LR Vicenza vs Catanzaro: Prediction & Odds (21 Aug 2026)

Serie B21 August 2026Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza22°17,8 mm6 km/h

LR Vicenza

CatanzaroCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Catanzaro (67%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · LR Vicenza 15%X 18%67% Catanzaro · 2

15%

18%

67%

Analysis: LR Vicenza – Catanzaro

Sofia Andersson · 18 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

67% — that's the model's bullish take on Catanzaro's chances against LR Vicenza. With probabilities painting a clear picture, Catanzaro emerges as the heavyweight, bolstered by an expected goals tally of 2.00 compared to Vicenza's 1.03. The numbers speak: Catanzaro is not merely favored; they're expected to command the game. The backdrop of rain, with 27.0 mm expected, might dampen spirits but won't wash away their dominance. The weather often has its say, taming goal totals, yet even so, the model forecasts a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.

LR Vicenza, looking to defy the odds, have a slender 15% chance of victory according to the model. It's a stark reminder of their uphill battle against a Catanzaro side that has shown consistent form. The most probable scorelines tilt slightly in favor of a draw, with a 1-1 scenario on the cards, but equally poised are 1-2 and 0-2 victories for Catanzaro, each at 10%. This suggests that goals are in the offing, rain or shine.

Catanzaro struts into this match carrying the expectation of a win, and for good reason. The model identifies a lucrative betting opportunity, highlighting the value on an away win at odds of 2.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. It presents a tantalizing 77% edge, which is rare enough to command attention. These aren't mere hunches; they're calculated bets based on form and potential.

The betting landscape smiles on Catanzaro, with the model's confidence underscored by an attractive value proposition for the astute punter. For those inclined to back goals, the over 2.5 at 58% offers another angle. Yet, it's the away win at those standout odds that feels like the sharpest play on this rain-soaked Italian pitch.

LR Vicenza

Catanzaro

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #9xT #12xP/match #12Points #5

Key players

Pietro IemmelloFxG 0.32 · xT 0.05
Filippo PittarelloFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06
Simone PontissoCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: LR Vicenza – Catanzaro

Predicted score matrix

Catanzaro →

LR Vicenza →

0–05.1%

0–19.3%

0–29.6%

0–36.4%

0–4+5.1%

1–04.7%

1–110.3%

1–210.0%

1–36.6%

1–4+5.2%

2–02.6%

2–15.1%

2–25.1%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.7%

3–00.9%

3–11.8%

3–21.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-210%
4.0-19%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,03–2,00

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@1.68

Over 2,558%

@2.08EV+21%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Catanzaro to win67%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Catanzaro to win67%
Over 2.5 goals58%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals58%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Catanzaro67% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+77%reference odds
2 · Catanzaro67% probability@2.65BetssonEV+77%reference odds
2 · Catanzaro67% probability@2.65NordicbetEV+77%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · LR Vicenza	X	2 · Catanzaro
Betsafe	2.55	3.05	EV+ 77% 2.65
Betsson	2.55	3.05	EV+ 77% 2.65
Nordicbet	2.55	3.05	EV+ 77% 2.65

Odds updated 18 Aug, 18:36

Odds movement

10 %

38 %33 %

2.55 → 2.55

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.05 → 3.05

20 %

37 %32 %

2.65 → 2.65

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.08 → 2.08

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Catanzaro

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Catanzaro (70–55)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Catanzaro

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Catanzaro

The goalkeepers	LR Vicenza	Mirko Pigliacelli (Catanzaro)
Saves	–	104
Save %	–	68%
xG prevented	–	40%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins LR Vicenza vs Catanzaro according to our model?

The model gives Catanzaro a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: LR Vicenza 15%, draw 18%, Catanzaro 67%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.