01 · 2 legs
Safe
- OFI Crete to win45%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Greek Super League22°18 km/h
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OFI CretePossession controlvs
VolosPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · OFI Crete (45%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.75 (+6 %)
OFI Crete – Volos · Greek Super League
1 · OFI Crete 45%X 28%27% Volos · 2
45%
28%
27%
Analysis: OFI Crete – Volos
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
OFI Crete FC is favored in this clash with a 45% chance of taking all three points against Volos NPS. The head-to-head record since 2023, though small, tilts in their favor with three wins from six encounters. Volos NPS, meanwhile, is mired in a dreadful run, having lost their last five matches. This streak casts a long shadow over their trip to Crete, where a revival seems unlikely given the current dynamics.
OFI Crete FC, with their possession-based style, will likely impose themselves on Volos NPS, who attempt a similar approach but have faltered in execution and results. The expected goals (xG) figures — OFI Crete FC at 1.40 and Volos NPS at 1.09 — suggest a slight edge for the hosts in attacking potential, not to mention their superior xPoints and points on the table. Despite Volos NPS producing a marginally higher xG per match at 1.1, their defense leaks more, making them vulnerable.
A 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline at 13%, followed by a 1-0 victory for OFI Crete FC at 11%. Both teams to score is just above the coin flip mark at 51%, while the probability for over 2.5 goals sits at 46%. The numbers imply a tight affair, with a slight nod towards a low-scoring outcome. The under 1.5 goals market presents intriguing value, with Betsson, Betsafe, and Nordicbet offering odds worth exploring — each promises a 5–6% edge according to the model.
Volos NPS's losing streak compounds the betting picture, painting a scenario where resilience doesn't seem forthcoming. Given the balanced possession stats and recent form, OFI Crete FC might just edge it, potentially 1-0. The under 1.5 goals bet stands out as a value play, especially if you buy into the narrative of a cautious, tightly contested match.
OFI CreteForm WLLLW
League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #12xP/match #9Points #9
Key players
- Eddie SalcedoFxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
- Giannis ApostolakisFxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
- Levan ShengeliaRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
VolosForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #6xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Saïd HamulićFxG 0.31 · xT 0.01
- Jan Carlos Hurtado AnchicoFxG 0.42 · xT 0.05
- Lazaros LamprouLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: OFI Crete – Volos
Predicted score matrix
Volos →
OFI Crete →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.6%
0–18.6%
0–24.9%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.2%
1–113.0%
1–26.9%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.1%
2–18.9%
2–24.9%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.8%
3–14.2%
3–22.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,40–1,09
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.93EV+3%
Over 2,546%
@1.84
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- OFI Crete to win45%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Taxiarchis Fountas to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Taxiarchis Fountas to score21%
- Giorgos Migas to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.528% probability@3.75BetssonEV+6%reference odds
- Under 1.528% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 1.528% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · OFI Crete | X | 2 · Volos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.08 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betsson | 2.09 | 3.23 | 3.43 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesOFI Crete 3Draw 2Volos 1
Goals: 12–5 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- OFI Crete FC dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- Volos NPS have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
OFI Crete
Volos
OFI Crete (43–55)
Volos (33–55)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
OFI Crete
Volos
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
OFI Crete
Volos
The teams in numbers
| Performance | OFI Crete | Volos |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39 | 32 |
| xPoints | 40.9 | 37.5 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | OFI Crete | Volos |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.6 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 303 | 300 |
| Passes against per match | 378 | 357 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.4 | 25.3 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 30 |
| Set pieces | OFI Crete | Volos |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 2.9 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.5 |
| Other | OFI Crete | Volos |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete) | Marios Siampanis (Volos) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 89 | 76 |
| Save % | 71% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins OFI Crete vs Volos according to our model?
The model gives OFI Crete a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFI Crete 45%, draw 28%, Volos 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.