Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama FC: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

J2 League22 August 202622°0,9 mm6 km/h

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Montedio Yamagata

Yokohama FC

The model's lean: 2 · Yokohama FC (45%)

1 · Montedio Yamagata 28%X 27%45% Yokohama FC · 2

28%

27%

45%

Analysis: Montedio Yamagata – Yokohama FC

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Montedio Yamagata's recent encounters with Yokohama FC tell a tale of domination, albeit from a small sample size of two games, both of which ended in favor of Yokohama FC. Though head-to-head statistics carry less weight due to the limited data, they align with a broader narrative: Yokohama FC is the favored side, and not just by a whisker. The model gives them a 45% chance of victory compared to Montedio Yamagata's 28%, a gap that suggests a tilt not only in form but in intrinsic quality as well.

Yokohama FC steps into this clash with a slight edge in expected goals, clocking in at 1.39 against Montedio Yamagata's 1.10. This nods to their ability to carve out opportunities, underscored by the most likely scorelines: 1-1 at 13%, 0-1 at 11%, and 1-2 at 9%. The numbers suggest a tight contest, but one that leans toward Yokohama's favor, particularly given their psychological advantage from past encounters.

Montedio Yamagata, for their part, have struggled to assert dominance on home soil or away against this opponent. Their 28% chance of victory reflects a team that, while capable of finding the net, may find themselves outpaced in the final third. Both teams scoring is a coin-toss at 51%, indicative of an anticipated competitive edge but perhaps without a deluge of goals, with the over 2.5 goals market resting at just 45%.

Yokohama FC's form and the slight edge in expected goals make a compelling case for a 1-2 scoreline, hinting at a narrow but decisive win. For those seeking value, the best play rests with backing Yokohama FC at odds of 2.20 with Bet365, where their winning probability outstrips the implied odds. This assessment isn’t just a punt; it’s a calculated read from the data.

Montedio Yamagata

Form WDWWL

Key players

Akira Silvano DisaroFxG 1.03 · xT 0.06
Ryoma KidaCMxG 0.21 · xT 0.15
Shoma DoiCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09

Yokohama FC

Form LDDWW

Key players

Lukian Araújo de AlmeidaFxG 0.88 · xT 0.08
Kaili ShimboLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Akiyuki YokoyamaLWxG 0.16 · xT -0.07

Match prediction: Montedio Yamagata – Yokohama FC

Predicted score matrix

Yokohama FC →

Montedio Yamagata →

0–08.6%

0–111.1%

0–28.0%

0–33.7%

0–4+1.7%

1–08.7%

1–113.0%

1–28.8%

1–34.1%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.0%

2–17.0%

2–24.9%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–01.9%

3–12.6%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.1-09%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,10–1,39

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.72

Over 2,545%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Yokohama FC to win45%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Yokohama FC to win45%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Lukian Araújo de Almeida to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Lukian Araújo de Almeida to score22%
Kyo Hosoi to be booked19%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Montedio Yamagata	X	2 · Yokohama FC
Betsafe	3.30	3.20	2.05
Betsson	3.30	3.20	2.05
Nordicbet	3.30	3.20	2.05

Odds updated 18 Aug, 12:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Montedio Yamagata 0Draw 0Yokohama FC 2

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Montedio Yamagata

Yokohama FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Montedio Yamagata (2–1)

Yokohama FC (4–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

Yokohama FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Montedio Yamagata

Yokohama FC

The goalkeepers	Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata)	Akinori Ichikawa (Yokohama FC)
Saves	7	5
Save %	88%	83%
xG prevented	55%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama FC according to our model?

The model gives Yokohama FC a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montedio Yamagata 28%, draw 27%, Yokohama FC 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.