01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Panetolikos or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
Greek Super League30°16 km/h
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PanetolikosLow block & directvs
Asteras AktorLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Panetolikos (37%)
Panetolikos – Asteras Aktor · Greek Super League
1 · Panetolikos 37%X 31%32% Asteras Aktor · 2
37%
31%
32%
Analysis: Panetolikos – Asteras Aktor
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
In the numbers game of Greek Super League football, Asteras Aktor's unbeaten streak in their last five league matches catches the eye against Panetolikos GFS. Despite the model probabilities slightly favoring Panetolikos GFS at 37%, there's a palpable tension in this matchup, given Asteras Aktor's historical dominance with three wins to one in their last six meetings. Yet, the head-to-head sample is small, urging a deeper look at current form and expected goals.
Panetolikos GFS finds themselves profiling as low defence & direct, a mirror image of Asteras Aktor's style. This alignment suggests a congested field, ripe for midfield battles rather than free-flowing attacking football. The expected goals tell a similar story: 1.23 for Panetolikos GFS to 1.04 for Asteras Aktor, a narrow edge that hints at a potentially cagey affair. The model's most likely scoreline, 1-1 at 14%, underscores the likelihood of a draw, with a 0-0 stalemate close behind at 11%.
Asteras Aktor have an edge in xPoints (44.0 to Panetolikos’ 39.8) and xGA per match (1.4 compared to 1.6 for Panetolikos GFS), suggesting a slight defensive advantage. Their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, 0.19 to Panetolikos' 0.15, points to a team capable of capitalizing on turnovers, a critical factor in direct play. Yet, with an over 2.5 goals probability of just 40%, and both teams to score at 46%, opportunities might be at a premium.
Panetolikos GFS might have the model’s favor, but Asteras Aktor's recent form and historical edge suggest value in the away side's resilience. The weather remains unmentioned, so no external factors muddy the picture. With a probable scoreline of 1-1 or 1-0 either way, the under 2.5 goals market appears attractive, reinforcing a low-scoring narrative. For those seeking a sharper angle, Asteras Aktor's unbeaten streak presents intriguing value, particularly if found at tempting odds with bookmakers. Keep an eye on their unbeaten run—it just might spur them to edge this clash.
PanetolikosForm LWDDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #11xP/match #14Points #11
Key players
- Youssouph Mamadou BadjiFxG 0.30 · xT 0.04
- Kosta AleksićFxG 0.22 · xT 0.04
- Alexandru Irinel MățanLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
Asteras AktorForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #13xP/match #10Points #10
Key players
- Federico MachedaFxG 0.23 · xT 0.02
- Evgeniy YablonskiyFxG 0.03 · xT 0.00
- Julian BartoloRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Panetolikos – Asteras Aktor
Predicted score matrix
Asteras Aktor →
Panetolikos →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.7%
0–110.4%
0–25.6%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–012.3%
1–113.6%
1–26.9%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–07.8%
2–18.1%
2–24.2%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.3%
3–21.7%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.0-110%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,23–1,04
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
–
Over 2,540%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Panetolikos or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Youssouph Mamadou Badji to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Youssouph Mamadou Badji to score18%
- Nikola Šipčić to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesPanetolikos 1Draw 2Asteras Aktor 3
Goals: 7–9 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Asteras Aktor dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- Asteras Aktor are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Panetolikos
Asteras Aktor
Panetolikos (35–51)
Asteras Aktor (36–49)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Panetolikos
Asteras Aktor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Panetolikos
Asteras Aktor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Panetolikos | Asteras Aktor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 36 | 36 |
| xPoints | 39.8 | 44 |
| xG per match | 0.92 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Panetolikos | Asteras Aktor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 0.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 310 | 287 |
| Passes against per match | 383 | 368 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.7 | 30.6 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Panetolikos | Asteras Aktor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| Other | Panetolikos | Asteras Aktor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Yevhen Kucherenko (Panetolikos) | Nikolaos Papadopoulos (Asteras Aktor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 67 | 76 |
| Save % | 72% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Panetolikos vs Asteras Aktor according to our model?
The model gives Panetolikos a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panetolikos 37%, draw 31%, Asteras Aktor 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.