FC Ryukyu vs Giravanz Kitakyushu: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

J3 League8 August 202628°67,7 mm78 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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FC RyukyuBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Giravanz Kitakyushu (37%)

Giravanz KitakyushuBalanced & physical

1 · FC Ryukyu 32%X 31%37% Giravanz Kitakyushu · 2

32%

31%

37%

FC Ryukyu

Form DLLDD

League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #14xP/match #20Points #16

Key players

Daisuke TakagiFxG 0.28 · xT 0.01
Junya SuzukiCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
Sho HiramatsuCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

Giravanz Kitakyushu

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #17xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Ryo NagaiFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
Seung-Jin KohFxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
Kaoru YamawakiRWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: FC Ryukyu – Giravanz Kitakyushu

Predicted score matrix

Giravanz Kitakyushu →

FC Ryukyu →

0–09.5%

0–111.0%

0–27.1%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.2%

1–113.4%

1–28.1%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.0%

2–17.5%

2–24.6%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.3%

3–12.9%

3–21.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,15–1,24

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

–

Over 2,543%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: FC Ryukyu – Giravanz Kitakyushu

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Four matches, four defeats. That's FC Ryukyu's stark record against Giravanz Kitakyushu since 2024. As they prepare to face each other again, the scales tip decidedly in favour of Giravanz Kitakyushu. With 56 points to FC Ryukyu's 40, and an xPoints comparison of 53.7 to 38.9, the visitor's superiority is evident. Their ability to consistently find the net—scoring in nine consecutive league matches—only adds to the narrative of dominance.

FC Ryukyu may argue that they are balanced and physical, but Giravanz Kitakyushu matches them stride for stride in that department, while boasting a slightly sharper attacking edge with an expected goals (xG) of 1.24 to Ryukyu's 1.15 per match. Moreover, Ryukyu's defence is notably more porous, with an xGA per match of 1.7 compared to Kitakyushu's 1.2, a vulnerability that the visitors will look to exploit.

Giravanz Kitakyushu opens with a statistical advantage, with the model giving them a 37% probability to win compared to Ryukyu’s 32%, and expecting a 1-1 draw or a narrow 0-1 away victory as the most likely scorelines. With a modest 43% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score, this clash isn't screaming goals, suggesting a tight, hard-fought battle under the soaking skies with 67.7 mm of rain expected.

The betting angle? The odds at Bet365 show real value with Giravanz Kitakyushu to win at 2.50. Given their historical upper hand and recent scoring streak, this appears to be the sharpest play in a match that leans towards under 2.5 goals, with Giravanz Kitakyushu grinding out another narrow victory.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

FC Ryukyu 0Draw 0Giravanz Kitakyushu 4

Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on J3 League data since 2024.

Key facts

Giravanz Kitakyushu have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Ryukyu

Giravanz Kitakyushu

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

FC Ryukyu (41–57)

Giravanz Kitakyushu (46–41)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Ryukyu

Giravanz Kitakyushu

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Ryukyu

Giravanz Kitakyushu

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Ryukyu	Giravanz Kitakyushu
Points	40	56
xPoints	38.9	53.7
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.7	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.22

Playing style	FC Ryukyu	Giravanz Kitakyushu
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.49	0.45
xT per match	0.86	0.82
xTA per match	1.2	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	19	24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.31
Entries into the box per match	10	11
Entries into the box against	15	13
Passes per match	386	300
Passes against per match	315	342

Set pieces	FC Ryukyu	Giravanz Kitakyushu
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.11
Corners per match	3.8	4.3
Corners against per match	6.8	5.5
xG per corner	0.05	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04

Other	FC Ryukyu	Giravanz Kitakyushu
Throw-in control	0.76	0.72

The goalkeepers	Hisaya Sato (FC Ryukyu)	Mitsuki Sugimoto (Giravanz Kitakyushu)
Saves	152	43
Save %	73%	72%
xG prevented	56%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Ryukyu vs Giravanz Kitakyushu according to our model?

The model gives Giravanz Kitakyushu a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Ryukyu 32%, draw 31%, Giravanz Kitakyushu 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.