Serie BStadio Druso, Bolzano22°2,1 mm4 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    SüdtirolSüdtirolLow block & direct
    vs
    Virtus EntellaVirtus EntellaCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Südtirol (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Virtus Entella @ 3.85 (+9 %)

    Südtirol – Virtus Entella · Serie B

    1 · Südtirol 42%X 30%28% Virtus Entella · 2

    Analysis: Südtirol – Virtus Entella

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The slender margins between Sudtirol and Virtus Entella make this Serie B clash a tantalizing prospect. Sudtirol holds a slight edge with 43 points to Virtus Entella's 42, but the underlying data suggests a more nuanced narrative. Expected points reveal Sudtirol should actually be leading by a somewhat comfortable margin of 57.8 to 55.5, tilting the balance even more in their favor. Yet, when it comes to expected goals per match, Virtus Entella take the spotlight with a minor lead of 1.4 over Sudtirol's 1.3. This discrepancy highlights the potential for Virtus Entella to be a thorn in Sudtirol's side, despite their current standings.

    Sudtirol is the model favorite at 42%, leaning on their defensive solidity, as indicated by an xGA of just 1.2. Their style of play is straightforward and direct, contrasting with Virtus Entella's more nuanced counter-attacking and crossing approach. These differing strategies could make for a chess match, where one defensive error or a moment of brilliance might tip the scales. With both teams capable of shutting down games, the numbers point towards a low-scoring affair. The most probable scoreline sits at an intriguing 1-0 to either side or a stalemate at 1-1, each with a 14% likelihood.

    Virtus Entella's recent head-to-head record against Sudtirol might give them a psychological edge, albeit in a small sample of two games. They have managed to avoid defeat, with one draw and one victory since 2023. Yet, this history pales in comparison to current form and expected goals metrics, which see Sudtirol as the marginally better-organized unit.

    With the over 2.5 goals market only at 35%, and both teams to score marked at 42%, expect a cagey affair—possibly a draw or a narrow Sudtirol win. However, the sharpest betting angle lies in the value bets for Virtus Entella to win at odds of 3.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model rating their chances at 28%, this represents a tempting 9% edge for those willing to back the underdog in this finely poised contest.

    SüdtirolSüdtirol
    Form LLDDD
    League ranking xG #12xGA #7xT #4xP/match #8Points #14
    Key players
    • Silvio MerkajFxG 0.34 · xT 0.06
    • Daniele CasiraghiLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.23
    • Jacopo MartiniFxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
    Virtus EntellaVirtus Entella
    Form DDWLW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #10xP/match #7Points #15
    Key players
    • Andrea FranzoniRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.09
    • Nermin KarićRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.18
    • Davide BaritiRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.29

    Match prediction: Südtirol – Virtus Entella

    Predicted score matrix

    Virtus Entella →
    Südtirol →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.8%
    0–110.8%
    0–25.0%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–014.3%
    1–113.6%
    1–26.0%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–08.7%
    2–17.9%
    2–23.6%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–13.1%
    3–21.4%
    3–30.4%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-014%
    2. 2.1-114%
    3. 3.0-013%
    4. 4.0-111%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,19–0,90
    Both teams to score
    42%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,1
    Under 2,565%
    @1.48
    Over 2,535%
    @2.48

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Südtirol or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 3.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    61%

    Fair odds

    1.65

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Südtirol or draw (1X)72%
    • Under 2.5 goals65%
    • Silvio Merkaj to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score42%
    • Over 2.5 goals35%
    • Silvio Merkaj to score26%
    • Ivan Marconi to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Virtus Entella28% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Virtus Entella28% probability@3.85BetssonEV+9%reference odds
    • 2 · Virtus Entella28% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SüdtirolX2 · Virtus Entella
    Betsafe2.022.92
    EV+ 9%
    3.85
    Betsson2.022.92
    EV+ 9%
    3.85
    Nordicbet2.022.92
    EV+ 9%
    3.85

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 05:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Südtirol 0Draw 1Virtus Entella 1
    Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Serie B data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Südtirol
    Virtus Entella
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Südtirol (38–48)
    Virtus Entella (36–51)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Südtirol
    Hamza El Kaouakibi: 161 passningar, xT 0.55KaouakibiSalvatore Molina: 138 passningar, xT 2.02MolinaSimone Davi: 136 passningar, xT 0.7DaviDaniele Casiraghi: 104 passningar, xT 0.93CasiraghiFrederic Veseli: 100 passningar, xT 0.15VeseliNicola Pietrangeli: 84 passningar, xT 0.14PietrangeliMarius Adamonis: 76 passningar, xT 0.13AdamonisSimone Tronchin: 75 passningar, xT 0.06TronchinEmanuele Pecorino: 59 passningar, xT -0.03PecorinoFabian Tait: 52 passningar, xT -0.12TaitMarco Frigerio: 34 passningar, xT 0.12Frigerio
    Virtus Entella
    Andrea Tiritiello: 167 passningar, xT 0.24TiritielloLuca Parodi: 141 passningar, xT 0.29ParodiNermin Karić: 127 passningar, xT 0.29KarićStefano Di Mario: 121 passningar, xT 0.56MarioIvan Marconi: 111 passningar, xT 0.24MarconiNiccolò Squizzato: 105 passningar, xT 0.08SquizzatoLeonardo Benedetti: 89 passningar, xT 0.08BenedettiDavide Bariti: 83 passningar, xT 1.07BaritiFederico Del Frate: 76 passningar, xT 0.09FrateFrancesco Mezzoni: 76 passningar, xT 0.59MezzoniBernat Guiu Vilanova: 65 passningar, xT -0.08Vilanova
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Südtirol
    Hamza El Kaouakibi: 161 passningar, xT 0.55KaouakibiSalvatore Molina: 138 passningar, xT 2.02MolinaSimone Davi: 136 passningar, xT 0.7DaviDaniele Casiraghi: 104 passningar, xT 0.93CasiraghiFrederic Veseli: 100 passningar, xT 0.15VeseliNicola Pietrangeli: 84 passningar, xT 0.14PietrangeliMarius Adamonis: 76 passningar, xT 0.13AdamonisSimone Tronchin: 75 passningar, xT 0.06TronchinEmanuele Pecorino: 59 passningar, xT -0.03PecorinoFabian Tait: 52 passningar, xT -0.12TaitMarco Frigerio: 34 passningar, xT 0.12Frigerio
    Virtus Entella
    Andrea Tiritiello: 167 passningar, xT 0.24TiritielloLuca Parodi: 141 passningar, xT 0.29ParodiNermin Karić: 127 passningar, xT 0.29KarićStefano Di Mario: 121 passningar, xT 0.56MarioIvan Marconi: 111 passningar, xT 0.24MarconiNiccolò Squizzato: 105 passningar, xT 0.08SquizzatoLeonardo Benedetti: 89 passningar, xT 0.08BenedettiDavide Bariti: 83 passningar, xT 1.07BaritiFederico Del Frate: 76 passningar, xT 0.09FrateFrancesco Mezzoni: 76 passningar, xT 0.59MezzoniBernat Guiu Vilanova: 65 passningar, xT -0.08Vilanova

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSüdtirolVirtus Entella
    Points4342
    xPoints57.855.5
    xG per match1.31.4
    xGA per match1.21.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.23
    Playing styleSüdtirolVirtus Entella
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.50.48
    xT per match1.10.95
    xTA per match0.930.93
    Won balls, offensive half3324
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.35
    Entries into the box per match1512
    Entries into the box against1211
    Pass completion %0.620.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.60.69
    Passes per match214286
    Passes against per match367342
    Switches of play per match1425.2
    Long balls per match2831
    Set piecesSüdtirolVirtus Entella
    xG from free kicks0.080.12
    Corners per match4.35.2
    Corners against per match3.94.8
    xG per corner0.050.05
    xGA per corner against0.050.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.51
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.55
    OtherSüdtirolVirtus Entella
    Throw-in control0.70.67
    The goalkeepersMarius Adamonis (Südtirol)Simone Colombi (Virtus Entella)
    Saves8874
    Save %68%64%
    xG prevented43%35%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Südtirol vs Virtus Entella according to our model?

    The model gives Südtirol a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Südtirol 42%, draw 30%, Virtus Entella 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 35% and under at 65%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 42% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.