Rizespor vs Alanyaspor: Prediction & Odds (7 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig7 September 202619°24,9 mm17 km/h

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RizesporPossession & high press

0–1

AlanyasporLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Rizespor (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Alanyaspor @ 4.53 (+34 %)

1 · Rizespor 45%X 26%30% Alanyaspor · 2

45%

26%

30%

Analysis: Rizespor – Alanyaspor

Sofia Andersson · 5 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Rizespor holds a 45% win probability, asserting their edge over a 30% shot for Alanyaspor, which emphasizes the hosts' form and statistical advantage. The most probable scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 13%, suggests a tight affair, but the 10% chance for a 1-0 home victory underscores Rizespor's defensive strength. Despite Alanyaspor's direct approach, their xG of 0.78 per match pales against Rizespor's 1.5, highlighting the home side's superior attacking prospects.

Rizespor's high press and possession play contrast sharply with Alanyaspor's low defensive block. This dynamic is likely to test the visitors' resilience, especially given the model's lean towards the hosts. However, with both teams to score at 54%, there might be moments of opportunity for Alanyaspor to capitalize on counterattacks. Rain is expected, which could dampen goal-scoring chances slightly, already considered in the 49% over 2.5 goals outlook.

While Rizespor emerges as the statistically favored team, value hunters might look to the away win at odds of 3.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this a 30% chance, offering a notable 17% edge. With a small head-to-head sample since 2023, current form and xG metrics matter more, suggesting a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline without ignoring the enticing away value.

Rizespor

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #4xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Qazim LaçiFxG 0.33 · xT 0.24
Ahmed KutucuLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.08
Attila MocsiCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.16

Alanyaspor

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #17xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Florent HadergjonajRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
Gaius MakoutaCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Baran GezekFxG 0.00 · xT -0.01

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rizespor 45% · Draw 26% · Alanyaspor 30%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AlanyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,58fair 13,09+4 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Çaykur RizesporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,94fair 9,71-29 %

Miss

Match prediction: Rizespor – Alanyaspor

Predicted score matrix

Alanyaspor →

Rizespor →

0–07.6%

0–18.4%

0–25.3%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.9%

1–112.8%

1–27.5%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.2%

2–18.8%

2–25.3%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.4%

3–14.1%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,41–1,21

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.88

Over 2,549%

@1.99

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rizespor or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rizespor or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Ali Sowe to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Ali Sowe to score25%
Nicolas Jean Paul Noel Janvier to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Alanyaspor30% probability@4.53PinnacleEV+34%reference odds
2 · Alanyaspor30% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
2 · Alanyaspor30% probability@3.95BetssonEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rizespor	X	2 · Alanyaspor
Betsafe	1.92	3.35	EV+ 17% 3.95
Betsson	1.92	3.35	EV+ 17% 3.95
Nordicbet	1.92	3.35	EV+ 17% 3.95
Pinnacle	1.87	3.51	EV+ 34% 4.53

Odds updated 7 Sept, 05:18

Odds movement

1-2 %

53 %48 %

1.90 → 1.87

X+4 %

30 %25 %

3.39 → 3.51

2+7 %

24 %19 %

4.24 → 4.53

Over 2,50 %

51 %46 %

1.99 → 1.99

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rizespor 1Draw 2Alanyaspor 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rizespor

Alanyaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rizespor (3–3)

Alanyaspor (3–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rizespor

Alanyaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rizespor

Alanyaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rizespor	Alanyaspor
Points	6	4
xPoints	5.2	4.2
xG per match	1.5	0.78
xGA per match	0.76	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.22

Playing style	Rizespor	Alanyaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.69	0.38
xT per match	1.2	0.49
xTA per match	0.85	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	29	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.12
Entries into the box per match	12	6
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.81	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.68
Passes per match	419	242
Passes against per match	344	466
Switches of play per match	39.7	17.9
Long balls per match	43	27

Set pieces	Rizespor	Alanyaspor
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	5.7	4.4
Corners against per match	3.3	2.7
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.23
First touch, defensive corners %	0.3	0.62

Other	Rizespor	Alanyaspor
Throw-in control	0.85	0.69

The goalkeepers	Yahia Fofana (Rizespor)	Paulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti (Alanyaspor)
Saves	8	12
Save %	80%	80%
xG prevented	72%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rizespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Alanyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rizespor vs Alanyaspor according to our model?

The model gives Rizespor a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rizespor 45%, draw 26%, Alanyaspor 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.