EFL League OneValley Parade, Bradford16°17 km/h

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    Bradford CityBradford CityCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Peterborough UnitedPeterborough UnitedPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Bradford City (57%)

    Bradford City – Peterborough United · EFL League One

    1 · Bradford City 57%X 23%19% Peterborough United · 2

    Analysis: Bradford City – Peterborough United

    Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work

    Bradford City holds a decisive edge in this clash, sitting a hefty 24 points above Peterborough United in the standings. The model gives Bradford City a 57% chance of claiming victory, and with their historical home win rate at 62% from 24 games, the odds stack favorably for the Bantams. The hosts’ ability to counterattack and deliver crosses could exploit Peterborough United’s defensive frailty — their xGA of 1.6 per match is a glaring weakness. The expected goals model supports a 1.68 to 1.04 tilt toward Bradford City, reinforcing their status as favorites.

    Peterborough United’s focus on possession control might find itself thwarted by Bradford City’s more direct style. Despite the small head-to-head sample, Bradford City’s unbeaten record since 2023 — a win and a draw — hints at their psychological edge. Yet, with most likely scorelines indicating a 1-1 or a narrow 1-0, Peterborough might just keep it closer than the table suggests. Both teams to score is pegged at 53%, yet the potential for a low-scoring affair looms large, especially with Bradford’s preference for counterattacking play.

    Bradford City arrives with a clear advantage in xPoints, boasting 71.6 versus Peterborough’s 49.4, reflecting their superior season-long performance. Their xG of 1.4 per match against Peterborough’s 1.2 further outlines a potential edge in creating quality chances. With a 51% probability for over 2.5 goals, the narrative leans slightly toward a higher-scoring game, although weather conditions could temper that expectation.

    Peterborough's chances appear slim, as their meager 19% win probability suggests. However, for those looking for an edge in the betting market, a Bradford City win seems the smart play, particularly with bookmakers like Bet365 offering 2.10 odds for a home victory, which appears to hold value given the statistical leanings. A 1-0 win for Bradford City feels right, underscoring the theme of defensive resilience and opportunistic attacking — all wrapped up in what could be a tightly contested affair.

    Bradford CityBradford City
    Form DDWLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #3xT #5xP/match #8Points #5
    Key players
    • Tyreik Samuel WrightLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
    • Max Mcauley PowerCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
    • Stephen Peter HumphrysFxG 0.35 · xT 0.03
    Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United
    Form LDLDL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #22xT #13xP/match #23Points #18
    Key players
    • Brandon Singh KhelaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
    • Harry Paul LeonardFxG 0.34 · xT 0.04
    • Archie CollinsCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Bradford City – Peterborough United

    Predicted score matrix

    Peterborough United →
    Bradford City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.9%
    0–16.5%
    0–23.6%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–010.7%
    1–111.9%
    1–26.0%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.3%
    2–19.7%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–05.2%
    3–15.4%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.2%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,68–1,04
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @2.02
    Over 2,551%
    @1.82

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bradford City to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.43

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bradford City to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Kayden Pastel Dunn Jackson to score20%

    Combined probability

    6%

    Fair odds

    15.96

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Harry Paul Leonard to score21%
    • Harley Mills to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    61.51

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Bradford CityX2 · Peterborough United
    Betsafe1.683.654.95
    Betsson1.683.654.95
    Nordicbet1.683.654.95
    Pinnacle1.653.954.87

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 12:26

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    60 %55 %

    1.64 → 1.65

    X0 %
    26 %21 %

    3.94 → 3.95

    2-2 %
    22 %17 %

    4.96 → 4.87

    Over 2,5-2 %
    55 %50 %

    1.81 → 1.78

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Bradford City 1Draw 1Peterborough United 0
    Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Bradford City win 62% of their home matches all-time (24 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bradford City
    Peterborough United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Bradford City (58–53)
    Peterborough United (64–68)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 172 passningar, xT 0.42TourayMax Mcauley Power: 160 passningar, xT 0.7PowerAden William James Baldwin: 128 passningar, xT 0.42BaldwinJenson Metcalfe: 86 passningar, xT 0.31MetcalfeJoshua Tyler Neufville: 82 passningar, xT 0.38NeufvilleCurtis Anthony Tilt: 71 passningar, xT 0.08TiltGeorge Robert Lapslie: 69 passningar, xT 0.08LapslieJoseph Harris Wright: 68 passningar, xT 0.24WrightSamuel Colin Walker: 52 passningar, xT 0.16WalkerTyreik Samuel Wright: 44 passningar, xT -0.02WrightAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 36 passningar, xT 0.03Sarcevic
    Peterborough United
    Tom Lees: 256 passningar, xT 0.28LeesHarley Mills: 212 passningar, xT 0.63MillsJames Daniel Dornelly: 176 passningar, xT 0.77DornellyArchie Collins: 142 passningar, xT 0.3CollinsAlexander Michael Bass: 141 passningar, xT 0.28BassDavid Chukwudubem Okagbue: 125 passningar, xT 0.06OkagbueBenjamin Jack Woods: 86 passningar, xT 0.12WoodsAli Bina Dembélé: 82 passningar, xT 0.16DembéléBrandon Singh Khela: 59 passningar, xT 0.13KhelaHarry Paul Leonard: 55 passningar, xT 0.19LeonardKyrell Jeremiah Lisbie: 53 passningar, xT 0.03Lisbie
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bradford City
    Ibou Omar Touray: 172 passningar, xT 0.42TourayMax Mcauley Power: 160 passningar, xT 0.7PowerAden William James Baldwin: 128 passningar, xT 0.42BaldwinJenson Metcalfe: 86 passningar, xT 0.31MetcalfeJoshua Tyler Neufville: 82 passningar, xT 0.38NeufvilleCurtis Anthony Tilt: 71 passningar, xT 0.08TiltGeorge Robert Lapslie: 69 passningar, xT 0.08LapslieJoseph Harris Wright: 68 passningar, xT 0.24WrightSamuel Colin Walker: 52 passningar, xT 0.16WalkerTyreik Samuel Wright: 44 passningar, xT -0.02WrightAntoni Charles Sarcevic: 36 passningar, xT 0.03Sarcevic
    Peterborough United
    Tom Lees: 256 passningar, xT 0.28LeesHarley Mills: 212 passningar, xT 0.63MillsJames Daniel Dornelly: 176 passningar, xT 0.77DornellyArchie Collins: 142 passningar, xT 0.3CollinsAlexander Michael Bass: 141 passningar, xT 0.28BassDavid Chukwudubem Okagbue: 125 passningar, xT 0.06OkagbueBenjamin Jack Woods: 86 passningar, xT 0.12WoodsAli Bina Dembélé: 82 passningar, xT 0.16DembéléBrandon Singh Khela: 59 passningar, xT 0.13KhelaHarry Paul Leonard: 55 passningar, xT 0.19LeonardKyrell Jeremiah Lisbie: 53 passningar, xT 0.03Lisbie

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBradford CityPeterborough United
    Points7753
    xPoints71.649.4
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.37
    Playing styleBradford CityPeterborough United
    Build-up efficiency0.330.28
    Field tilt0.590.44
    xT per match0.960.82
    xTA per match0.80.92
    Won balls, offensive half3223
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.390.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.380.35
    Entries into the box per match1310
    Entries into the box against1013
    Pass completion %0.620.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.60.7
    Passes per match259367
    Passes against per match269277
    Switches of play per match23.216.3
    Long balls per match3326
    Set piecesBradford CityPeterborough United
    xG from free kicks0.060.06
    Corners per match5.64.4
    Corners against per match4.45.9
    xG per corner0.060.04
    xGA per corner against0.040.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.51
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.54
    OtherBradford CityPeterborough United
    Throw-in control0.680.72
    The goalkeepersSamuel Colin Walker (Bradford City)Alexander Michael Bass (Peterborough United)
    Saves105148
    Save %67%73%
    xG prevented45%63%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bradford City vs Peterborough United according to our model?

    The model gives Bradford City a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bradford City 57%, draw 23%, Peterborough United 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.