Oita Trinita vs Shonan Bellmare: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

J2 League8 August 202627°2,2 mm14 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Oita TrinitaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Shonan Bellmare (36%)

Shonan BellmarePossession control

1 · Oita Trinita 33%X 31%36% Shonan Bellmare · 2

33%

31%

36%

Oita Trinita

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #2xT #20xP/match #10Points #16

Key players

Ren IkedaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Shinya UtsumotoLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.1
Manato YoshidaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.08

Shonan Bellmare

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #13Points #18

Key players

Wataru IwashitaLWxG 0.1 · xT 0.06
Keito KumashiroFxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
Thae Ha RiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Oita Trinita – Shonan Bellmare

Predicted score matrix

Shonan Bellmare →

Oita Trinita →

0–011.9%

0–111.6%

0–26.2%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.7%

1–012.5%

1–113.8%

1–27.0%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.2%

2–17.5%

2–23.9%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.7%

3–12.8%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-112%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,12–1,04

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,563%

–

Over 2,537%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Oita Trinita – Shonan Bellmare

Sofia Andersson · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Four losses on the trot for Oita Trinita. A streak like that saps confidence and invites pressure, especially when the margins are razor-thin at the bottom of the table. Despite holding a narrow lead in points, Oita's recent form is a glaring red flag. Their xPoints of 51.4 suggests they should be doing better, yet reality bites in the form of a bruising losing streak. Shonan Bellmare, just a point behind but with a model-backed 36% chance of winning, steps onto the pitch with a slight psychological edge.

Shonan Bellmare's possession-centric approach may serve them well against a faltering Oita side. Their xG per match of 1.2 indicates a slightly more threatening attack compared to Oita's 0.97. While Oita's defence edges out with an xGA of 1.1 against Shonan's 1.2, the physical toll of four consecutive defeats could tilt this into Shonan's favour. With the weather likely to be a wet affair at 26.9°C and 2.2 mm of rain, the possession game might be disrupted, adding an unpredictable twist to proceedings.

A 1-1 draw is the most probable scoreline at 14%, but the stats whisper that a 1-0 outcome for Shonan isn't far off at 13%. The under 2.5 goals market at 63% offers some clarity amidst the murky waters of this lower-table clash. Both teams to score at 44% suggests a cautious approach might dominate early play, further supporting an under lean.

Oita Trinita may have the points edge, but the model's slight nod to Shonan Bellmare can't be ignored, especially given Oita's current slump. The real value bet might be found in the Shonan Bellmare win with Pinnacle offering odds at 2.80. It's not a guarantee, but for those looking to gamble on form over statistics, it's a tempting prospect to end on.

Statistics

Key facts

Oita Trinita have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oita Trinita

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Oita Trinita (27–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

The teams in numbers

Performance	Oita Trinita	Shonan Bellmare
Points	38	37
xPoints	51.4	50.3
xG per match	0.97	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.19

Playing style	Oita Trinita	Shonan Bellmare
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.32
Field tilt	0.41	0.57
xT per match	0.64	0.92
xTA per match	0.85	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	21	21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.32
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	11	13
Passes per match	253	413
Passes against per match	365	319

Set pieces	Oita Trinita	Shonan Bellmare
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.06
Corners per match	4	5.4
Corners against per match	4.6	4.8
xG per corner	0.06	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06

Other	Oita Trinita	Shonan Bellmare
Throw-in control	0.69	0.71

The goalkeepers	Taro Hamada (Oita Trinita)	Shonan Bellmare
Saves	61	–
Save %	64%	–
xG prevented	57%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oita Trinita vs Shonan Bellmare according to our model?

The model gives Shonan Bellmare a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oita Trinita 33%, draw 31%, Shonan Bellmare 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.