Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Yokohama FC: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

J2 League8 August 202629°2,8 mm27 km/h

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Tegevajaro Miyazaki

0–1

Yokohama FC

The model's lean: 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (46%)

1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 46%X 27%28% Yokohama FC · 2

46%

27%

28%

Analysis: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Yokohama FC

Marcus Johansson · 7 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

46% speaks volumes in this contest, giving Tegevajaro Miyazaki a robust edge over Yokohama FC. The numbers paint a clear picture: the home side has a commanding probability of victory, and the odds offered by Bet365 reflect a tempting 12% edge for the savvy punter. This isn't just numbers; it's a serious hint of where the smart money should go.

Yokohama FC, with a 28% chance, enters this clash as underdogs, and their expected goals tally of 1.08 does little to inspire confidence. Meanwhile, Tegevajaro Miyazaki's xG of 1.59 suggests they're not just favorites on paper but in potential performance too. An expected scoreline of 1-1 looms large at 12%, but with Miyazaki's attacking edge, a 1-0 or 2-1 result seems more in line with the hosts' form.

Weather might play the unwanted guest, with 17.4 mm of rain potentially dampening attacking endeavors. Historically, rain has a way of suppressing goal fests, but the model's numbers already consider this soggy reality. Yet, the over 2.5 goals market still holds value, particularly with Paddy Power offering these odds at 2.1, a 4% edge worth a second glance despite the rain clouds.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki, riding on the back of model probabilities and xG superiority, should be fancied to edge this one out. A 1-0 victory seems a logical end to a potentially tight affair, but don't dismiss a 2-1 result if they can find their stride amidst the wet conditions. For those inclined towards bolder bets, the over 4.5 goals market stands out at odds of 8.0 with Bet365, though it's a high-risk play with a smaller 5% edge.

The sharpest angle here? Backing Tegevajaro Miyazaki at 2.45 with Bet365 looks like the pick of the lot, providing substantial value and aligning neatly with what the numbers suggest.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Yokohama FC

Form WLLDD

Key players

Shion InoueCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Akito FukumoriCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
Yuri LaraCDMxG 0.21 · xT 0.02

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 46% · Draw 27% · Yokohama FC 28%

Match prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Yokohama FC

Predicted score matrix

Yokohama FC →

Tegevajaro Miyazaki →

0–07.3%

0–17.2%

0–24.0%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.7%

1–112.2%

1–26.4%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.8%

2–19.4%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.6%

3–15.0%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,59–1,08

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.79

Over 2,550%

@2.18EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win46%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win46%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Yusei Toshida to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Yusei Toshida to score34%
Hayato Sugita to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki46% probability@2.83PinnacleEV+29%reference odds
1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki46% probability@2.68Betfair ExchangeEV+22%reference odds
Over 4.513% probability@9.20Betfair ExchangeEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki	X	2 · Yokohama FC
Bet365	EV+ 12% 2.45	3.20	2.70
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 22% 2.68	3.30	2.94
Paddy Power	EV+ 0% 2.20	3.25	2.88
Pinnacle	EV+ 29% 2.83	3.11	2.64

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1+10 %

38 %33 %

2.58 → 2.83

X-5 %

32 %27 %

3.26 → 3.11

2-5 %

37 %32 %

2.79 → 2.64

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Yokohama FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2024

Yokohama FC (56–25)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Yokohama FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Yokohama FC

The goalkeepers	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	Akinori Ichikawa (Yokohama FC)
Saves	–	85
Save %	–	78%
xG prevented	–	51%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Fixtures, form & tips

Yokohama FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Yokohama FC according to our model?

The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 46%, draw 27%, Yokohama FC 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.