Inter vs Monza: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Serie A22 August 2026San Siro, Milano24°2,2 mm6 km/h

InterPossession & high press

Monza

The model's lean: 1 · Inter (70%)Best value by the model: 2 · Monza @ 14.50 (+82 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Inter 70%X 18%13% Monza · 2

70%

18%

13%

Analysis: Inter – Monza

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Inter Milan's scintillating unbeaten streak in their last 10 league matches has them looking like the immovable object in this Serie A clash against a Monza side currently on a three-match losing skid. The numbers are stark and inescapable: Inter Milan hold a commanding 70% probability of securing a victory. This firm grasp on form is further bolstered by their robust expected goals of 2.32, compared to Monza's meager 0.75. Even the weather, with its light rain, seems unlikely to dampen the fervor of Inter's attacking prowess.

Monza, on the other hand, appear as the proverbial David staring down a Goliath. Their recent form and a solitary 13% chance of victory are mirrored by their struggles in recent outings. Although the sample size of their head-to-head encounters is too small to draw any definitive historical conclusions, the weight of current form tilts heavily in favor of the hosts.

The scoreline predictions add credence to the narrative: a 2-0 victory for Inter leads the probabilities at 12%, with a 1-0 and 3-0 trailing closely behind. With a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, there's a decent expectation for the nets to bulge more than a few times, although the likelihood of both teams scoring sits at a moderate 48%. The potential impact of the rain might temper any goal-fest, but it's unlikely to stymie Inter's momentum entirely.

For those with an eye on value, it is Monza's extreme underdog status that stands out. At odds of 14.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's an 82% edge for the audacious punter looking to chance a small stake on an upset. However, betting against Inter at home, where they win 71% of their matches, is a high-risk gamble. The smart money remains firmly on Inter Milan to continue their march with a tidy 2-0 victory.

Inter

Form DWWDD

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Marcus ThuramFxG 0.56 · xT 0.04
Pio EspositoFxG 0.51 · xT 0.07
Lautaro MartinezFxG 0.52 · xT 0.09

Monza

Form DDLLL

Key players

Daniel MaldiniFxG 0.20 · xT 0.07
Dany MotaFxG 0.22 · xT 0.03
Samuele BirindelliRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Inter – Monza

Predicted score matrix

Monza →

Inter →

0–04.9%

0–13.2%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.5%

1–18.3%

1–23.0%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.5%

2–19.4%

2–23.5%

2–30.9%

2–4+0.2%

3–09.7%

3–17.2%

3–22.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.1%

4+–09.7%

4+–17.3%

4+–22.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-011%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,32–0,75

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.25

Over 2,559%

@1.66

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Inter to win70%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Inter to win70%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Francesco Pio Esposito to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Francesco Pio Esposito to score28%
Pablo Marí Villar to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Monza13% probability@14.50BetsafeEV+82%
2 · Monza13% probability@14.50BetssonEV+82%
2 · Monza13% probability@14.50NordicbetEV+82%

Bookmaker	1 · Inter	X	2 · Monza
Betsafe	1.23	EV+ 1% 5.70	EV+ 82% 14.50
Betsson	1.23	EV+ 2% 5.75	EV+ 82% 14.50
Nordicbet	1.23	EV+ 2% 5.75	EV+ 82% 14.50

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

10 %

80 %75 %

1.23 → 1.23

X0 %

19 %14 %

5.75 → 5.75

20 %

9 %4 %

14.50 → 14.50

Over 2,50 %

60 %55 %

1.66 → 1.66

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches.
Associazione Calcio Monza have lost 3 in a row.
Inter Milan win 71% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Inter

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Inter (89–35)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Inter

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Inter

The goalkeepers	Yann Sommer (Inter)	Monza
Saves	65	–
Save %	70%	–
xG prevented	54%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Inter vs Monza according to our model?

The model gives Inter a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Inter 70%, draw 18%, Monza 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.