Austrian Bundesliga22°6,7 mm13 km/h

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    WSG TirolWSG Tirol
    1–1
    Sturm GrazSturm Graz
    The model's lean: 2 · Sturm Graz (51%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.11 (+11 %)

    WSG Tirol – Sturm Graz · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · WSG Tirol 20%X 30%51% Sturm Graz · 2
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: WSG Tirol 20% · Draw 30% · Sturm Graz 51%

    Match prediction: WSG Tirol – Sturm Graz

    Predicted score matrix

    Sturm Graz →
    WSG Tirol →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.0%
    0–111.5%
    0–29.2%
    0–34.7%
    0–4+2.6%
    1
    1–07.5%
    1–112.5%
    1–29.4%
    1–34.8%
    1–4+2.6%
    2
    2–04.0%
    2–16.2%
    2–24.8%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,02–1,55
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @2.11EV+11%
    Over 2,547%
    @1.77

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sturm Graz to win51%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Sturm Graz to win51%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%

    Combined probability

    21%

    Fair odds

    4.84

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.61

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.553% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+11%
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.68PinnacleEV+9%
    Bookmaker1 · WSG TirolX2 · Sturm Graz
    Pinnacle3.79
    EV+ 9%
    3.68    		1.98

    Odds updated 1 Aug, 10:08

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.90 → 3.79

    X-2 %
    28 %23 %

    3.75 → 3.68

    2+5 %
    52 %47 %

    1.89 → 1.98

    Over 2,5+1 %
    57 %52 %

    1.76 → 1.77

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins WSG Tirol vs Sturm Graz according to our model?

    The model gives Sturm Graz a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: WSG Tirol 20%, draw 30%, Sturm Graz 51%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.