Oita Trinita vs Shonan Bellmare: Prediction & Odds (8 Aug 2026)

J2 League8 August 202629°21 km/h

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Oita TrinitaBalanced & physical

0–1

Shonan Bellmare

The model's lean: 2 · Shonan Bellmare (36%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 9.40 (+12 %)

1 · Oita Trinita 33%X 31%36% Shonan Bellmare · 2

33%

31%

36%

Analysis: Oita Trinita – Shonan Bellmare

Sofia Andersson · 7 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

In the heart of the J2 League, Oita Trinita find themselves in a downward spiral, having lost their last four matches. It's a stark contrast to Shonan Bellmare's recent form, and it sets the stage for a fascinating clash. Despite the home advantage, Oita's struggles are reflected in the model probabilities, which lean slightly towards Shonan Bellmare at 36%, with a draw also in reasonable contention at 31%. The head-to-head record between these two sides is limited, which makes current form and expected goals a more reliable guide.

Shonan Bellmare might feel confident coming into this encounter, but it's the potential lack of goals that's catching the eye. With expected goals of 1.12 for Oita and 1.04 for Shonan, the numbers suggest a tight match. The most likely scorelines reflect this, with a 1-1 draw (14%) being the model's top pick, followed closely by a 1-0 win for either side. These predictions align well with the over 2.5 goals market, which sits at just 37%.

Oita Trinita's inability to find the back of the net in recent games could be further exacerbated by a cautious approach from Shonan Bellmare, who might prefer to exploit Trinita's shaky defense rather than go all-out attacking. Given the 44% chance of both teams scoring, the data hints at a cagey affair.

For those looking for value, Betfair Exchange offers a compelling angle with the under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.9, providing a significant 5% edge over the model's assessment. With the odds for under 2.5 goals at 1.63 and under 3.5 at 1.21, there’s a clear market expectation of a low-scoring match, but the sharpest play appears to be the under 1.5 if you're chasing higher returns. Keep an eye on the wind and rain, as adverse weather conditions could further tighten this already narrow contest.

Oita Trinita

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #2xT #20xP/match #10Points #16

Key players

Ren IkedaFxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Shinya UtsumotoLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
Manato YoshidaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.08

Shonan Bellmare

Final score

0 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Oita Trinita 33% · Draw 31% · Shonan Bellmare 36%

Match prediction: Oita Trinita – Shonan Bellmare

Predicted score matrix

Shonan Bellmare →

Oita Trinita →

0–011.9%

0–111.6%

0–26.2%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.7%

1–012.5%

1–113.8%

1–27.0%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–07.2%

2–17.5%

2–23.9%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.7%

3–12.8%

3–21.5%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-112%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,12–1,04

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,563%

@1.65EV+4%

Over 2,537%

@2.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (X2)63%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Shonan Bellmare or draw (X2)63%
Under 2.5 goals63%
Hiroto Yamada to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Hiroto Yamada to score21%
Yutaro Hakamata to be booked16%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.512% probability@9.40Betfair ExchangeEV+12%reference odds
Under 1.536% probability@3.00Betfair ExchangeEV+8%reference odds
1 · Oita Trinita33% probability@3.25Betfair ExchangeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Oita Trinita	X	2 · Shonan Bellmare
Bet365	2.90	3.00	2.40
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 6% 3.25	EV+ 1% 3.25	2.50
Paddy Power	2.80	3.00	2.38
Pinnacle	2.85	3.14	2.59

Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

1-2 %

35 %30 %

2.92 → 2.85

X0 %

33 %28 %

3.14 → 3.14

2+2 %

39 %34 %

2.55 → 2.59

Over 2,5-1 %

43 %38 %

2.37 → 2.34

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Oita Trinita have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Oita Trinita

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Oita Trinita (27–44)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Oita Trinita

The goalkeepers	Taro Hamada (Oita Trinita)	Shonan Bellmare
Saves	61	–
Save %	64%	–
xG prevented	57%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Oita Trinita

Fixtures, form & tips

Shonan Bellmare

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Oita Trinita vs Shonan Bellmare according to our model?

The model gives Shonan Bellmare a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oita Trinita 33%, draw 31%, Shonan Bellmare 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.