Premier LeaguePortman Road, Ipswich15°14 km/h

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    Ipswich TownIpswich Town
    vs
    SunderlandSunderlandLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Ipswich Town (54%)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Ipswich Town – Sunderland · Premier League

    1 · Ipswich Town 54%X 23%23% Sunderland · 2

    Analysis: Ipswich Town – Sunderland

    Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work

    Ipswich Town are in a peculiar spot, carrying a three-game losing streak into this Premier League fixture against Sunderland AFC. On paper, the odds seem stacked in Ipswich's favour, with a model probability of 54% backing their victory. The numbers suggest a likely 1-1 draw at 12%, but the lean is clearly towards a home win with 1-0 and 2-0 sitting close behind at 11% and 10% respectively.

    Sunderland AFC arrive without any notable streaks, but Ipswich's recent form is a concern. Yet, their expected goals of 1.70 to Sunderland's 0.97 indicate that the hosts are generating opportunities and could well snap their losing run here. Ipswich Town need to translate their chances into goals, a task Sunderland's defence shouldn't make overly difficult given their subpar away performances.

    Ipswich Town are the team to watch, and for good reason. Despite recent losses, their xG suggests they have the firepower to break through a Sunderland side that hasn't shown much resistance. The question is less about whether Ipswich will score, and more about whether Sunderland can muster a response. With both teams to score rated at 51% and over 2.5 goals sitting at a coin-flip 50%, the bookmakers expect a tightly-contested affair with limited fireworks.

    The sharpest angle in this matchup is the juicy value on Ipswich Town's win odds. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer it at 2.7, providing a significant edge of 46% based on the model's 54% probability for a home victory. This represents a substantial value bet for those willing to back Ipswich to crack their losing streak against a Sunderland side not known for away heroics.

    Ipswich TownIpswich Town
    Form LDLLL
    Key players
    • Sammie SzmodicsFxG 0.20 · xT 0.01
    • Leif DavisLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
    • Liam DelapFxG 0.38 · xT 0.04
    SunderlandSunderland
    Form LDDWW
    League ranking xG #18xGA #12xT #17xP/match #18Points #7
    Key players
    • Brian BrobbeyFxG 0.31 · xT -0.01
    • Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
    • Trai HumeRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Ipswich Town – Sunderland

    Predicted score matrix

    Sunderland →
    Ipswich Town →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.3%
    0–16.4%
    0–23.3%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.4%
    1–111.8%
    1–25.6%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.0%
    2–19.7%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.5%
    3–22.7%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.5%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,70–0,97
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @1.90
    Over 2,550%
    @1.92

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Ipswich Town to win54%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Ipswich Town to win54%
    • Under 2.5 goals50%
    • George David Eric Hirst to score22%

    Combined probability

    5%

    Fair odds

    21.01

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • George David Eric Hirst to score22%
    • Granit Xhaka to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    53.55

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Ipswich Town54% probability@2.70BetsafeEV+46%
    • 1 · Ipswich Town54% probability@2.70BetssonEV+46%
    • 1 · Ipswich Town54% probability@2.70NordicbetEV+46%
    Bookmaker1 · Ipswich TownX2 · Sunderland
    Betsafe
    EV+ 46%
    2.70    		3.252.62
    Betsson
    EV+ 46%
    2.70    		3.282.65
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 46%
    2.70    		3.302.65

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Ipswich Town have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ipswich Town
    Sunderland
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Sunderland (42–48)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sunderland
    Granit Xhaka: 280 passningar, xT 0.71XhakaNordi Mukiele: 202 passningar, xT 0.44MukieleReinildo Mandava: 166 passningar, xT 0.16MandavaEnzo Le Fée: 146 passningar, xT 1.36FéeNoah Sadiki: 139 passningar, xT 0.22SadikiTrai Hume: 138 passningar, xT 0.61HumeLutsharel Geertruida: 122 passningar, xT 0.12GeertruidaRobin Roefs: 119 passningar, xT 0.17RoefsOmar Alderete: 91 passningar, xT 0.1AldereteBrian Brobbey: 55 passningar, xT -0.19BrobbeyLuke Onien: 46 passningar, xT 0.05Onien
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sunderland
    Granit Xhaka: 280 passningar, xT 0.71XhakaNordi Mukiele: 202 passningar, xT 0.44MukieleReinildo Mandava: 166 passningar, xT 0.16MandavaEnzo Le Fée: 146 passningar, xT 1.36FéeNoah Sadiki: 139 passningar, xT 0.22SadikiTrai Hume: 138 passningar, xT 0.61HumeLutsharel Geertruida: 122 passningar, xT 0.12GeertruidaRobin Roefs: 119 passningar, xT 0.17RoefsOmar Alderete: 91 passningar, xT 0.1AldereteBrian Brobbey: 55 passningar, xT -0.19BrobbeyLuke Onien: 46 passningar, xT 0.05Onien
    The goalkeepersIpswich TownRobin Roefs (Sunderland)
    Saves–110
    Save %–71%
    xG prevented–53%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ipswich Town vs Sunderland according to our model?

    The model gives Ipswich Town a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ipswich Town 54%, draw 23%, Sunderland 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.