Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi City: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

J2 League9 August 202624°0,8 mm7 km/h

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Montedio YamagataPossession control

2–0

Tochigi City

The model's lean: 2 · Tochigi City (37%)

1 · Montedio Yamagata 37%X 27%37% Tochigi City · 2

37%

27%

37%

Analysis: Montedio Yamagata – Tochigi City

Erik Lindberg · 7 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Montedio Yamagata are riding an impressive wave, unbeaten in their last eight league matches. Yet, the oddsmakers' model suggests a dead heat, giving both Montedio Yamagata and Tochigi City an equal 37% chance of victory. The numbers tell a story of parity, with expected goals sitting at 1.28 for Montedio Yamagata and 1.30 for Tochigi City. This slight edge towards Tochigi City is reflected in the model's lean and the fact that the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, hinting at a closely contested affair.

Montedio Yamagata's recent goal-scoring consistency—finding the net in 11 consecutive league matches—could well tip the balance in their favor. However, the anticipation of 6.0 mm of rain on matchday might wash away some attacking intent from both sides. Rain tends to suppress goal-scoring opportunities, lowering the likelihood of seeing an offensive spectacle at ND Soft Stadium.

Tochigi City enter this clash with an underlying confidence bolstered by the model's lean in their favour. Despite Montedio's robust form, the visitors will fancy their chances, particularly because the probability of a 0-1 win stands at 9%, mirroring that of Montedio’s chance to clinch a 1-0 victory. Both teams to score is priced at 53%, suggesting that while goals might be at a premium, neither side is likely to be kept off the scoreboard entirely.

Given the statistical stalemate and the weather's potential dampening of attacking flair, a low-scoring draw appears the most probable outcome. The bookmakers at Bet365 offer a compelling angle with Montedio Yamagata at 2.70 to win, which might catch the eye for those backing the hosts' unbeaten streak to continue against the odds. However, the sharpest angle here could be the under 2.5 goals market, with the model suggesting just a 48% chance of three or more goals amidst the drizzly conditions.

Montedio Yamagata

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #18xT #13xP/match #15Points #12

Key players

Junya TakahashiFxG 0.42 · xT 0.08
Keisuke NishimuraCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.06
Shintaro KokubuLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.07

Tochigi City

Key players

Hayato FukushimaCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
Sho OmoriLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
Naoki OtaniCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.07

Final score

2 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 37% · Draw 27% · Tochigi City 37%

Match prediction: Montedio Yamagata – Tochigi City

Predicted score matrix

Tochigi City →

Montedio Yamagata →

0–07.9%

0–19.5%

0–26.4%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.3%

1–112.9%

1–28.2%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.2%

2–18.1%

2–25.3%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.6%

3–13.4%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,30

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.85

Over 2,548%

@1.95

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Tochigi City or draw (X2)64%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Tochigi City or draw (X2)64%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Paulo Junichi Tanaka to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Junya Takahashi to score20%
Keisuke Nishimura to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Tochigi City37% probability@2.75Bet365EV+1%reference odds
2 · Tochigi City37% probability@2.73PinnacleEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Montedio Yamagata	X	2 · Tochigi City
Bet365	2.50	3.25	EV+ 1% 2.75
Pinnacle	2.54	3.41	EV+ 0% 2.73

Odds updated 9 Aug, 10:10

Odds movement

1+4 %

40 %35 %

2.44 → 2.54

X+6 %

32 %27 %

3.22 → 3.41

2-5 %

36 %31 %

2.86 → 2.73

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Montedio Yamagata are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
Montedio Yamagata have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Montedio Yamagata

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Montedio Yamagata (58–54)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

The goalkeepers	Tom Heward Belle (Montedio Yamagata)	Tochigi City
Saves	56	–
Save %	72%	–
xG prevented	49%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Montedio Yamagata

Fixtures, form & tips

Tochigi City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Montedio Yamagata vs Tochigi City according to our model?

The model gives Tochigi City a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montedio Yamagata 37%, draw 27%, Tochigi City 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.