Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok: Prediction & Odds (31 Jul 2026)

Ekstraklasa31 July 202628°1,1 mm27 km/h

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Motor Lublin

1–2

Jagiellonia Białystok

The model's lean: 2 · Jagiellonia Białystok (46%)

1 · Motor Lublin 30%X 24%46% Jagiellonia Białystok · 2

30%

24%

46%

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Motor Lublin 30% · Draw 24% · Jagiellonia Białystok 46%

Match prediction: Motor Lublin – Jagiellonia Białystok

Predicted score matrix

Jagiellonia Białystok →

Motor Lublin →

0–03.8%

0–17.0%

0–27.3%

0–35.0%

0–4+4.0%

1–04.4%

1–19.7%

1–29.6%

1–36.5%

1–4+5.2%

2–03.0%

2–16.2%

2–26.3%

2–34.2%

2–4+3.4%

3–01.3%

3–12.7%

3–22.7%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.5%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.2%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-27%
4.0-17%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,31–2,03

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@2.23

Over 2,565%

@1.69EV+9%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Jagiellonia Białystok to win46%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Jagiellonia Białystok to win46%
Over 2.5 goals65%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals65%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Jagiellonia Białystok46% probability@2.40PinnacleEV+9%
Over 2.565% probability@1.69PinnacleEV+9%

Bookmaker	1 · Motor Lublin	X	2 · Jagiellonia Białystok
Pinnacle	2.90	3.56	EV+ 9% 2.40

Odds updated 31 Jul, 10:08

Odds movement

1-3 %

35 %30 %

2.99 → 2.90

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.53 → 3.56

2+5 %

43 %38 %

2.29 → 2.40

Over 2,5-1 %

59 %54 %

1.70 → 1.69

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 27/07/2026 → 31/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia Białystok according to our model?

The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motor Lublin 30%, draw 24%, Jagiellonia Białystok 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.