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Emin Bayram: 175 passningar, xT 0.13BayramJerome Opoku: 167 passningar, xT 0.19OpokuChristopher Operi: 161 passningar, xT 0.61OperiMuhammed Sengezer: 131 passningar, xT 0.18SengezerOlivier Kemen: 113 passningar, xT 0.26KemenOmer Ali Sahiner: 102 passningar, xT 0.04SahinerJakub Kaluzinski: 95 passningar, xT 0.07KaluzinskiUmut Gunes: 90 passningar, xT 0.09GunesAndreas Skov Olsen: 74 passningar, xT 0.71OlsenAbbosbek Fayzullaev: 53 passningar, xT 0.08FayzullaevEldor Shomurodov: 42 passningar, xT 0.1Shomurodov
    Galatasaray
    Davinson Sanchez: 177 passningar, xT 0.26SanchezLucas Torreira: 168 passningar, xT 0.16TorreiraAbdulkerim Bardakci: 159 passningar, xT 0.65BardakciRoland Sallai: 136 passningar, xT 0.58SallaiMario Lemina: 107 passningar, xT 0.04LeminaGabriel Sara: 105 passningar, xT 0.55SaraYunus Akgun: 95 passningar, xT 1.57AkgunIsmail Jakobs: 88 passningar, xT 0.45JakobsUgurcan Cakir: 73 passningar, xT 0.04CakirLeroy Aziz Sané: 53 passningar, xT 0.05SanéBaris Alper Yilmaz: 47 passningar, xT 0.48Yilmaz
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Emin Bayram: 175 passningar, xT 0.13BayramJerome Opoku: 167 passningar, xT 0.19OpokuChristopher Operi: 161 passningar, xT 0.61OperiMuhammed Sengezer: 131 passningar, xT 0.18SengezerOlivier Kemen: 113 passningar, xT 0.26KemenOmer Ali Sahiner: 102 passningar, xT 0.04SahinerJakub Kaluzinski: 95 passningar, xT 0.07KaluzinskiUmut Gunes: 90 passningar, xT 0.09GunesAndreas Skov Olsen: 74 passningar, xT 0.71OlsenAbbosbek Fayzullaev: 53 passningar, xT 0.08FayzullaevEldor Shomurodov: 42 passningar, xT 0.1Shomurodov
    Galatasaray
    Davinson Sanchez: 177 passningar, xT 0.26SanchezLucas Torreira: 168 passningar, xT 0.16TorreiraAbdulkerim Bardakci: 159 passningar, xT 0.65BardakciRoland Sallai: 136 passningar, xT 0.58SallaiMario Lemina: 107 passningar, xT 0.04LeminaGabriel Sara: 105 passningar, xT 0.55SaraYunus Akgun: 95 passningar, xT 1.57AkgunIsmail Jakobs: 88 passningar, xT 0.45JakobsUgurcan Cakir: 73 passningar, xT 0.04CakirLeroy Aziz Sané: 53 passningar, xT 0.05SanéBaris Alper Yilmaz: 47 passningar, xT 0.48Yilmaz

    The teams in numbers

    Performanceİstanbul BaşakşehirGalatasaray
    Points47
    xPoints4.57
    xG per match1.73
    xGA per match1.40.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.43
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.03
    Playing styleİstanbul BaşakşehirGalatasaray
    Build-up efficiency0.310.33
    Field tilt0.590.71
    xT per match1.21.9
    xTA per match1.10.36
    Won balls, offensive half2631
    Pressing intensity0.210.21
    Pressing efficiency0.240.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.22
    Entries into the box per match1122
    Entries into the box against107
    Pass completion %0.820.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.79
    Passes per match456466
    Passes against per match375278
    Switches of play per match50.138
    Long balls per match5039
    Set piecesİstanbul BaşakşehirGalatasaray
    xG from free kicks00.07
    Corners per match4.45.4
    Corners against per match3.41.7
    xG per corner0.020.05
    xGA per corner against00.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.4
    Otherİstanbul BaşakşehirGalatasaray
    Throw-in control0.850.87
    The goalkeepersMuhammed Sengezer (İstanbul Başakşehir)Ugurcan Cakir (Galatasaray)
    Saves145
    Save %82%71%
    xG prevented51%76%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Galatasaray
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins İstanbul Başakşehir vs Galatasaray according to our model?

    The model gives Galatasaray a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: İstanbul Başakşehir 26%, draw 25%, Galatasaray 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    ErzurumsporErzurumspor
    0–4
    GalatasarayGalatasaray
    1 26%X 23%2 51%
    The model called the outcome
    RizesporRizespor
    0–2
    SamsunsporSamsunspor
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
    The model missed the outcome
    ÇorumÇorum
    0–1
    KasımpaşaKasımpaşa
    1 62%X 20%2 17%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.