Conference League15°6,8 mm21 km/h

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    Shamrock RoversShamrock RoversLow block & direct
    vs
    KuPSKuPSCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Shamrock Rovers (42%)

    Shamrock Rovers – KuPS · Conference League

    1 · Shamrock Rovers 42%X 26%32% KuPS · 2

    Analysis: Shamrock Rovers – KuPS

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Shamrock Rovers FC and KuPS are set for a fascinating clash in the Conference League. With Shamrock Rovers FC holding a 42% chance of victory according to model probabilities, the numbers lean slightly in their favour. Yet, the most probable scoreline, 1-1, suggests a closely contested affair. The expected goals are nearly neck and neck, with Shamrock Rovers FC at 1.40 and KuPS at 1.30, indicating that both teams have the potential to find the back of the net.

    KuPS may come in with a points advantage, having accumulated 7 to Shamrock's 4. However, xPoints paint a different picture, with Shamrock Rovers showing an edge at 7.0 against KuPS's 6.6. This discrepancy hints at a potential misalignment in their league positions, suggesting Shamrock Rovers may not have gotten the results their performances deserved. Yet, KuPS's more efficient defensive numbers, conceding fewer expected goals on average, could prove crucial in a tight match.

    Shamrock Rovers FC, with their low defense and direct playing style, may face challenges against KuPS’s counter-attacking prowess. The rainy conditions, with 2.2 mm of rain expected, could suppress goal-scoring opportunities slightly, though the model's numbers have already factored this in. Still, the slight edge in xG per match favours Shamrock Rovers FC, hinting they might just carve out the narrowest of victories.

    Given the finely balanced nature of this matchup, a narrow 1-0 victory for Shamrock Rovers FC seems to be the most likely outcome. The over 2.5 goals market sits at a tantalizing 51%, but the weather and playing styles might just tip it towards the under. For those seeking a sharp betting angle, Shamrock Rovers FC to win at home comes with intrinsic value, especially if you can secure odds north of evens. Keep an eye on bookmaker offerings, as market fluctuations might offer a juicy opening pre-kickoff.

    Shamrock RoversShamrock Rovers
    Form LDLLW
    League ranking xG #34xGA #66xT #44xP/match #49Points #40
    Key players
    • Matthew HealyCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
    • Rory GaffneyFxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
    • Roberto Carlos LopesCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
    KuPSKuPS
    Form LDDLL
    League ranking xG #66xGA #58xT #53xP/match #70Points #28
    Key players
    • Clinton AntwiLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
    • Doni ArifiCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
    • Ibrahim CisséCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Shamrock Rovers – KuPS

    Predicted score matrix

    KuPS →
    Shamrock Rovers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–18.4%
    0–25.7%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–09.0%
    1–112.6%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.6%
    2–18.6%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–03.1%
    3–14.0%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,40–1,30
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    –
    Over 2,551%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Shamrock Rovers or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.02

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Shamrock Rovers or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Jonathan Swanson Afolabi Oyewole to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba to score27%
    • Matthew James Healy to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Shamrock Rovers
    KuPS
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Shamrock Rovers (7–13)
    KuPS (6–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Shamrock Rovers
    Matthew Healy: 246 passningar, xT 0.41HealyRoberto Carlos Lopes: 157 passningar, xT 0.19LopesDylan Billy Watts: 149 passningar, xT 1.07WattsCory O'Sullivan: 149 passningar, xT 0.37O'SullivanGraham Dylan Burke: 123 passningar, xT 0.57BurkeDaniel Cleary: 113 passningar, xT 0.19ClearyLee Grace: 83 passningar, xT 0.15GraceDaniel Grant: 77 passningar, xT 0.16GrantEdward McGinty: 74 passningar, xT 0.17McGintyAdam James Matthews: 71 passningar, xT 0.56MatthewsRory Gaffney: 46 passningar, xT 0.29Gaffney
    KuPS
    Johannes Kreidl: 222 passningar, xT 0.3KreidlTaneli Hamalainen: 156 passningar, xT 0.35HamalainenDoni Arifi: 149 passningar, xT 0.09ArifiSamuli Miettinen: 146 passningar, xT 0.18MiettinenOtto Ruoppi: 142 passningar, xT 0.37RuoppiClinton Antwi: 142 passningar, xT 0.45AntwiJaakko Oksanen: 134 passningar, xT -0.06OksanenPetteri Pennanen: 133 passningar, xT 0.09PennanenIbrahim Cissé: 115 passningar, xT 0.08CisséNiilo Kujasalo: 82 passningar, xT 0.09KujasaloBob Nii Armah: 82 passningar, xT 0.18Armah
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Shamrock Rovers
    Matthew Healy: 246 passningar, xT 0.41HealyRoberto Carlos Lopes: 157 passningar, xT 0.19LopesDylan Billy Watts: 149 passningar, xT 1.07WattsCory O'Sullivan: 149 passningar, xT 0.37O'SullivanGraham Dylan Burke: 123 passningar, xT 0.57BurkeDaniel Cleary: 113 passningar, xT 0.19ClearyLee Grace: 83 passningar, xT 0.15GraceDaniel Grant: 77 passningar, xT 0.16GrantEdward McGinty: 74 passningar, xT 0.17McGintyAdam James Matthews: 71 passningar, xT 0.56MatthewsRory Gaffney: 46 passningar, xT 0.29Gaffney
    KuPS
    Johannes Kreidl: 222 passningar, xT 0.3KreidlTaneli Hamalainen: 156 passningar, xT 0.35HamalainenDoni Arifi: 149 passningar, xT 0.09ArifiSamuli Miettinen: 146 passningar, xT 0.18MiettinenOtto Ruoppi: 142 passningar, xT 0.37RuoppiClinton Antwi: 142 passningar, xT 0.45AntwiJaakko Oksanen: 134 passningar, xT -0.06OksanenPetteri Pennanen: 133 passningar, xT 0.09PennanenIbrahim Cissé: 115 passningar, xT 0.08CisséNiilo Kujasalo: 82 passningar, xT 0.09KujasaloBob Nii Armah: 82 passningar, xT 0.18Armah

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceShamrock RoversKuPS
    Points47
    xPoints76.6
    xG per match1.40.77
    xGA per match2.11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.24
    Playing styleShamrock RoversKuPS
    Build-up efficiency0.320.36
    Field tilt0.360.42
    xT per match0.820.74
    xTA per match1.31.6
    Won balls, offensive half1723
    Pressing intensity0.240.26
    Pressing efficiency0.260.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.29
    Entries into the box per match1111
    Entries into the box against1820
    Pass completion %0.740.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.74
    Passes per match278457
    Passes against per match453418
    Switches of play per match15.730.2
    Long balls per match2638
    Set piecesShamrock RoversKuPS
    xG from free kicks00.03
    Corners per match3.73.2
    Corners against per match6.26.1
    xG per corner0.070.02
    xGA per corner against0.080.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.44
    First touch, defensive corners %0.380.7
    OtherShamrock RoversKuPS
    Throw-in control0.670.75
    The goalkeepersEdward McGinty (Shamrock Rovers)Johannes Kreidl (KuPS)
    Saves2035
    Save %61%81%
    xG prevented32%69%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Shamrock Rovers vs KuPS according to our model?

    The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shamrock Rovers 42%, draw 26%, KuPS 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.