Concarneau vs Orléans: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

National 17 August 202620°21 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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ConcarneauPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Orléans (37%)

OrléansPossession control

1 · Concarneau 33%X 31%37% Orléans · 2

33%

31%

37%

Concarneau

Form DWDDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #4xT #10xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Sohan BaldoniFxG 0.28 · xT 0.13
Flavio da SilvaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.15
Jordan Jessy TellFxG 0.23 · xT 0.03

Orléans

Form WLDWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #1xP/match #5Points #6

Key players

Fahd El KhoumistiFxG 0.56 · xT 0.11
Guillaume KhousRWxG 0.1 · xT 0.16
Jimmy GiraudonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Concarneau – Orléans

Predicted score matrix

Orléans →

Concarneau →

0–09.1%

0–111.2%

0–27.6%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.4%

1–113.2%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–05.5%

2–17.2%

2–24.8%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.0%

3–12.7%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,12–1,32

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

–

Over 2,544%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Concarneau – Orléans

Marcus Johansson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Orleans might have the upper hand if you trust the model probabilities, pegging them at 37% to take the spoils against Concarneau's 33%. Yet, these numbers mask the intricate dance of data and form that underscore this National 1 clash. Concarneau have been a tough nut to crack recently, boasting an undefeated streak over their last six league fixtures. This resilience, paired with the historical head-to-head advantage of two wins out of four since 2024, raises eyebrows against the model's lean towards Orleans.

Concarneau open play with a possession-focused style that often suffocates opponents, matching Orleans' own tactical preference. This mirroring sets the stage for a battle of attrition rather than a goal-fest. The expected goals (xG) figures lean slightly towards Orleans at 1.32 against Concarneau's 1.12, hinting at a narrow margin. Yet, when xPoints are considered, Concarneau's 49.8 suggests an underestimation, as they outperform Orleans' 45.1. In essence, while Orleans might lead in raw points (51 vs 38), Concarneau's xPoints narrative suggests they've been more effective than the table implies.

Concarneau's defensive solidity is reinforced by an identical xGA per match at 1.1, matching Orleans. This further nudges the fixture towards a low-scoring prediction, with the over 2.5 goals probability at a modest 44%. The most likely stalemate at 1-1, predicted at 13%, fits snugly within this framework, although a sneaky 0-1 to Orleans at 11% looms just behind.

As for the betting angle, Bet365 offers Orleans to win at odds of 11/8, presenting a value opportunity given their edge in the win probability model. However, the safest punt in this contested affair could be backing the under 2.5 goals market, influenced by both teams' controlled pace and defensive metrics.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Concarneau 2Draw 1Orléans 1

Goals: 8–5 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on National 1 data since 2024.

Key facts

Concarneau are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Concarneau

Orléans

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Concarneau (32–37)

Orléans (42–42)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Concarneau

Orléans

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Concarneau

Orléans

The teams in numbers

Performance	Concarneau	Orléans
Points	38	51
xPoints	49.8	45.1
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.2

Playing style	Concarneau	Orléans
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.57
xT per match	0.87	1.2
xTA per match	0.84	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	25	27
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.37
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.73	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	304	385
Passes against per match	383	325
Switches of play per match	28	31.9
Long balls per match	38	34

Set pieces	Concarneau	Orléans
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	3.7	5.3
Corners against per match	4.5	3.7
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.6

Other	Concarneau	Orléans
Throw-in control	0.68	0.67

The goalkeepers	Vincent Viot (Concarneau)	Fei-Hong Faham (Orléans)
Saves	46	38
Save %	67%	72%
xG prevented	40%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Concarneau vs Orléans according to our model?

The model gives Orléans a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Concarneau 33%, draw 31%, Orléans 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.