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    Sagan TosuSagan TosuBalanced & physical
    2–0
    Ventforet KofuVentforet KofuBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Sagan Tosu (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.63 (+3 %)

    Sagan Tosu vs Ventforet Kofu · J2 League

    1 · Sagan Tosu 53%X 28%19% Ventforet Kofu · 2

    Analysis: Sagan Tosu – Ventforet Kofu

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Fifty-three percent — that's the probability Sagan Tosu pulls this one off according to the model, and it's hard to look past those numbers. Sagan Tosu finds itself with a marked edge over Ventforet Kofu, having accumulated 58 points compared to Kofu's 44. The head-to-head record is a slim two-game sample offering a win and a draw for Sagan Tosu, which isn’t enough to dictate the narrative, yet it adds to the allure of the home side.

    Sagan Tosu opens the scoring in 1-0 and 2-0 scenarios with a combined 29% likelihood, underscoring the expectation of a tight affair. The xG numbers reinforce this: Sagan Tosu at 1.47 and Kofu lagging at 0.70. The model leans heavily towards an under 2.5 goals match, flagging a humble 37% chance of exceeding that mark. It’s a contest likely to unfold as a demonstration of physicality over flair, given both teams share a balanced and physical style.

    Ventforet Kofu simply doesn’t have the firepower or defensive solidity to tilt the odds in its favor. The team’s xG per match of 0.98 and xGA of 1.4 further highlight the uphill struggle they face against a more accomplished Sagan Tosu side. And with the model not fancying both teams to score—offering just a 39% probability—it's tough to imagine Ventforet Kofu making much of a mark.

    Two betting angles stand out: Sagan Tosu at home priced at 2.07 with Pinnacle presents value given a model-assigned 53% win probability. Meanwhile, the under 2.5 goals market offers a minor edge at odds of 1.595, driven by the low scoring expectations baked into the model’s forecast. If you're placing your chips, Sagan Tosu to edge it 1-0 is where the smart money leans.

    Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
    Form LDLDL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #15xP/match #6Points #8
    Key players
    • Shion ShinkawaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.00
    • Vykintas SlivkaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
    • Haruki AraiLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
    Ventforet KofuVentforet Kofu
    Form DLLLD
    League ranking xG #19xGA #15xT #19xP/match #19Points #13
    Key players
    • Yuto HiratsukaFxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
    • Yudai TanakaFxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
    • Sho ArakiLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sagan Tosu 53% · Draw 28% · Ventforet Kofu 19%

    Match prediction: Sagan Tosu – Ventforet Kofu

    Predicted score matrix

    Ventforet Kofu →
    Sagan Tosu →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.8%
    0–17.7%
    0–22.8%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–016.6%
    1–112.1%
    1–24.1%
    1–30.9%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–012.4%
    2–18.6%
    2–23.0%
    2–30.7%
    2–4+0.1%
    3
    3–06.1%
    3–14.2%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.3%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–03.1%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-017%
    2. 2.2-012%
    3. 3.1-112%
    4. 4.0-012%
    5. 5.2-19%
    Expected goals
    1,47–0,70
    Both teams to score
    39%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,563%
    @1.63EV+3%
    Over 2,537%
    @2.20

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sagan Tosu to win53%
    • Under 3.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.29

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sagan Tosu to win53%
    • Under 2.5 goals63%
    • Ryo Shiohama to score38%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score39%
    • Over 2.5 goals37%
    • Ryo Shiohama to score38%
    • Riku Nozawa to be booked16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.563% probability@1.63PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • X · Draw28% probability@3.62PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sagan TosuX2 · Ventforet Kofu
    Pinnacle1.83
    EV+ 0%
    3.62    		4.24

    Odds updated 8 Aug, 10:09

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Sagan Tosu win since 6 August — the odds have shortened from 2.05 to 1.83 (−11%).

    1-11 %
    54 %44 %

    2.05 → 1.83

    X+17 %
    33 %23 %

    3.10 → 3.62

    2+11 %
    28 %18 %

    3.82 → 4.24

    Over 2,5-5 %
    47 %37 %

    2.31 → 2.20

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 06/08/2026 → 08/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Sagan Tosu 1Draw 1Ventforet Kofu 0
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sagan Tosu
    Ventforet Kofu
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Sagan Tosu (46–43)
    Ventforet Kofu (37–45)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sagan Tosu
    Sora Ogawa: 316 passningar, xT 0.59OgawaTaisei Inoue: 300 passningar, xT 0.99InoueReiya Morishita: 183 passningar, xT 0.01MorishitaKenta Nishizawa: 175 passningar, xT 0.39NishizawaHaruki Arai: 138 passningar, xT 0.15AraiTatsunori Sakurai: 135 passningar, xT 0.34SakuraiRyota Izumori: 129 passningar, xT 0.12IzumoriNagi Matsumoto: 127 passningar, xT 0.32MatsumotoYuta Imazu: 123 passningar, xT 0.11ImazuShiva Tafari Nagasawa: 104 passningar, xT 0.15NagasawaKento Nishiya: 89 passningar, xT 0.16Nishiya
    Ventforet Kofu
    Taiga Son: 138 passningar, xT 0.28SonTaiju Ichinose: 130 passningar, xT 0.38IchinoseSho Araki: 124 passningar, xT 0.58ArakiKazuhiro Sato: 105 passningar, xT 0.54SatoYoshiki Torikai: 90 passningar, xT 0.14TorikaiHikaru Endo: 84 passningar, xT 0.15EndoRenato Augusto: 79 passningar, xT 0.06AugustoTakumi Tsuchiya: 65 passningar, xT 0.1TsuchiyaYudai Tanaka: 64 passningar, xT 0.1TanakaKohei Kawata: 64 passningar, xT 0.17KawataIwana Kobayashi: 63 passningar, xT 0.18Kobayashi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sagan Tosu
    Sora Ogawa: 316 passningar, xT 0.59OgawaTaisei Inoue: 300 passningar, xT 0.99InoueReiya Morishita: 183 passningar, xT 0.01MorishitaKenta Nishizawa: 175 passningar, xT 0.39NishizawaHaruki Arai: 138 passningar, xT 0.15AraiTatsunori Sakurai: 135 passningar, xT 0.34SakuraiRyota Izumori: 129 passningar, xT 0.12IzumoriNagi Matsumoto: 127 passningar, xT 0.32MatsumotoYuta Imazu: 123 passningar, xT 0.11ImazuShiva Tafari Nagasawa: 104 passningar, xT 0.15NagasawaKento Nishiya: 89 passningar, xT 0.16Nishiya
    Ventforet Kofu
    Taiga Son: 138 passningar, xT 0.28SonTaiju Ichinose: 130 passningar, xT 0.38IchinoseSho Araki: 124 passningar, xT 0.58ArakiKazuhiro Sato: 105 passningar, xT 0.54SatoYoshiki Torikai: 90 passningar, xT 0.14TorikaiHikaru Endo: 84 passningar, xT 0.15EndoRenato Augusto: 79 passningar, xT 0.06AugustoTakumi Tsuchiya: 65 passningar, xT 0.1TsuchiyaYudai Tanaka: 64 passningar, xT 0.1TanakaKohei Kawata: 64 passningar, xT 0.17KawataIwana Kobayashi: 63 passningar, xT 0.18Kobayashi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSagan TosuVentforet Kofu
    Points5844
    xPoints57.243.1
    xG per match1.30.98
    xGA per match1.11.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.1
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.17
    Playing styleSagan TosuVentforet Kofu
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.540.39
    xT per match0.820.68
    xTA per match0.910.98
    Won balls, offensive half2017
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.3
    Entries into the box per match1110
    Entries into the box against1112
    Passes per match370298
    Passes against per match325407
    Set piecesSagan TosuVentforet Kofu
    xG from free kicks0.080.08
    Corners per match4.73.9
    Corners against per match4.55
    xG per corner0.060.05
    xGA per corner against0.050.06
    OtherSagan TosuVentforet Kofu
    Throw-in control0.730.75
    The goalkeepersRyota Izumori (Sagan Tosu)Kohei Kawata (Ventforet Kofu)
    Saves8395
    Save %70%74%
    xG prevented54%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sagan Tosu
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Ventforet Kofu
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sagan Tosu vs Ventforet Kofu according to our model?

    The model gives Sagan Tosu a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sagan Tosu 53%, draw 28%, Ventforet Kofu 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 17% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 39% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.