Udinese vs Como: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

Serie A22 August 2026Bluenergy Stadium, Udine23°16,2 mm7 km/h

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UdineseLow block & direct

ComoPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Como (53%)

1 · Udinese 20%X 27%53% Como · 2

20%

27%

53%

Analysis: Udinese – Como

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A 53% probability of a Como win loudly underscores the uphill battle Udinese Calcio faces. With Como on a three-match winning streak and dominating the xG tables, it’s no surprise the model leans heavily towards the visitors. While Udinese's direct playstyle might occasionally disrupt Como's high press, it’s unlikely to be enough to tip the scales in their favor.

Como's robust xG of 1.6 per match against Udinese Calcio's xGA of 1.5 suggests that the visitors will likely find the back of the net. Factor in Udinese's lower expected goals of 0.94 and Como's tighter defense with an xGA of just 0.96, and the visitors look poised to control the flow of the game. The historical head-to-head is a small sample with its limited four games since 2021, but even there, Como holds a slight edge.

Weather could be a dampening factor, with 16.2 mm of rain expected, often a catalyst for lower-scoring affairs. This already plays into the 43% probability of over 2.5 goals, reinforcing a lean towards a tighter contest. The most likely scorelines, 0-1 and 1-1, both at 13%, reflect this expectation of a low-scoring encounter.

Udinese Calcio has its work cut out, and with the home advantage not counting for much in the numbers, Como's odds of capitalizing on their form rise. With a 0-1 victory for the visitors looking the likeliest of outcomes, savvy bettors might see value in backing Como to win at odds of 2.10 with Betfair. But remember, while probability and form point towards Como, surprises are the currency of football.

Udinese

Form DWWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #15xP/match #20Points #10

Key players

Keinan DavisFxG 0.34 · xT 0.05
Jurgen EkkelenkampLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Oumar SoletCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.09

Como

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #6xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Martin BaturinaLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.21
Lucas da CunhaCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.12
Máximo PerroneCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Udinese – Como

Predicted score matrix

Como →

Udinese →

0–09.5%

0–112.9%

0–29.7%

0–34.7%

0–4+2.4%

1–08.2%

1–112.8%

1–29.1%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.2%

2–04.0%

2–15.9%

2–24.3%

2–32.1%

2–4+1.0%

3–01.3%

3–11.8%

3–21.3%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-113%
2.1-113%
3.0-210%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

0,94–1,46

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

227%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.71

Over 2,543%

@2.16

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Como to win53%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Como to win53%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Anastasios Douvikas to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Anastasios Douvikas to score28%
Lennon Lee Miller to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Udinese	X	2 · Como
Betsafe	4.65	3.40	1.82
Betsson	4.70	3.40	1.82
Nordicbet	4.70	3.40	1.82

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

10 %

23 %18 %

4.70 → 4.70

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.40

20 %

55 %50 %

1.82 → 1.82

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.16 → 2.16

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Udinese 1Draw 1Como 2

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Como come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Udinese

Como

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Udinese (45–48)

Como (65–29)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Udinese

Como

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Udinese

Como

The teams in numbers

Performance	Udinese	Como
Points	50	71
xPoints	44.1	56.5
xG per match	1.1	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.18

Playing style	Udinese	Como
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.3
Field tilt	0.44	0.68
xT per match	0.7	1.1
xTA per match	0.86	0.58
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.37
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	10	9
Pass completion %	0.76	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.78
Passes per match	308	471
Passes against per match	385	267
Switches of play per match	22.1	28.3
Long balls per match	29	28

Set pieces	Udinese	Como
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.11
Corners per match	4.5	4.5
Corners against per match	4.8	3.2
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.57

Other	Udinese	Como
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Maduka Okoye (Udinese)	Jean Butez (Como)
Saves	82	89
Save %	72%	75%
xG prevented	44%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Udinese vs Como according to our model?

The model gives Como a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Udinese 20%, draw 27%, Como 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.