Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig6 September 202623°12 km/h

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TrabzonsporPossession control

5–0

GençlerbirliğiLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Trabzonspor (66%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 6.50 (+14 %)

1 · Trabzonspor 66%X 20%15% Gençlerbirliği · 2

66%

20%

15%

Analysis: Trabzonspor – Gençlerbirliği

Anna Karlsson · 5 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Trabzonspor's grip on possession will face a stern test against Gençlerbirliği's resilient defense, as the visitors arrive undefeated in their last five league matches. Despite this recent form, the model leans heavily towards a home win, assigning a 66% probability to Trabzonspor securing victory. This clash centers around whether Trabzonspor can convert their possession into goals against a team skilled at soaking up pressure and hitting on the break.

The head-to-head record since 2023 might raise eyebrows, with Trabzonspor losing both encounters. Yet, this small sample carries less weight than the current form and statistical expectations. The home side's 58% win rate at their own ground over 55 matches is not insignificant, pointing to their historical strength in front of their fans.

Expected goals further underscore Trabzonspor's advantage, with a prediction of 2.01 against Gençlerbirliği's 0.93. Although the visitors hold a slight edge in points and xPoints so far this season, the host's xG per match slightly exceeds that of the guests, highlighting a potential for more scoring opportunities. Trabzonspor's capacity to dominate possession might unlock Gençlerbirliği's disciplined defenses, pointing towards the most likely scoreline of 2-0.

The market sees potential for over 2.5 goals at 56% probability, suggesting an open game despite Gençlerbirliği's defensive discipline. The bookmakers offer value odds for a Trabzonspor win at 1.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, highlighting a 2% edge according to the model. This presents a tempting angle for punters seeking value, particularly given Trabzonspor's likelihood to control the game's flow. Backing the home side, despite the visitors' unbeaten streak, seems the sharpest play here.

Trabzonspor

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #15xT #10xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Ernest MuciRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.14
Mohamed Salah Hamed Mahrous GhalyRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.21
Noah José SavioloRWxG 0.11 · xT -0.01

Gençlerbirliği

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #15xP/match #10Points #2

Key players

Sékou KoïtaFxG 0.54 · xT 0.04
Adama Malouda TraoréRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.01
Ogulcan UlgunRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.04

Final score

5 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Trabzonspor 66% · Draw 20% · Gençlerbirliği 15%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - GenclerbirligiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 22,99fair 25,23-9 %

Miss

Matchresultat - TrabzonsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,30fair 5,46-21 %

Miss

Match prediction: Trabzonspor – Gençlerbirliği

Predicted score matrix

Gençlerbirliği →

Trabzonspor →

0–05.6%

0–14.6%

0–22.3%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.3%

1–110.2%

1–24.6%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.1%

3–16.7%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.7%

4+–15.3%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,01–0,93

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+18%

Under 2,544%

@2.28

Over 2,556%

@1.85EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Trabzonspor to win66%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Trabzonspor to win66%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Ebere Paul Onuachu to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Ebere Paul Onuachu to score33%
Oghenekaro Peter Etebo to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.518% probability@6.50Paddy PowerEV+14%reference odds
Over 3.534% probability@3.20Paddy PowerEV+9%reference odds
Over 2.556% probability@1.85Paddy PowerEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Trabzonspor	X	2 · Gençlerbirliği
Betsafe	1.45	4.15	EV+ 0% 6.90
Betsson	1.45	4.15	EV+ 0% 6.90
Nordicbet	1.45	4.15	EV+ 0% 6.90
Paddy Power	EV+ 1% 1.53	3.80	5.00
Pinnacle	1.47	4.77	6.65

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Trabzonspor win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.55 to 1.47 (−6%).

1-6 %

67 %57 %

1.55 → 1.47

X+13 %

27 %17 %

4.21 → 4.77

2+19 %

21 %11 %

5.57 → 6.65

Over 2,5-4 %

61 %51 %

1.73 → 1.67

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Trabzonspor 0Draw 0Gençlerbirliği 2

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Genclerbirligi are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Trabzonspor win 58% of their home matches all-time (55 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Trabzonspor

Gençlerbirliği

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Trabzonspor (4–4)

Gençlerbirliği (4–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Trabzonspor

Gençlerbirliği

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Trabzonspor

Gençlerbirliği

The teams in numbers

Performance	Trabzonspor	Gençlerbirliği
Points	4	7
xPoints	2.3	3.5
xG per match	1.2	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.28

Playing style	Trabzonspor	Gençlerbirliği
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.59	0.26
xT per match	0.92	0.61
xTA per match	0.92	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	26	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.25
Entries into the box per match	10	7
Entries into the box against	8	17
Pass completion %	0.8	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.7
Passes per match	416	272
Passes against per match	290	420
Switches of play per match	36.4	31.5
Long balls per match	38	33

Set pieces	Trabzonspor	Gençlerbirliği
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.01
Corners per match	6.3	3
Corners against per match	1.9	7.5
xG per corner	0	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.59

Other	Trabzonspor	Gençlerbirliği
Throw-in control	0.79	0.72

The goalkeepers	André Onana Onana (Trabzonspor)	Irfan Can Egribayat (Gençlerbirliği)
Saves	12	19
Save %	75%	91%
xG prevented	35%	81%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Trabzonspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Gençlerbirliği

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği according to our model?

The model gives Trabzonspor a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Trabzonspor 66%, draw 20%, Gençlerbirliği 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.