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    Jubilo IwataJubilo IwataPossession control
    1–1
    Blaublitz AkitaBlaublitz AkitaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Blaublitz Akita (36%)

    Jubilo Iwata vs Blaublitz Akita · J2 League

    1 · Jubilo Iwata 33%X 31%36% Blaublitz Akita · 2

    Analysis: Jubilo Iwata – Blaublitz Akita

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Two matches since 2023 and Jubilo Iwata have yet to claim even a draw against Blaublitz Akita. While Jubilo Iwata might boast a superior position on the league table with 64 points to Akita's 43, the gap in performance is less pronounced when delving into the expected metrics. Jubilo Iwata's expected goals (xG) per match is a mere 0.1 ahead of Akita, and their expected goals against (xGA) is only slightly better. The surface numbers may favor Jubilo Iwata, but the small head-to-head sample tilts toward Akita, albeit with caution.

    Jubilo Iwata are riding a five-match unbeaten streak in the league, a testament to their recent resilience. Their playstyle leans on possession control, which often results in tight matches with few chances for either side. This is reflected in their expected goals tally of 1.05 against Akita’s 1.11, suggesting a game that might not open up easily. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 at 14% and 0-1 at 12%, reinforce the notion of a low-scoring, closely contested affair.

    Blaublitz Akita’s model probability of 36% suggests they have a slight edge in this encounter, likely influenced by their success in the limited head-to-head meetings with Jubilo. Playing a low defensive block with a direct approach, Akita could frustrate a Jubilo side that prefers to dictate the pace. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at a modest 37%, with the chance of both teams finding the net standing at 44%. Weather might also suppress goals further, adding weight to the under 2.5 goals scenario.

    With the betting market in mind, two angles stand out. Pinnacle offers an enticing value (EV+) on Blaublitz Akita to win at odds of 2.92, aligned with the model’s 36% probability — suggesting a 6% edge. Simultaneously, the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.671 offers an identical edge. Given the playing styles and expected metrics, this clash is set to be a tactical chess match. A 0-1 scoreline for Blaublitz Akita feels like a plausible conclusion, with both bets offering tempting opportunities for the shrewd punter.

    Jubilo IwataJubilo Iwata
    Form WWWDW
    League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #5xP/match #14Points #5
    Key players
    • Matheus PeixotoFxG 0.44 · xT 0.04
    • Jordy CrouxRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.26
    • Rikiya UeharaCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
    Blaublitz AkitaBlaublitz Akita
    Form DLWDL
    League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #16xP/match #18Points #14
    Key players
    • Ren KomatsuFxG 0.45 · xT 0.03
    • Takuma MizutaniFxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
    • Masakazu YoshiokaRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Jubilo Iwata 33% · Draw 31% · Blaublitz Akita 36%

    Match prediction: Jubilo Iwata – Blaublitz Akita

    Predicted score matrix

    Blaublitz Akita →
    Jubilo Iwata →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.0%
    0–112.5%
    0–27.1%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–011.8%
    1–113.8%
    1–27.4%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–06.4%
    2–17.0%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–02.2%
    3–12.5%
    3–21.4%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.7%
    4+–10.8%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-012%
    4. 4.1-012%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,05–1,11
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,563%
    –
    Over 2,537%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Blaublitz Akita or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Blaublitz Akita or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals63%
    • Koya Handa to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals37%
    • Matheus Vieira Campos Peixoto to score24%
    • Daiki Kaneko to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Blaublitz Akita36% probability@2.82PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jubilo IwataX2 · Blaublitz Akita
    Pinnacle2.653.12
    EV+ 2%
    2.82

    Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    1+8 %
    40 %35 %

    2.45 → 2.65

    X-3 %
    32 %27 %

    3.23 → 3.12

    2-1 %
    35 %30 %

    2.85 → 2.82

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 06/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Jubilo Iwata 0Draw 0Blaublitz Akita 2
    Goals: 2–6 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Jubilo Iwata are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jubilo Iwata
    Blaublitz Akita
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Jubilo Iwata (59–51)
    Blaublitz Akita (43–59)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jubilo Iwata
    Takuro Ezaki: 165 passningar, xT 0.53EzakiDaiki Kaneko: 163 passningar, xT 0.06KanekoKen Masui: 155 passningar, xT 0.97MasuiJan Van den Bergh: 144 passningar, xT 0.46BerghKo Matsubara: 122 passningar, xT 0.39MatsubaraShun Nakamura: 101 passningar, xT 0.05NakamuraRicardo Graca: 95 passningar, xT 0.16GracaRikiya Uehara: 94 passningar, xT 0.49UeharaShion Inoue: 88 passningar, xT 0.24InoueEiji Kawashima: 76 passningar, xT 0.05KawashimaKoshiro Sumi: 56 passningar, xT 0.42Sumi
    Blaublitz Akita
    Takuma Mizutani: 66 passningar, xT 0.27MizutaniGenki Yamada: 64 passningar, xT 0.27YamadaDaiki Sato: 57 passningar, xT 0.1SatoRyuji Saito: 56 passningar, xT 0.22SaitoKota Muramatsu: 52 passningar, xT 0.05MuramatsuMasakazu Yoshioka: 47 passningar, xT 0.28YoshiokaTomofumi Fujiyama: 42 passningar, xT -0.01FujiyamaKosuke Sagawa: 40 passningar, xT 0.08SagawaTakumi Hasegawa: 34 passningar, xT 0.22HasegawaRyoya Iizumi: 33 passningar, xT 0.12IizumiRyohei Okazaki: 30 passningar, xT 0.11Okazaki
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jubilo Iwata
    Takuro Ezaki: 165 passningar, xT 0.53EzakiDaiki Kaneko: 163 passningar, xT 0.06KanekoKen Masui: 155 passningar, xT 0.97MasuiJan Van den Bergh: 144 passningar, xT 0.46BerghKo Matsubara: 122 passningar, xT 0.39MatsubaraShun Nakamura: 101 passningar, xT 0.05NakamuraRicardo Graca: 95 passningar, xT 0.16GracaRikiya Uehara: 94 passningar, xT 0.49UeharaShion Inoue: 88 passningar, xT 0.24InoueEiji Kawashima: 76 passningar, xT 0.05KawashimaKoshiro Sumi: 56 passningar, xT 0.42Sumi
    Blaublitz Akita
    Takuma Mizutani: 66 passningar, xT 0.27MizutaniGenki Yamada: 64 passningar, xT 0.27YamadaDaiki Sato: 57 passningar, xT 0.1SatoRyuji Saito: 56 passningar, xT 0.22SaitoKota Muramatsu: 52 passningar, xT 0.05MuramatsuMasakazu Yoshioka: 47 passningar, xT 0.28YoshiokaTomofumi Fujiyama: 42 passningar, xT -0.01FujiyamaKosuke Sagawa: 40 passningar, xT 0.08SagawaTakumi Hasegawa: 34 passningar, xT 0.22HasegawaRyoya Iizumi: 33 passningar, xT 0.12IizumiRyohei Okazaki: 30 passningar, xT 0.11Okazaki

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJubilo IwataBlaublitz Akita
    Points6443
    xPoints48.644.1
    xG per match1.21.1
    xGA per match1.31.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.220.23
    Playing styleJubilo IwataBlaublitz Akita
    Build-up efficiency0.320.37
    Field tilt0.60.44
    xT per match0.960.82
    xTA per match0.980.91
    Won balls, offensive half2026
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.32
    Entries into the box per match1112
    Entries into the box against1213
    Passes per match404165
    Passes against per match276337
    Set piecesJubilo IwataBlaublitz Akita
    xG from free kicks0.070.1
    Corners per match5.13.9
    Corners against per match4.65.6
    xG per corner0.030.08
    xGA per corner against0.060.05
    OtherJubilo IwataBlaublitz Akita
    Throw-in control0.760.72
    The goalkeepersEiji Kawashima (Jubilo Iwata)Genki Yamada (Blaublitz Akita)
    Saves6798
    Save %70%64%
    xG prevented49%43%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jubilo Iwata
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Blaublitz Akita
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jubilo Iwata vs Blaublitz Akita according to our model?

    The model gives Blaublitz Akita a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jubilo Iwata 33%, draw 31%, Blaublitz Akita 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.