Süper Lig25°10 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    TrabzonsporTrabzonsporPossession control
    vs
    İstanbul Başakşehirİstanbul BaşakşehirPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Trabzonspor (44%)

    Trabzonspor – İstanbul Başakşehir · Süper Lig

    1 · Trabzonspor 44%X 26%30% İstanbul Başakşehir · 2

    Analysis: Trabzonspor – İstanbul Başakşehir

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Three consecutive wins place Istanbul Basaksehir in high spirits, yet the numbers tell a nuanced story. The models give Trabzonspor a 44% chance of winning, buoyed by a 57% home win rate over 54 matches. Istanbul Basaksehir may be riding a hot streak, but their recent success must navigate the turbulent waters of Trabzonspor's sturdy home form. The small head-to-head sample since 2023 tips significantly toward Trabzonspor with three wins and a draw. However, these four matches alone can't overshadow Istanbul Basaksehir's superior current form and expected goals.

    Trabzonspor's expected goals of 1.57 suggest a slight edge, but Istanbul Basaksehir are not far behind with 1.29. This sets the stage for a tightly contested affair. With both teams favoring possession control, the midfield battle could be fascinating, though it may also slow down the scoring opportunities. Yet, the model's 54% inclination towards over 2.5 goals hints at action, possibly stemming from quick transitions or set pieces rather than open play.

    Despite Trabzonspor's favourable home statistics, Istanbul Basaksehir's analytical edge in xPoints and xG per match suggests an equal clash. Trabzonspor's xGA of 1.4 per match presents an opportunity for their opponents, who boast an impressive xGA of just 0.48. It's as much about exploiting defensive lapses as it is about suppressing opponents' chances.

    The most likely scoreline according to the data is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12% probability. But for punters, the value might be in the 2-1 scoreline favouring Trabzonspor at 9%, especially given their historical resilience at home. While Istanbul Basaksehir shows an upper hand in analytical metrics, the betting angle leans towards a Trabzonspor win with a nod to both teams finding the back of the net. The over 2.5 goals at a 54% probability suggests a lean towards a match that could open up as fatigue sets in, potentially offering value for bettors looking to back Trabzonspor at favourable odds.

    TrabzonsporTrabzonspor
    Form LDWLD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #6xP/match #15Points #8
    Key players
    • Ebere Paul OnuachuFxG 0.60 · xT -0.01
    • Felipe Augusto da SilvaFxG 0.37 · xT 0.05
    • Ozan TufanRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
    İstanbul Başakşehirİstanbul Başakşehir
    Form WLWWW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #3xP/match #1Points #2
    Key players
    • Davie SelkeFxG 0.58 · xT 0.02
    • Amine HaritLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
    • Abbosbek FayzullaevRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: Trabzonspor – İstanbul Başakşehir

    Predicted score matrix

    İstanbul Başakşehir →
    Trabzonspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–17.0%
    0–24.8%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–08.7%
    1–111.9%
    1–27.5%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–07.1%
    2–19.1%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–14.8%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,57–1,29
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,546%
    @2.14
    Over 2,554%
    @1.65

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Trabzonspor or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.84

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Trabzonspor or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Ebere Paul Onuachu to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Ebere Paul Onuachu to score31%
    • Jakub Kałuziński to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · TrabzonsporX2 · İstanbul Başakşehir
    Betsafe2.123.503.15
    Betsson2.123.503.15
    Nordicbet2.123.503.15

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 13:36

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    47 %42 %

    2.10 → 2.12

    X+1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.45 → 3.50

    2-2 %
    32 %27 %

    3.20 → 3.15

    Over 2,5-1 %
    59 %54 %

    1.67 → 1.65

    Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Trabzonspor 3Draw 1İstanbul Başakşehir 0
    Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Istanbul Basaksehir come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Trabzonspor win 57% of their home matches all-time (54 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Trabzonspor
    İstanbul Başakşehir
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Trabzonspor (1–1)
    İstanbul Başakşehir (2–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Trabzonspor
    Mustafa Eskihellac: 60 passningar, xT 0.62EskihellacStefan Savic: 55 passningar, xT 0.08SavicBenjamin Bouchouari: 50 passningar, xT 0.02BouchouariChibuike Godfrey Nwaiwu: 50 passningar, xT 0.08NwaiwuRuslan Malinovskyi: 45 passningar, xT 0.09MalinovskyiWagner Fabrício Cardoso de Pina: 45 passningar, xT -0.06PinaAndré Onana Onana: 24 passningar, xT 0.05OnanaSidny Lopes Cabral: 22 passningar, xT 0.02CabralMetehan Mimaroğlu: 20 passningar, xT 0.03MimaroğluMelih Kabasakal: 18 passningar, xT -0.01KabasakalDoğuhan Aral Şimşir: 16 passningar, xT 0Şimşir
    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Jakub Kaluzinski: 63 passningar, xT 0.02KaluzinskiEmin Bayram: 56 passningar, xT 0.07BayramChristopher Operi: 55 passningar, xT 0.17OperiMuhammed Sengezer: 51 passningar, xT 0.09SengezerJerome Opoku: 48 passningar, xT 0.04OpokuOlivier Kemen: 32 passningar, xT 0.2KemenOmer Ali Sahiner: 31 passningar, xT 0.03SahinerAndreas Skov Olsen: 27 passningar, xT 0.53OlsenAbbosbek Fayzullaev: 19 passningar, xT 0.12FayzullaevEldor Shomurodov: 15 passningar, xT 0.1ShomurodovYusuf Sari: 8 passningar, xT 0.05Sari
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Trabzonspor
    Mustafa Eskihellac: 60 passningar, xT 0.62EskihellacStefan Savic: 55 passningar, xT 0.08SavicBenjamin Bouchouari: 50 passningar, xT 0.02BouchouariChibuike Godfrey Nwaiwu: 50 passningar, xT 0.08NwaiwuRuslan Malinovskyi: 45 passningar, xT 0.09MalinovskyiWagner Fabrício Cardoso de Pina: 45 passningar, xT -0.06PinaAndré Onana Onana: 24 passningar, xT 0.05OnanaSidny Lopes Cabral: 22 passningar, xT 0.02CabralMetehan Mimaroğlu: 20 passningar, xT 0.03MimaroğluMelih Kabasakal: 18 passningar, xT -0.01KabasakalDoğuhan Aral Şimşir: 16 passningar, xT 0Şimşir
    İstanbul Başakşehir
    Jakub Kaluzinski: 63 passningar, xT 0.02KaluzinskiEmin Bayram: 56 passningar, xT 0.07BayramChristopher Operi: 55 passningar, xT 0.17OperiMuhammed Sengezer: 51 passningar, xT 0.09SengezerJerome Opoku: 48 passningar, xT 0.04OpokuOlivier Kemen: 32 passningar, xT 0.2KemenOmer Ali Sahiner: 31 passningar, xT 0.03SahinerAndreas Skov Olsen: 27 passningar, xT 0.53OlsenAbbosbek Fayzullaev: 19 passningar, xT 0.12FayzullaevEldor Shomurodov: 15 passningar, xT 0.1ShomurodovYusuf Sari: 8 passningar, xT 0.05Sari

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTrabzonsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    Points13
    xPoints0.62.3
    xG per match0.912.3
    xGA per match1.40.48
    xG within 8s of winning the ball00.4
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.060.07
    Playing styleTrabzonsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    Build-up efficiency0.330.31
    Field tilt0.640.55
    xT per match1.11.6
    xTA per match0.890.56
    Won balls, offensive half3431
    Pressing intensity0.250.2
    Pressing efficiency0.320.18
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.19
    Entries into the box per match1013
    Entries into the box against76
    Pass completion %0.80.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.82
    Passes per match449423
    Passes against per match278401
    Switches of play per match44.932.6
    Long balls per match4936
    Set piecesTrabzonsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    xG from free kicks0.220
    Corners per match10.27.1
    Corners against per match3.12
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.120
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.331
    OtherTrabzonsporİstanbul Başakşehir
    Throw-in control0.871
    The goalkeepersAndré Onana Onana (Trabzonspor)Muhammed Sengezer (İstanbul Başakşehir)
    Saves34
    Save %75%100%
    xG prevented12%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Trabzonspor vs İstanbul Başakşehir according to our model?

    The model gives Trabzonspor a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Trabzonspor 44%, draw 26%, İstanbul Başakşehir 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    ErzurumsporErzurumspor
    vs
    GalatasarayGalatasaray
    1 26%X 23%2 51%
    RizesporRizespor
    vs
    SamsunsporSamsunspor
    1 40%X 29%2 31%
    ÇorumÇorum
    vs
    KasımpaşaKasımpaşa
    1 62%X 20%2 17%

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.