Albirex Niigata vs Fujieda MYFC: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

J2 League22 August 202626°0,3 mm11 km/h

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Albirex Niigata

Fujieda MYFC

The model's lean: 1 · Albirex Niigata (38%)Best value by the model: 2 · Fujieda MYFC @ 3.20 (+5 %)

1 · Albirex Niigata 38%X 29%33% Fujieda MYFC · 2

38%

29%

33%

Analysis: Albirex Niigata – Fujieda MYFC

Marcus Johansson · 17 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Albirex Niigata has emerged as a team with a slight edge in this matchup, holding a 38% chance of victory according to the model probabilities. Given this contest's razor-thin margins, with Fujieda MYFC not far behind at 33%, it promises to be a tight affair. The weather could play a dampening role, with rain expected during the match. Historically, such conditions tend to suppress scoring, which the model has already accounted for in its assessment.

The expected goals tell an intriguing tale, as Albirex Niigata edges Fujieda MYFC with 1.27 to 1.12. This suggests a narrow advantage for Albirex, aligning with the model's lean towards them. Yet, with the most probable scoreline being a 1-1 draw (13%), the match could swing either way, keeping punters on their toes. In fact, with both teams to score at 49%, the statistics suggest a closely contested game with a strong likelihood of both sides finding the net.

Fujieda MYFC must certainly be wary of Albirex's potential sting in attack, as the 1-0 scoreline in favor of the home side holds an 11% probability. Meanwhile, Fujieda's away ambitions aren't entirely baseless, with a 0-1 victory sitting at 10%. The model's over 2.5 goals estimation stands at a mere 43%, reinforcing the idea of a low-scoring, tightly-fought battle, heightened by the inclement weather.

Albirex Niigata can seize this opportunity, but don't overlook the betting landscape. Offering a decent value bet, a win for Albirex Niigata can be found at 2.50 odds with Bet365, which aligns with their slight advantage in the model's eye. This bet isn't a sure thing, but it provides a solid angle for those looking to bet on the edge that Albirex holds in this finely poised encounter.

Albirex Niigata

Form LW

Key players

Yamato WakatsukiFxG 0.76 · xT 0.11
Kazuyoshi ShimabukuLWxG 0.10 · xT -0.01
Jin OkumuraRWBxG 0.18 · xT 0.03

Fujieda MYFC

Form DDLWW

Key players

Yusuke KikuiFxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
Maki KitaharaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.04
Yuto NagaoFxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Albirex Niigata – Fujieda MYFC

Predicted score matrix

Fujieda MYFC →

Albirex Niigata →

0–09.5%

0–19.8%

0–25.7%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.2%

1–113.4%

1–27.3%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.4%

2–18.3%

2–24.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.1%

3–13.5%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,27–1,12

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

227%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.62

Over 2,543%

@2.15

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Yamato Wakatsuki to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Yamato Wakatsuki to score30%
Yuto Nagao to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Fujieda MYFC33% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
2 · Fujieda MYFC33% probability@3.20BetssonEV+5%reference odds
2 · Fujieda MYFC33% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Albirex Niigata	X	2 · Fujieda MYFC
Betsafe	2.18	3.00	EV+ 5% 3.20
Betsson	2.18	3.00	EV+ 5% 3.20
Nordicbet	2.18	3.00	EV+ 5% 3.20

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1+10 %

46 %41 %

1.98 → 2.18

X-6 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.00

2-10 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.20

Over 2,5+1 %

46 %41 %

2.12 → 2.15

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Albirex Niigata

Fujieda MYFC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Albirex Niigata (2–2)

Fujieda MYFC (5–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Albirex Niigata

Fujieda MYFC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Albirex Niigata

Fujieda MYFC

The goalkeepers	Yudai Fujiwara (Albirex Niigata)	Shun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC)
Saves	4	6
Save %	100%	86%
xG prevented	100%	92%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Albirex Niigata vs Fujieda MYFC according to our model?

The model gives Albirex Niigata a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Albirex Niigata 38%, draw 29%, Fujieda MYFC 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.