01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Chesterfield to win53%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoSMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield19°19 km/h
Läs på svenska
ChesterfieldPossession control0–1
Fleetwood TownCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Chesterfield (53%)
Chesterfield – Fleetwood Town · EFL League Two
1 · Chesterfield 53%X 26%22% Fleetwood Town · 2
53%
26%
22%
Analysis: Chesterfield – Fleetwood Town
Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work
With Chesterfield carrying a 53% win probability, their edge over Fleetwood Town is palpable. The numbers suggest a tight affair, yet one where Chesterfield holds the upper hand. Their recent form contrasts with the small head-to-head sample of just four matches since 2023, where both sides have shared the spoils evenly with one win apiece. Despite this limited sample, Chesterfield's control-oriented playing style could be pivotal in breaking down Fleetwood's defensive stance.
Chesterfield's position at the top of the League Two standings with 80 points compared to Fleetwood Town's 61 tells its own story. However, the expected goal metrics paint a slightly different picture: Chesterfield averages 1.3 xG per match, while Fleetwood Town edges them with 1.4. Defensively, Chesterfield concedes less with an xGA of 1.2 compared to Fleetwood Town's 1.4, suggesting they are more likely to keep the visitors at bay.
Fleetwood Town prefers the counter-attack and crossing approach, which may not yield many chances against a Chesterfield side accustomed to controlling possession. With expected goals for Chesterfield at 1.63 and Fleetwood Town at 0.93, the forecast leans towards a low-scoring game. The over/under 2.5 goals sits at 47%, indicating a tilt towards the under, while both teams to score is rated at 49%.
Chesterfield appears poised for a victory, with a 1-0 scoreline emerging as the most probable outcome. The odds suggest a slender margin, so a narrow win or a low-scoring draw seems likely. The weather holds no surprises, thus no dampening effect on the scoring potential.
The sharpest betting angle here is Chesterfield's victory, with Betfair offering an enticing EV+ play at 1.91 odds. Given their superior control and defensive record, Chesterfield is well-positioned to justify their favoritism and deliver a result that keeps their promotion push on track.
ChesterfieldForm DWWLD
League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #10xP/match #13Points #6
Key players
- Lewis GordonLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Tom NaylorCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
- Will GriggFxG 0.45 · xT -0.02
Fleetwood TownForm LWDDD
League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #2xP/match #12Points #15
Key players
- Ryan GraydonFxG 0.34 · xT 0.11
- Ethan EnnisRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.25
- Joshua Alan PowellLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Final score
0 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Chesterfield 53% · Draw 26% · Fleetwood Town 22%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ChesterfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,87fair 8,02-14 %
MissMatchresultat - FleetwoodBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 17,06fair 23,82-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Chesterfield – Fleetwood Town
Predicted score matrix
Fleetwood Town →
Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.1%
0–16.9%
0–23.4%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–012.2%
1–112.1%
1–25.5%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.2%
2–19.5%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.5%
3–15.2%
3–22.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,63–0,93
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.78
Over 2,547%
@2.06
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Chesterfield to win53%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Lee Bonis to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Lee Bonis to score29%
- Raffaele Cirino to be booked19%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Chesterfield | X | 2 · Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.78 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Betsson | 1.78 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | 3.40 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.58 | 4.44 |
Odds updated 15 Aug, 11:37
Odds movement
10 %
55 %50 %
1.83 → 1.83
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.49 → 3.58
2+5 %
24 %19 %
4.22 → 4.44
Over 2,5+1 %
49 %44 %
2.03 → 2.06
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesChesterfield 1Draw 2Fleetwood Town 1
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Chesterfield
Fleetwood Town
Chesterfield (71–57)
Fleetwood Town (57–58)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Fleetwood Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Fleetwood Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Chesterfield | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 80 | 61 |
| xPoints | 63.3 | 61.7 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Chesterfield | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 0.9 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.87 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.4 | 0.38 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 362 | 253 |
| Passes against per match | 232 | 264 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 21.2 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Chesterfield | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| Other | Chesterfield | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Zachary Hemming (Chesterfield) | Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 87 | 109 |
| Save % | 64% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town according to our model?
The model gives Chesterfield a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chesterfield 53%, draw 26%, Fleetwood Town 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.