Troyes vs Paris FC: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Ligue 122 August 2026Stade de l'Aube, Troyes18°12 km/h

Troyes

Paris FCPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Troyes (45%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Troyes 45%X 28%27% Paris FC · 2

45%

28%

27%

Analysis: Troyes – Paris FC

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Forty-five percent signifies a distinct lean in the world of football probabilities, and that's exactly where Troyes stand in their clash against Paris FC. As Troyes welcome their visitors, the model tips them as likely winners, buoyed by an expected goals tally of 1.48 compared to Paris FC's 1.05. Such figures are not merely whispers but loud indicators that Troyes should be the sharper side on the day.

Paris FC, holding a modest 27% chance of victory, find themselves in a position that suggests a need for caution and perhaps a reliance on fortune. Their expected goals output pales next to Troyes, hinting at a struggle to capitalize on chances. With model probabilities leaning heavily towards Troyes, a 1-0 or 2-1 outcome seems more probable than a share of the spoils.

Troyes start with a sense of urgency, fueled by value opportunities in the betting market. At odds of 2.8 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the savvy punter finds a 26% edge, making a home triumph a tantalizing prospect. This is not a mere whisper of value but a call to arms for those looking to back a favourite with a promising return.

Despite the head-to-head history being a small sample, the overall narrative of this matchup is shaped more by current form and potential than by past skirmishes. Weather conditions, thankfully, do not play a role in this fixture — the numbers are pure and untempered.

A 1-0 victory for Troyes feels like the most fitting conclusion to this narrative, given their slightly superior edge in expected goals. The betting value is sharp, and if you’re in the market for a calculated risk, Troyes at 2.8 odds is the ticket.

Troyes

Form LLDLD

Paris FC

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #13xT #10xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Ilan KebbalRWxG 0.26 · xT 0.23
Maxime LopezCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
Moses SimonLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Troyes – Paris FC

Predicted score matrix

Paris FC →

Troyes →

0–08.3%

0–18.0%

0–24.4%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.4%

1–112.8%

1–26.5%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.7%

2–19.1%

2–24.8%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.3%

3–14.5%

3–22.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,48–1,05

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@2.15EV+15%

Over 2,546%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Troyes or draw (1X)73%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Troyes or draw (1X)73%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Simon Elisor to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Simon Elisor to score28%
Pierre Lees-Melou to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Troyes45% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
1 · Troyes45% probability@2.95BetssonEV+32%reference odds
1 · Troyes45% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+32%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Troyes	X	2 · Paris FC
Betsafe	EV+ 32% 2.95	3.35	2.35
Betsson	EV+ 32% 2.95	3.35	2.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 32% 2.95	3.35	2.35

Odds updated 19 Aug, 17:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.95

X-3 %

30 %25 %

3.45 → 3.35

2-2 %

42 %37 %

2.40 → 2.35

Over 2,5-2 %

58 %53 %

1.75 → 1.72

Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Paris FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Paris FC (47–50)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Paris FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Paris FC

The goalkeepers	Troyes	Kevin Trapp (Paris FC)
Saves	–	60
Save %	–	67%
xG prevented	–	41%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Troyes vs Paris FC according to our model?

The model gives Troyes a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Troyes 45%, draw 28%, Paris FC 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.