Blaublitz Akita vs Ventforet Kofu: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

J2 League22 August 202625°0,4 mm10 km/h

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Blaublitz Akita

Ventforet Kofu

The model's lean: 1 · Blaublitz Akita (45%)

1 · Blaublitz Akita 45%X 32%22% Ventforet Kofu · 2

45%

32%

22%

Analysis: Blaublitz Akita – Ventforet Kofu

Oscar Nilsson · 17 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Forty-five percent. That's the probability model backing Blaublitz Akita to take the spoils against Ventforet Kofu, and it's a figure that sets the tone for this J2 League clash. Blaublitz Akita comes into the match with an air of confidence, not just from recent form but also from the model's numbers, which lay out a clear case: with expected goals at 1.36 to Ventforet Kofu's modest 0.78, Blaublitz Akita looks the more likely to find the net.

Blaublitz Akita's odds at 2.42 with Pinnacle offer a tantalizing value bet, with the bookmaker's odds out of line with the model's 45% win probability — a tidy 9% edge for the punters. This discrepancy points to a gap worth exploiting, especially in a match where the home side's dominance is underscored by a measured performance anticipated in damp conditions. The expected rain might stifle some of the offensive flair, yet Blaublitz Akita's steadiness seems well-suited to grind out a result.

Ventforet Kofu have struggled to assert themselves in head-to-head encounters since 2023, posting a 1-1-2 record against Blaublitz Akita. While this is a small sample, it doesn't paint a promising picture for an upset. They face the challenge of breaking down a side that seems designed to frustrate, especially in the wet. With a 22% probability of victory, their chances seem slim, and the model's lean towards the home side feels justified.

The likelihood of a low-scoring affair looms large, with both a 1-0 and a goalless draw among the most probable outcomes. The over/under 2.5 goals market leans heavily towards the under at 36%, and the expected weather conditions should only serve to reinforce this tendency. It's a recipe for a tight, tactical encounter rather than a goal-fest.

All signs point to backing Blaublitz Akita on home turf, especially with a sharp focus on that Pinnacle price. A 1-0 home victory aligns with both model projections and the current betting landscape, making it a compelling narrative for the value-seeking punter.

Blaublitz Akita

Form WDLDD

Key players

Ren KomatsuFxG 0.45 · xT 0.03
Takuma MizutaniFxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Masakazu YoshiokaRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10

Ventforet Kofu

Form LLDLD

Key players

Sho ArakiCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Kojiro YasudaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
Kazuhiro SatoRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Blaublitz Akita – Ventforet Kofu

Predicted score matrix

Ventforet Kofu →

Blaublitz Akita →

0–012.1%

0–18.8%

0–23.6%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–015.6%

1–112.8%

1–24.9%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.9%

2–18.5%

2–23.3%

2–30.9%

2–4+0.2%

3–04.9%

3–13.8%

3–21.5%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.3%

4+–11.8%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-016%
2.1-113%
3.0-012%
4.2-011%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,36–0,78

Both teams to score

41%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

012%

124%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,564%

@1.49

Over 2,536%

@2.45

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Blaublitz Akita to win45%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Blaublitz Akita to win45%
Under 2.5 goals64%
Koya Handa to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score41%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Koya Handa to score25%
Seigo Takei to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Blaublitz Akita45% probability@2.42PinnacleEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Blaublitz Akita	X	2 · Ventforet Kofu
Betsafe	2.20	2.92	3.25
Betsson	2.20	2.92	3.25
Nordicbet	2.20	2.92	3.25
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 2.42	2.94	3.17

Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Blaublitz Akita 1Draw 1Ventforet Kofu 2

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Blaublitz Akita

Ventforet Kofu

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Blaublitz Akita (1–5)

Ventforet Kofu (1–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Blaublitz Akita

Ventforet Kofu

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Blaublitz Akita

Ventforet Kofu

The goalkeepers	Genki Yamada (Blaublitz Akita)	Kodai Yamauchi (Ventforet Kofu)
Saves	10	6
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	35%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Blaublitz Akita vs Ventforet Kofu according to our model?

The model gives Blaublitz Akita a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Blaublitz Akita 45%, draw 32%, Ventforet Kofu 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 16% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 41% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.