Aubagne vs Bastia: Prediction & Odds (14 Aug 2026)

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Aubagne

Bastia

The model's lean: 2 · Bastia (48%)

1 · Aubagne 23%X 29%48% Bastia · 2

23%

29%

48%

Analysis: Aubagne – Bastia

Oscar Nilsson · 12 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Aubagne's struggle to find the back of the net consistently this season is a glaring pattern that could define their upcoming clash against Bastia. With expected goals sitting at just 0.93 for the home side, they face a Bastia outfit that not only boasts a superior expected goal tally of 1.34 but also holds a 48% probability of taking all three points. Aubagne's inability to carve out and convert chances could be their undoing against a Bastia team that appears statistically poised to capitalize on such shortcomings.

Bastia, carrying the weight of bookmaker confidence, should take heart from the numbers. While a 0-1 win (13%) for the visitors is as likely as a 1-1 draw, the model leans toward Bastia's favor, suggesting they are more than capable of edging out a narrow victory. Aubagne may find solace in the 29% chance of a draw, but those odds hardly inspire confidence against a Bastia side perceived to have the upper hand.

Aubagne's home advantage could be mitigated by their offensive woes. Given that the over/under 2.5 goals sits at just 40%, and both teams to score is pegged at 45%, the match screams low-scoring affair, further underlined by the likelihood of a 0-0 (11%) result. Bastia's tactical discipline and Aubagne's struggle to penetrate organized defenses suggest that goals will be at a premium.

It's clear, then, where the value lies for punters: Bastia to win at odds of 2.10 with William Hill. The metrics supporting a Bastia victory are compelling. While nothing in football is guaranteed, the numbers favor a calculated punt on the visitors, aligning with their statistical edge. As the tension builds, bettors may find their best bet banking on Bastia to snatch a narrow victory, perhaps a judicious 0-1, reflecting the model's calculated forecast.

Aubagne

Bastia

Match prediction: Aubagne – Bastia

Predicted score matrix

Bastia →

Aubagne →

0–010.6%

0–113.4%

0–29.3%

0–34.1%

0–4+1.9%

1–09.2%

1–113.2%

1–28.6%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.7%

2–04.5%

2–16.0%

2–24.0%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.8%

3–01.4%

3–11.9%

3–21.3%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-113%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.0-29%
5.1-09%

Expected goals

0,93–1,34

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.68EV+1%

Over 2,540%

@2.05

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bastia to win48%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bastia to win48%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Félix Tomi to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Félix Tomi to score29%
Adem Tafni to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Bastia48% probability@2.88BetsafeEV+38%
2 · Bastia48% probability@2.88BetssonEV+38%
2 · Bastia48% probability@2.88NordicbetEV+38%

Bookmaker	1 · Aubagne	X	2 · Bastia
Betsafe	2.42	2.92	EV+ 38% 2.88
Betsson	2.42	2.92	EV+ 38% 2.88
Nordicbet	2.42	2.92	EV+ 38% 2.88

Odds updated 13 Aug, 12:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Aubagne win since 13 August — the odds have shortened from 3.10 to 2.42 (−22%).

1-22 %

42 %22 %

3.10 → 2.42

X-12 %

39 %19 %

3.30 → 2.92

2+37 %

48 %28 %

2.10 → 2.88

Over 2,50 %

55 %35 %

2.05 → 2.05

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 13/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Aubagne vs Bastia according to our model?

The model gives Bastia a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aubagne 23%, draw 29%, Bastia 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.