01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
J2 League17°1,7 mm9 km/h
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Hokkaido Consadole Sapporovs
Omiya ArdijaThe model's lean: 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (42%)
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Omiya Ardija · J2 League
1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 42%X 28%30% Omiya Ardija · 2
42%
28%
30%
Analysis: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Omiya Ardija
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo enter this clash with a 42% probability of winning, backed by odds from Pinnacle that suggest a 9% edge in value — a tempting proposition for the punters. The model suggests a lean towards the home side, but make no mistake, the margin is thin. With Omiya Ardija finding the net in their last 10 league outings, this encounter is poised to be anything but straightforward for the hosts.
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo's expected goals of 1.55 edges out Omiya Ardija’s 1.32, gesturing towards a slender advantage. Yet, with both sides recording a win apiece in their scant two head-to-head contests, form and expected goals weigh heavier than history here. The likelihood of a 1-1 draw at 12% and the possibility of a 2-1 home win at 9% offer a glimpse into the tight nature of this matchup. Betting on a draw at odds 3.56 offers a modest 1% edge, but it's the home win odds at 2.61 with Pinnacle that truly catch the eye.
Omiya Ardija's scoring streak hints at a potential for goals, and the 55% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals further bolsters this notion. With a 58% probability for both teams to score, the undercurrent suggests a match that could swing either way, leaving defensive solidity as a secondary concern.
RB Omiya Ardija have momentum in their striking prowess, but Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo's edge in expected goals and the value at 2.61 odds makes siding with the home team an enticing play. A 2-1 victory for Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo is what I'm inclined to predict, with the over 2.5 goals looking likely given both teams’ recent tendencies. The real sharp angle here lies with the home win, offering the most alluring value in this intriguing J2 League tussle.
Hokkaido Consadole SapporoForm WDWWL
Key players
- Haruto ShiraiFxG 0.53 · xT 0.05
- Shota NishinoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
- Ryunosuke UmetsuCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Omiya ArdijaForm DWWLL
Key players
- Carlos Antonio de Souza JúniorFxG 0.69 · xT 0.04
- Mauricio Caprini PintoRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.21
- Hijiri KatoLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
Match prediction: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Omiya Ardija
Predicted score matrix
Omiya Ardija →
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–17.2%
0–25.0%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.0%
1–27.7%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.8%
2–19.0%
2–25.9%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.6%
3–23.1%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,55–1,32
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@1.98
Over 2,555%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Haruto Shirai to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Oriola Sunday to score26%
- Arthur Silva Feitoza to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo42% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo42% probability@2.75BetssonEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo42% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | X | 2 · Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 14% 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Betsson | EV+ 14% 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 14% 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 9% 2.61 | EV+ 1% 3.56 | 2.47 |
Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesHokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1Draw 0Omiya Ardija 1
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Omiya Ardija have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Omiya Ardija
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (3–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
| The goalkeepers | Tomoki Tagawa (Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo) | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | – |
| Save % | 67% | – |
| xG prevented | 74% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo vs Omiya Ardija according to our model?
The model gives Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 42%, draw 28%, Omiya Ardija 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.