Fujieda MYFC vs Vegalta Sendai: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

J2 League8 August 202627°1,8 mm12 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Fujieda MYFCPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Vegalta Sendai (39%)

Vegalta SendaiPossession control

1 · Fujieda MYFC 30%X 31%39% Vegalta Sendai · 2

30%

31%

39%

Fujieda MYFC

Form DLDDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #19xT #11xP/match #16Points #15

Key players

Ren AsakuraFxG 0.14 · xT 0.14
Kazuyoshi ShimabukuLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
Masahiko SugitaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.07

Vegalta Sendai

Form WLWDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #4xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Ko MiyazakiFxG 0.24 · xT 0.08
Yuta GokeFxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
Eronildo dos Santos RochaFxG 0.32 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Fujieda MYFC – Vegalta Sendai

Predicted score matrix

Vegalta Sendai →

Fujieda MYFC →

0–09.1%

0–111.1%

0–27.5%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.4%

1–09.5%

1–113.3%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–05.5%

2–17.3%

2–24.8%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.1%

3–12.7%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,13–1,31

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

–

Over 2,544%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Fujieda MYFC – Vegalta Sendai

Anna Karlsson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A model probability of 39% tilts the scale towards Vegalta Sendai, and for good reason. Their expected goals tally of 1.31 edges out Fujieda MYFC's 1.13, and their 62 points in the standings further underline a season of superior form. Yet, despite these advantages, Fujieda MYFC's historical head-to-head edge cannot be ignored, with two wins from six meetings since 2023. There's an old adage that styles make fights, and both teams' preference for possession control promises a tactical chess match.

Fujieda MYFC might be tempted to lean on historical precedent, having dominated this fixture with two wins and three draws in six encounters. Their knack for punching above their weight is evidenced by their xPoints of 47.0, notably higher than their actual haul of 39. This suggests a team capable of converting more than what the raw results might hint at, potentially setting the stage for another upset.

Vegalta Sendai's advantages, however, look more pronounced when you dive into expected goals against per match: a lean 1.1 compared to Fujieda MYFC's leaky 1.5. This defensive solidity, coupled with a slightly superior attacking output, points to a disciplined side likely to exploit any lapse in Fujieda's rearguard. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13%) underscores a cautious optimism for Fujieda, but the 0-1 (11%) hints at Vegalta's ability to edge out tight games.

With an average of 3.2 goals per meeting, this fixture historically leans towards the over, yet the current over 2.5 goals probability sits at a modest 44%. The odds are intriguing, but a 50% chance for both teams to score seems a more secure angle given their shared approach to the game. A 1-1 draw emerges as the statistical favorite, a result that would suit bettors who fancy both sides to find the net.

For those seeking value, the bookmaker offers odds of 2.60 for the draw, which aligns closely with the model's 31% probability. This suggests a reasonable value bet for those inclined towards a cautious punt.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Fujieda MYFC 2Draw 3Vegalta Sendai 1

Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Fujieda MYFC dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fujieda MYFC

Vegalta Sendai

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Fujieda MYFC (41–50)

Vegalta Sendai (47–36)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fujieda MYFC

Vegalta Sendai

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fujieda MYFC

Vegalta Sendai

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fujieda MYFC	Vegalta Sendai
Points	39	62
xPoints	47	58.6
xG per match	1.1	1.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.12

Playing style	Fujieda MYFC	Vegalta Sendai
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.51	0.57
xT per match	0.87	0.97
xTA per match	0.9	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	19	21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.36
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	12	9
Passes per match	307	343
Passes against per match	264	321

Set pieces	Fujieda MYFC	Vegalta Sendai
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.07
Corners per match	5.6	5.4
Corners against per match	4.6	4.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05

Other	Fujieda MYFC	Vegalta Sendai
Throw-in control	0.75	0.77

The goalkeepers	Kai Chidi Kitamura (Fujieda MYFC)	Akihiro Hayashi (Vegalta Sendai)
Saves	122	83
Save %	72%	72%
xG prevented	57%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fujieda MYFC vs Vegalta Sendai according to our model?

The model gives Vegalta Sendai a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fujieda MYFC 30%, draw 31%, Vegalta Sendai 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.