Red Bull Salzburg vs Hartberg: Prediction & Odds (1 Aug 2026)

Austrian Bundesliga1 August 202623°1,6 mm13 km/h

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Red Bull Salzburg

1–0

Hartberg

The model's lean: 1 · Red Bull Salzburg (69%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hartberg @ 9.77 (+35 %)

1 · Red Bull Salzburg 69%X 17%14% Hartberg · 2

69%

17%

14%

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 69% · Draw 17% · Hartberg 14%

Match prediction: Red Bull Salzburg – Hartberg

Predicted score matrix

Hartberg →

Red Bull Salzburg →

0–04.9%

0–13.8%

0–21.8%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.9%

1–19.1%

1–23.9%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.2%

2–19.8%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.2%

3–17.2%

3–23.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–07.5%

4+–16.6%

4+–22.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,20–0,88

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Red Bull Salzburg to win69%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Red Bull Salzburg to win69%
Over 2.5 goals59%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals59%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hartberg14% probability@9.77PinnacleEV+35%
X · Draw17% probability@5.90PinnacleEV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Red Bull Salzburg	X	2 · Hartberg
Pinnacle	1.29	EV+ 1% 5.90	EV+ 35% 9.77

Odds updated 1 Aug, 08:09

Odds movement

10 %

76 %71 %

1.29 → 1.29

X+3 %

19 %14 %

5.75 → 5.90

2+5 %

13 %8 %

9.30 → 9.77

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Red Bull Salzburg vs Hartberg according to our model?

The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Bull Salzburg 69%, draw 17%, Hartberg 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.