Cannes vs Fleury: Prediction & Odds (14 Aug 2026)

National 114 August 202633°15 km/h

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Cannes

Fleury

The model's lean: 1 · Cannes (47%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.45 (+32 %)

1 · Cannes 47%X 23%30% Fleury · 2

47%

23%

30%

Analysis: Cannes – Fleury

Erik Lindberg · 12 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A 61% chance of over 2.5 goals suggests we're in for a lively affair between Cannes and Football Club Fleury 91. The expected goals tally leans narrowly towards Cannes at 1.64 to Football Club Fleury 91’s 1.49, a projection that highlights the fine margins in this National 1 clash. With Cannes favoured by the model at 47%, there’s a clear inclination towards a home victory, but it's not overwhelmingly one-sided given Football Club Fleury 91's 30% shot at success.

Cannes comes into this match with the wind in their sails and could see this as the perfect opportunity to assert dominance at home. Football Club Fleury 91, however, isn’t just going to roll over. With a 30% shot at winning, they’re likely to put up a fight. The most probable scoreline of 1-1 at 11% suggests a tight battle, but the 9% chance of a 2-1 win for Cannes aligns with their slight edge in both model probabilities and expected goals.

Football Club Fleury 91's ability to find the net shouldn’t be underestimated. The data shows a 63% likelihood of both teams scoring, making it plausible that neither side will keep a clean sheet. Given these offensive capabilities and the goal-friendly nature of this matchup, the prospect of seeing at least three goals is significant. Even with a small head-to-head sample size, which limits its predictive power, the numbers point to action aplenty.

The weather isn’t expected to dampen the proceedings, so goals might flow freely. The model's lean towards Cannes combined with value odds from BetRegal offering 2.10 for a home win could be a tempting punt for the shrewd bettor. While nothing is guaranteed in football, backing Cannes in this scenario appears to be shrewd, especially with the statistical backing and the juicy odds on offer.

Cannes

Fleury

Match prediction: Cannes – Fleury

Predicted score matrix

Fleury →

Cannes →

0–04.7%

0–16.2%

0–24.9%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.3%

1–06.9%

1–111.0%

1–28.0%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.9%

2–18.7%

2–26.5%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.7%

3–03.2%

3–14.8%

3–23.6%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.8%

4+–22.1%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,64–1,49

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@1.72

Over 2,561%

@2.00EV+21%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Cannes to win47%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Cannes to win47%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Cédric Gonçalves to score15%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Jonathan Rivas-Marouani to score19%
Freddy Colombo to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.538% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+32%
Over 3.538% probability@3.45BetssonEV+32%
Over 3.538% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+32%

Bookmaker	1 · Cannes	X	2 · Fleury
Betsafe	1.95	3.20	EV+ 7% 3.60
Betsson	1.95	3.20	EV+ 7% 3.60
Nordicbet	1.95	3.20	EV+ 7% 3.60

Odds updated 13 Aug, 08:35

Odds movement

1-7 %

49 %39 %

2.10 → 1.95

X-3 %

34 %24 %

3.30 → 3.20

2+16 %

32 %22 %

3.10 → 3.60

Over 2,5-2 %

51 %41 %

2.05 → 2.00

Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 13/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cannes vs Fleury according to our model?

The model gives Cannes a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cannes 47%, draw 23%, Fleury 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.