Scottish Premiership ·
The Match Simulator: Aberdeen – Hearts
Match simulator for Aberdeen vs Hearts: set the line-ups, adjust stars, playing style and formation — the model recomputes the score matrix, 1X2 and goalscorers
Everything is editable: click the stars to set player quality, hit the ⇄ button in front of a name to bring in someone from the squad or add your own new signing, type directly in the name fields, and try a different style, formation or team strength. The result recomputes automatically.
model v1 · trained on match data through 2025-11-16
Method
The simulator is built on a model trained on data from thousands of real matches. Each team is described by a handful of understandable controls: playing style (five team types recognised from actual matches), team strength in stars, formation, and eleven player types with individual stars — all pre-filled with the team’s real line-up.
From the controls, the model computes how many goals each side is expected to score and translates that into a complete score matrix with a probability for every final score. A player layer then distributes the team’s expected goals across the eleven players by role and strength — which is why you get per-player probabilities for goals, assists and cards, recomputed on every change.
Frequently asked questions
How does the match simulator work?
Each team is described by playing style, team strength in stars, formation and eleven player types. From that, a model trained on thousands of real matches computes probabilities for the final score, 1X2 and every player’s chance of scoring, assisting or getting booked.
What do the stars mean?
Stars (1–5) are set from real performances: team strength is measured on results over time and players on the season player rating. 3 stars is league average, 5 is the absolute elite tier.
What are player archetypes?
Archetypes like Playmaker, Poacher and Wing Back are roles classified automatically from players’ actual match data. Changing the archetype in a position makes the simulator recompute both the team’s goal expectation and the players’ individual probabilities.
Is the simulator the same as the main prediction?
No. The main prediction uses hundreds of detailed data points per team. The simulator is a simplified model built for experiments: it answers "what if?" rather than giving sharp betting advice.
The simulator is a simplified star-and-style model, separate from the main prediction — built for experiments, not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.