Ehime FC vs Nara Club: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

J3 League9 August 202628°3,9 mm8 km/hUpdated 04/08/2026

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Ehime FCPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Ehime FC (58%)

Nara ClubPossession control

1 · Ehime FC 58%X 24%18% Nara Club · 2

58%

24%

18%

Ehime FC

League ranking xG #11xGA #2xT #13xP/match #7Points #7

Key players

Ryunosuke OtaFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
Rita MoriRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
Kensuke FujiwaraCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15

Nara Club

Form DDLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #4xT #7xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Daisei SuzukiCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
Yuki OkadaLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.12
Hayato HoriuchiCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Ehime FC – Nara Club

Predicted score matrix

Nara Club →

Ehime FC →

0–06.2%

0–15.3%

0–22.6%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.9%

1–110.8%

1–24.9%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.6%

2–19.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.7%

3–16.2%

3–22.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.9%

4+–14.5%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-011%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,89–0,94

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

–

Over 2,554%

–

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Analysis: Ehime FC – Nara Club

Erik Lindberg · 4 August 2026 · How the predictions work

An intriguing 58% probability for Ehime FC to secure a win immediately catches the eye. With a slim two-point lead over Nara Club in the standings and a noticeable edge in expected points, Ehime FC seems to have the upper hand before a ball is kicked. The expected goals also paint a favorable picture for the hosts, forecasting 1.89 for Ehime FC against Nara Club's 0.94, hinting at a potential home dominance in the attacking department.

Ehime FC, employing a possession and high press style, appear better suited to exploit Nara Club's more conservative possession control approach, especially under the potentially slippery conditions with 3.9 mm of rain anticipated. This could easily tilt the tactical battle in favor of the home side, who are more accustomed to dictating the pace and winning the ball higher up the pitch. While both teams are poised to retain the ball, Ehime's aggressive pressing might just force errors from their visitors.

The numbers suggest a tight matchup with scorelines like 1-0, 1-1, or even a 2-0 win for Ehime FC each holding an 11% probability. However, the 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals means that a high-scoring affair cannot be dismissed out of hand. Both teams have the capability to find the net, supported by a 52% chance of both teams scoring. Yet, the defensive solidity of Ehime, with a lower xGA of 0.98 compared to Nara Club's 1.1, suggests they might be better equipped to keep a clean sheet.

Nara Club should not be underestimated, having only a two-point deficit in the standings and a history of hanging tight in games. However, the odds lean towards a home victory, with a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline looking plausible. For those with a betting instinct, there's value in betting on Ehime FC to win at odds of 2.10 with a reputable bookmaker. While not a guarantee, the model and statistics appear to favor a narrow home triumph, making Ehime FC the smart play.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nara Club

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Nara Club (50–46)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nara Club

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nara Club

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ehime FC	Nara Club
Points	58	56
xPoints	56.6	52.5
xG per match	1.2	1.1
xGA per match	0.98	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.21

Playing style	Ehime FC	Nara Club
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.54	0.52
xT per match	0.89	0.95
xTA per match	0.71	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	27	20
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.35
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	9	12
Passes per match	266	427
Passes against per match	317	312

Set pieces	Ehime FC	Nara Club
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.03
Corners per match	5.5	3.8
Corners against per match	3.5	5.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04

Other	Ehime FC	Nara Club
Throw-in control	0.71	0.78

The goalkeepers	Ehime FC	Shinji Okada (Nara Club)
Saves	–	88
Save %	–	71%
xG prevented	–	58%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ehime FC vs Nara Club according to our model?

The model gives Ehime FC a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ehime FC 58%, draw 24%, Nara Club 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.