01 · 2 legs
Safe
- DAC 1904 to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Slovak Super League27°19 km/h
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KomárnoCounter-attacks & crosses0–3
DAC 1904Possession controlThe model's lean: 2 · DAC 1904 (54%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.06 (+20 %)
Komárno – DAC 1904 · Slovak Super League
1 · Komárno 21%X 25%54% DAC 1904 · 2
21%
25%
54%
Analysis: Komárno – DAC 1904
Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work
Four matches into the history between Komarno and DAC 1904 since 2023, and we've already seen a telling trend: Komarno have yet to taste victory, standing at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. While a small sample size, it's enough to highlight DAC 1904's superiority in these encounters. Yet, the xPoints narrative tells a different story, with Komarno edging DAC 1904 by 0.7 in expected points, suggesting that the underdog may not be as toothless as the results suggest.
DAC 1904, with their 54% win probability according to the models, enter this match as favorites. Their possession-based style should allow them to dominate proceedings, but Komarno's counter-attacking strategy could capitalize on any overextensions by the visiting side. DAC 1904's expected goals of 1.82 to Komarno's 1.19 hints at a slight edge, though not a chasm between the sides. This could be a closer contest than the win probability indicates.
In terms of goals, the forecast is promising. With a 58% probability leaning toward over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score, the stage is set for an open game. Komarno’s approach may thrive against a possession-heavy side like DAC 1904, potentially leading to end-to-end action. Given the conditions and team tendencies, a 1-2 scoreline looms as the most likely result, aligning well with both sides' defensive vulnerabilities and attacking potentials.
For the betting enthusiast, the sharpest angle here lies in the goal markets. Pinnacle offers over 2.5 at odds of 2.06, a tasty value when the model rates it at 58%. For the more adventurous, over 3.5 at odds of 3.3 with Betsafe or Betsson carries an 18% edge, assuming you believe in fireworks. While a clean sheet for either side seems unlikely, the value undeniably sits in expecting goals aplenty.
KomárnoForm LWDLD
League ranking xG #10xGA #3xT #7xP/match #11Points #9
Key players
- Adam KrcikRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.25
- Robert PillarCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.08
- Ján BernátLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.17
DAC 1904Form LLWDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #3xP/match #7Points #5
Key players
- Ammar RamadanLWxG 0.50 · xT 0.16
- Giorgi GaguaFxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
- Simen Kristiansen JuklerødLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.59
Final score
0 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Komárno 21% · Draw 25% · DAC 1904 54%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - DAC Dunajská StredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,01fair 5,92+18 %
MissMatchresultat - KFC KomarnoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,46fair 13,86-25 %
MissMatch prediction: Komárno – DAC 1904
Predicted score matrix
DAC 1904 →
Komárno →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–18.6%
0–28.2%
0–35.0%
0–4+3.4%
1
1–05.5%
1–110.9%
1–29.7%
1–35.9%
1–4+4.1%
2
2–03.5%
2–16.3%
2–25.8%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.4%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.5%
3–22.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,19–1,82
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@1.85
Over 2,558%
@2.06EV+7%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- DAC 1904 to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Abdoulaye Gueye to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Abdoulaye Gueye to score28%
- Dominik Žák to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.558% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+20%
- 2 · DAC 190454% probability@2.17PinnacleEV+18%
- 2 · DAC 190454% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+15%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Komárno | X | 2 · DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.10 | 3.25 | EV+ 15% 2.12 |
| Betsson | 3.10 | 3.25 | EV+ 15% 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | 3.10 | 3.25 | EV+ 15% 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | 3.24 | 3.45 | EV+ 18% 2.17 |
Odds updated 16 Aug, 07:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 1.86 to 1.75 (−6%).
1+3 %
32 %27 %
3.14 → 3.24
X+1 %
30 %25 %
3.43 → 3.45
20 %
45 %40 %
2.17 → 2.17
Over 2,5+8 %
50 %45 %
1.91 → 2.06
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesKomárno 0Draw 2DAC 1904 2
Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Komárno
DAC 1904
Komárno (3–4)
DAC 1904 (3–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Komárno
DAC 1904
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Komárno
DAC 1904
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Komárno | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 4 |
| xPoints | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Komárno | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.65 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.4 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 368 | 394 |
| Passes against per match | 314 | 199 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.8 | 38.5 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 50 |
| Set pieces | Komárno | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| Other | Komárno | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Dlubac (Komárno) | Leandro Filipe de Almeida Dornelles (DAC 1904) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 6 |
| Save % | 82% | 86% |
| xG prevented | 94% | 29% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Komárno vs DAC 1904 according to our model?
The model gives DAC 1904 a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Komárno 21%, draw 25%, DAC 1904 54%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.