Fleury vs Amiens: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

National 17 August 202617°17 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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FleuryPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Fleury (59%)

AmiensPossession control

1 · Fleury 59%X 23%18% Amiens · 2

59%

23%

18%

Fleury

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #7xP/match #6Points #3

Key players

Valentin LavigneFxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
Jonathan Rivas-MarouaniFxG 0.21 · xT -0.02
Kévin FaradéFxG 0.59 · xT 0.05

Amiens

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #5xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Ahmed DiomandeRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
Gaëtan CourtetFxG 0.25 · xT 0.01
Ahmad El Hadary Ylan Clauvis RaheriniainaLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Fleury – Amiens

Predicted score matrix

Amiens →

Fleury →

0–06.0%

0–15.3%

0–22.8%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.4%

1–110.9%

1–25.2%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.1%

2–19.9%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.3%

3–16.2%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.5%

4+–14.5%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.3-06%

Expected goals

1,88–0,99

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Fleury – Amiens

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Fifty-four points to thirty-eight paints a vivid picture of the table dynamics as Football Club Fleury 91 welcomes Amiens SC. The hosts hold a significant lead in points, but the underlying xPoints tell a slightly different story, with Fleury at 44.5 and Amiens at 42.3. This suggests the gap isn't as wide as the table might imply. Nonetheless, Fleury’s control-oriented style and home advantage position them as favorites, with a 59% probability of clinching the win according to the model.

Football Club Fleury 91, with their superior possession game, will likely dominate the proceedings. Having an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.88 against Amiens' 0.99 demonstrates Fleury's capability of finding the back of the net more frequently. Their defensive solidity is almost on par with their visitors, as their xGA per match of 1.2 isn't far off from Amiens' 1.1. Yet, the marginal edge in offensive metrics points towards a Fleury victory.

Amiens SC might struggle to capitalize on their slightly superior xGA, as their offensive production mirrors Fleury's at 1.2 xG per match. With both teams preferring possession, the clash will likely see measured build-ups rather than frantic end-to-end football. The model suggests a close contest but leans towards Fleury with a slight 10% probability for both the 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines, which aligns with their solid xG numbers.

The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced, with a slight 55% tilt towards the over, suggesting a 2-1 Fleury win isn't outlandish. However, the most prudent prediction given the data remains a narrow 1-0 victory for the home side.

As for the sharpest angle, Bet365's 11/10 on Fleury to win presents an intriguing value, given the 59% probability suggested by the model. While never a guarantee, it aligns with both the analytical edge and the formbook, making it the standout play for this fixture.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fleury

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Fleury (47–30)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fleury

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fleury

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fleury	Amiens
Points	54	38
xPoints	44.5	42.3
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.17

Playing style	Fleury	Amiens
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.3
Field tilt	0.52	0.57
xT per match	0.96	0.99
xTA per match	1	0.9
Won balls, offensive half	26	30
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.38	0.36
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	11	9
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	337	378
Passes against per match	304	334
Switches of play per match	22.1	34.1
Long balls per match	33	40

Set pieces	Fleury	Amiens
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.09
Corners per match	4.8	5.3
Corners against per match	6.1	4.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.54

Other	Fleury	Amiens
Throw-in control	0.67	0.73

The goalkeepers	Gael Alette (Fleury)	Amiens
Saves	98	–
Save %	77%	–
xG prevented	50%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fleury vs Amiens according to our model?

The model gives Fleury a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fleury 59%, draw 23%, Amiens 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.