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    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    vs
    FC ImabariFC Imabari
    The model's lean: 1 · Kataller Toyama (54%)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Kataller Toyama – FC Imabari · J2 League

    1 · Kataller Toyama 54%X 26%20% FC Imabari · 2

    Analysis: Kataller Toyama – FC Imabari

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Six matches unbeaten. That's the form Kataller Toyama are bringing to the table as they prepare to host an FC Imabari side in the midst of a tailspin, having lost their last three. It's a classic narrative of two teams heading in opposite directions, and the numbers certainly don't shy away from suggesting this could continue. Kataller Toyama have a 54% probability of victory according to the model, which aligns neatly with their current run of form. Meanwhile, FC Imabari's recent struggles are reflected in their meager 20% chance of snatching a win.

    Kataller Toyama are the side in the ascendancy, with their expected goals sitting at a promising 1.83 against FC Imabari's 0.95. This suggests that Toyama should find the net at least once, possibly twice, while keeping their opponents at bay. The model's lean towards a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline for the hosts underscores this expectation. However, the rain expected on match day could potentially dampen the goal tally, a factor that is already considered in the model's projections.

    Despite the weather, there's still a compelling case for goals, with the over 2.5 market sitting at a 53% probability. The slight edge here, alongside the fact that both teams are likely to score (52%), suggests the potential for an open game, albeit one where Toyama should have the upper hand. The two head-to-head clashes since 2023 have produced a draw and an Imabari win, but with such a small sample size, this is more of a footnote than a deciding factor in the current context.

    Kataller Toyama are clearly the team to back here, with Pinnacle offering a value bet at odds of 2.15 for a home victory — a 16% edge according to the model. For those looking to ride the wave of attacking play, the over 2.5 goals market also presents a smidgeon of value at odds of 1.934. With Toyama's form and Imabari's struggles, a 2-0 victory for the hosts seems the most likely outcome, as they look to extend their impressive unbeaten run.

    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    Form WWWDD
    Key players
    • Shosei UsuiFxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
    • Riki MatsudaFxG 0.22 · xT 0.02
    • Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.15 · xT 0.09
    FC ImabariFC Imabari
    Form LDLLL
    Key players
    • Kyota MochiiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    • Hikaru AraiRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.22
    • Yoshiaki KomaiCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.40

    Match prediction: Kataller Toyama – FC Imabari

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Imabari →
    Kataller Toyama →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–15.6%
    0–22.8%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.0%
    1–111.1%
    1–25.1%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.4%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.3%
    3–16.0%
    3–22.9%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–04.4%
    4+–14.2%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,83–0,95
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @1.83
    Over 2,553%
    @1.93EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Kataller Toyama to win54%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.15

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Kataller Toyama to win54%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Tae-won Kim to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Tae-won Kim to score34%
    • Taiga Son to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Kataller Toyama54% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
    • Over 2.553% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Kataller ToyamaX2 · FC Imabari
    Betsafe1.853.253.95
    Betsson1.853.253.95
    Nordicbet1.853.253.95
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 16%
    2.15    		3.433.18

    Odds updated 17 Aug, 18:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Kataller Toyama 0Draw 1FC Imabari 1
    Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Kataller Toyama are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    • FC Imabari have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kataller Toyama
    FC Imabari
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kataller Toyama (4–2)
    FC Imabari (3–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 135 passningar, xT 0.75JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 120 passningar, xT 0.13TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 104 passningar, xT 0.43FukazawaSho Fuseya: 101 passningar, xT 0.46FuseyaYoshiki Takahashi: 99 passningar, xT 0.03TakahashiShosei Okamoto: 90 passningar, xT 0.16OkamotoToshiki Hirao: 63 passningar, xT 0.08HiraoTae-won Kim: 51 passningar, xT 0.15KimShimpei Nishiya: 47 passningar, xT 0.06NishiyaTsubasa Yoshihira: 37 passningar, xT 0.39YoshihiraManato Furukawa: 31 passningar, xT -0.03Furukawa
    FC Imabari
    Hikaru Arai: 95 passningar, xT 0.31AraiKazuki Kushibiki: 80 passningar, xT 0.31KushibikiKenta Kikuchi: 73 passningar, xT 0.22KikuchiRei Umeki: 59 passningar, xT 0.08UmekiTaiga Son: 59 passningar, xT 0.06SonTakuhiro Nakai: 49 passningar, xT 0.01NakaiKota Mori: 41 passningar, xT 0.31MoriKyota Mochii: 41 passningar, xT 0.13MochiiKotaro Tachikawa: 39 passningar, xT 0.08TachikawaEdigar Junio Teixeira Lima: 27 passningar, xT 0.01LimaYoshiaki Komai: 18 passningar, xT 0.52Komai
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 135 passningar, xT 0.75JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 120 passningar, xT 0.13TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 104 passningar, xT 0.43FukazawaSho Fuseya: 101 passningar, xT 0.46FuseyaYoshiki Takahashi: 99 passningar, xT 0.03TakahashiShosei Okamoto: 90 passningar, xT 0.16OkamotoToshiki Hirao: 63 passningar, xT 0.08HiraoTae-won Kim: 51 passningar, xT 0.15KimShimpei Nishiya: 47 passningar, xT 0.06NishiyaTsubasa Yoshihira: 37 passningar, xT 0.39YoshihiraManato Furukawa: 31 passningar, xT -0.03Furukawa
    FC Imabari
    Hikaru Arai: 95 passningar, xT 0.31AraiKazuki Kushibiki: 80 passningar, xT 0.31KushibikiKenta Kikuchi: 73 passningar, xT 0.22KikuchiRei Umeki: 59 passningar, xT 0.08UmekiTaiga Son: 59 passningar, xT 0.06SonTakuhiro Nakai: 49 passningar, xT 0.01NakaiKota Mori: 41 passningar, xT 0.31MoriKyota Mochii: 41 passningar, xT 0.13MochiiKotaro Tachikawa: 39 passningar, xT 0.08TachikawaEdigar Junio Teixeira Lima: 27 passningar, xT 0.01LimaYoshiaki Komai: 18 passningar, xT 0.52Komai
    The goalkeepersShosei Okamoto (Kataller Toyama)Kotaro Tachikawa (FC Imabari)
    Saves15
    Save %100%50%
    xG prevented100%43%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kataller Toyama vs FC Imabari according to our model?

    The model gives Kataller Toyama a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kataller Toyama 54%, draw 26%, FC Imabari 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.