Yokohama FC vs Jubilo Iwata: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

J2 League16 August 202624°0,7 mm8 km/h

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Yokohama FC

3–1

Jubilo Iwata

The model's lean: 1 · Yokohama FC (54%)

1 · Yokohama FC 54%X 26%20% Jubilo Iwata · 2

54%

26%

20%

Analysis: Yokohama FC – Jubilo Iwata

Oscar Nilsson · 15 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Yokohama FC stand as the clear frontrunners in their clash against Jubilo Iwata, boasting a 54% probability of victory as their home advantage combines with solid form metrics. The model's numbers lean heavily towards a Yokohama win, with the most likely scoreline pegged at 1-0, a reflection of their expected goals tally of 1.56 against Jubilo's 0.85. Despite Jubilo's respectable unbeaten streak of six league matches, the weight of numerical evidence points towards a potential end to that run.

Jubilo Iwata's recent defensive resilience will be put to the test, but Yokohama's higher xG suggests that the home side should find a way through. The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at just 43%, and with both teams to score at a comparable 46%, we shouldn't expect a goal fest. Yokohama's advantage is underscored by the statistical likelihood of a low-scoring affair, likely edging to their benefit in front of a supportive home crowd.

Yokohama FC's name should be at the forefront of any punter's mind, and not just because of their statistical superiority. With Pinnacle offering odds of 1.99 for a home win, there’s a tasty 7% edge when aligned with the model's 54% win probability for Yokohama. This represents a prime opportunity for those seeking value in their betting slip. While the figures suggest a tight match, the edge undeniably lies with the home side.

In a small head-to-head sample, individual matchups can often deceive, but Yokohama FC's form and expected goal metrics offer a compelling case. A 1-0 scoreline sits as the most probable, supported by the numbers. A wager on Yokohama FC not only aligns with statistical trends but also with a positive expected value — a savvy move in the world of football betting.

Yokohama FC

Form LLDDW

Jubilo Iwata

Form WWDWD

Key players

Ryunosuke OtaFxG 0.30 · xT 0.03
Kensuke FujiwaraCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.16
Yuri LaraCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Yokohama FC 54% · Draw 26% · Jubilo Iwata 20%

Match prediction: Yokohama FC – Jubilo Iwata

Predicted score matrix

Jubilo Iwata →

Yokohama FC →

0–09.3%

0–17.3%

0–23.3%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–013.6%

1–112.2%

1–25.1%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.9%

2–19.3%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.7%

3–14.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.1%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,56–0,85

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.75

Over 2,543%

@2.06

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Yokohama FC to win54%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Yokohama FC to win54%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Lukian Araújo de Almeida to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Lukian Araújo de Almeida to score29%
Daiki Kaneko to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Yokohama FC54% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+9%

Bookmaker	1 · Yokohama FC	X	2 · Jubilo Iwata
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 2.03	3.24	3.85

Odds updated 15 Aug, 18:18

Odds movement

1+2 %

49 %44 %

1.99 → 2.03

X-1 %

31 %26 %

3.28 → 3.24

2+2 %

27 %22 %

3.78 → 3.85

Over 2,5+1 %

49 %44 %

2.03 → 2.06

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Jubilo Iwata are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Yokohama FC

Jubilo Iwata

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Yokohama FC (1–0)

Jubilo Iwata (1–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Yokohama FC

Jubilo Iwata

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Yokohama FC

Jubilo Iwata

The goalkeepers	Akinori Ichikawa (Yokohama FC)	Yuri Lara (Jubilo Iwata)
Saves	3	2
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Yokohama FC vs Jubilo Iwata according to our model?

The model gives Yokohama FC a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Yokohama FC 54%, draw 26%, Jubilo Iwata 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.