Newport County vs Rochdale: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

EFL League Two15 August 2026Rodney Parade, Newport19°12 km/h

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Newport CountyCounter-attacks & crosses

Rochdale

The model's lean: 2 · Rochdale (55%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 6.80 (+75 %)

1 · Newport County 26%X 19%55% Rochdale · 2

26%

19%

55%

Analysis: Newport County – Rochdale

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Rochdale's 55% win probability puts them in the driver's seat against Newport County, an intriguing matchup that appears to favor the visitors. Rochdale’s current form is on the upswing, contrasting sharply with Newport County's recent struggles. The model leans towards Rochdale, and given their away performance, it's hard to argue against that stance.

Newport County has shown they can find the back of the net, averaging 1.66 expected goals. Yet, this is slightly overshadowed by Rochdale's 1.74, indicating that the visitors may just edge it. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1 signal a close contest, but Rochdale’s superior attacking edge could see them prevail with a 2-1 victory.

Weather conditions are not a factor in this match, allowing both teams to exploit their attacking capabilities without the dampening effect of rain or wind. With an over 2.5 goals probability at 66% and both teams expected to score at 67%, this has all the hallmarks of a high-scoring clash. The numbers suggest an entertaining game for neutrals, with defences perhaps taking a backseat.

Newport County might put up a fight, but Rochdale’s momentum and slightly better goal-scoring potential make them the favorites. While the expected goals suggest a tight game, the model’s confidence in Rochdale can't be ignored. For those looking to place a wager, the standout value here is on the over 4.5 goals market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering odds of 6.8, and the model seeing a 26% chance for this outcome, there’s a whopping 75% edge to exploit. If you're feeling adventurous, that's where the smart money might be.

Newport County

Form LWLWW

League ranking xG #24xGA #23xT #22xP/match #24Points #20

Key players

Sven Michael SpranglerCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Samuel Charles BraybrookeCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Nathaniel Opoku OnyinaFxG 0.28 · xT 0.04

Rochdale

Match prediction: Newport County – Rochdale

Predicted score matrix

Rochdale →

Newport County →

0–03.6%

0–15.5%

0–25.0%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.9%

1–05.2%

1–19.9%

1–28.4%

1–34.9%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.6%

2–18.0%

2–27.0%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.6%

3–02.5%

3–14.4%

3–23.9%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.4%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.7%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-15%

Expected goals

1,66–1,74

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@1.78

Over 2,566%

@2.02EV+31%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rochdale to win55%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Rochdale to win55%
Over 2.5 goals66%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.526% probability@6.80BetsafeEV+75%
Over 4.526% probability@6.80BetssonEV+75%
Over 4.526% probability@6.80NordicbetEV+75%

Bookmaker	1 · Newport County	X	2 · Rochdale
Betsafe	3.05	3.20	EV+ 25% 2.28
Betsson	3.05	3.20	EV+ 25% 2.28
Nordicbet	3.05	3.20	EV+ 25% 2.28
Pinnacle	3.16	3.25	EV+ 24% 2.27

Odds updated 12 Aug, 18:36

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Newport County

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Newport County (48–77)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Newport County

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Newport County

The goalkeepers	Jordan Wright (Newport County)	Rochdale
Saves	109	–
Save %	67%	–
xG prevented	54%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Newport County vs Rochdale according to our model?

The model gives Rochdale a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newport County 26%, draw 19%, Rochdale 55%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.