Lincoln Red Imps vs Larne: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 2026

Lincoln Red ImpsLow block & direct

Larne

The model's lean: 1 · Lincoln Red Imps (48%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.25 (+8 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Lincoln Red Imps 48%X 27%25% Larne · 2

48%

27%

25%

Analysis: Lincoln Red Imps – Larne

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A 48% chance for Lincoln Red Imps and a paltry 25% for Larne sets the stage in Gibraltar, but it's the 14% likelihood of a 1-0 scoreline that whispers the most compelling narrative. Lincoln Red Imps, buoyed by their superior expected goals of 1.35 compared to Larne's 0.92, look poised to nick a narrow victory. This is a clash where defensive solidity could shine, with both teams likely to keep things tight at the back.

Larne's recent form doesn't inspire much confidence. With only a quarter chance to come away with a win, their attacking prospects seem dim. The weather isn't mentioned, so we can assume conditions won't drastically alter the attacking dynamics. Yet, Lincoln Red Imps' home advantage and slightly better goal-scoring prospects tip the scales in their favor. The small head-to-head sample between these sides is not the most reliable barometer, but it casts enough shadow over Larne's chances to matter.

A 1-0 Lincoln Red Imps victory is the model's favored scoreline, bringing along just a 40% chance for the game to break the 2.5-goal mark. Both teams to score? A coin flip at 45%. The numbers beckon a low-scoring affair, underscored by the fact that the most likely draw outcome is a goalless 0-0 (11%). It's a match that looks destined for a grind, with few opportunities lighting up the scoreboard.

For those with a betting brain, the sharpest angle lies in the under 1.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, you have a juicy 3.25 on offer and a model-backed 8% edge — a tantalizing prospect for those willing to ride the undercurrent of this closely-fought contest. The model might not guarantee, but it certainly gives a nudge towards a dry scoreboard.

Lincoln Red Imps

Form WDLWL

League ranking xG #67xGA #71xT #66xP/match #65Points #29

Key players

Antonio Garcia MonteroRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
Armando Sosa PeñaCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Andre Tjay De BarrCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.15

Larne

Form LLLLW

Key players

Andrew RyanFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02
Levi Cooke IvesLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Sean GrahamLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Lincoln Red Imps – Larne

Predicted score matrix

Larne →

Lincoln Red Imps →

0–010.7%

0–19.2%

0–24.4%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.4%

1–013.5%

1–113.2%

1–25.9%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.4%

2–18.6%

2–24.0%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–04.2%

3–13.9%

3–21.8%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.9%

4+–11.8%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.2-09%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,35–0,92

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.78EV+7%

Over 2,540%

@1.92

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lincoln Red Imps to win48%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lincoln Red Imps to win48%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Nicholas Charles Pozo to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Nicholas Charles Pozo to score33%
Shaun Want to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.533% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.533% probability@3.25BetssonEV+8%reference odds
Under 1.533% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lincoln Red Imps	X	2 · Larne
Betsafe	2.05	3.20	3.45
Betsson	2.05	3.20	3.45
Nordicbet	2.05	3.20	3.45

Odds updated 18 Aug, 13:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Lincoln Red Imps win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 2.42 to 2.05 (−15%).

1-15 %

47 %37 %

2.42 → 2.05

X+2 %

34 %24 %

3.15 → 3.20

2+23 %

34 %24 %

2.80 → 3.45

Over 2,5+2 %

53 %43 %

1.88 → 1.92

Betsson · 12 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lincoln Red Imps

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Lincoln Red Imps (7–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lincoln Red Imps

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lincoln Red Imps

The goalkeepers	Jaylan Ernest Hankins (Lincoln Red Imps)	Larne
Saves	23	–
Save %	70%	–
xG prevented	48%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lincoln Red Imps vs Larne according to our model?

The model gives Lincoln Red Imps a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lincoln Red Imps 48%, draw 27%, Larne 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.