Athletic Club vs Sevilla FC: Prediction & Odds (22 Aug 2026)

La Liga22 August 2026San Mamés, Bilbao19°1,8 mm13 km/h

Athletic Club

Sevilla FCPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Sevilla FC (34%)Soft draw

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Athletic Club 31%X 34%34% Sevilla FC · 2

31%

34%

Analysis: Athletic Club – Sevilla FC

Sofia Andersson · 17 August 2026 · How the predictions work

34% is a fascinating figure in this matchup between Athletic Club and Sevilla FC, as it not only represents Sevilla's chance of victory according to the model's predictions, but it also echoes their probability of a draw. What makes this encounter particularly intriguing is the model's slight lean towards Sevilla FC despite the recent head-to-head record favoring Athletic Club, who have managed 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss against Sevilla since 2022. However, the small sample size of these head-to-head meetings means form and expected goals should weigh more heavily in our analysis.

Sevilla FC have an undeniable allure in this fixture, especially when considering the calculated value in the betting market. Bet365 offers odds of 5.5 on Sevilla's victory, a striking mismatch against the model's 34% probability, suggesting a significant 89% edge. Similarly, Betsafe and Betsson's odds of 5.35 provide a tempting 84% edge. These figures make Sevilla FC an enticing prospect for punters looking for potential value.

Athletic Club, opening with a predicted 31% chance of winning, will aim to leverage their home advantage, yet the expected goals figures tell a story of parity. Athletic Club's expected goals tally stands at 1.09, marginally higher than Sevilla's 1.00, underscoring the anticipated tightness of the contest. With a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and only a 43% likelihood of both teams finding the net, a low-scoring affair feels imminent.

Given the conditions and metrics analyzed, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome, occurring 14% of the time in the model's forecast, followed closely by the 1-0 scorelines. Should the weather throw its usual Spanish charm with clear skies and mild breezes, it would not significantly disrupt these predictions.

The sharpest angle, however, is backing Sevilla FC at those odds. With considerable value identified in the market, it's a sensible bet to take a punt on Sevilla to come away with a win, even as the match teeters on a knife's edge statistically.

Athletic Club

Form WLLDL

Key players

Alex BerenguerFxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
Gorka GuruzetaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.01
Nico WilliamsLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.21

Sevilla FC

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #3xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Gabriel SuazoLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Kike SalasCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
Lucien AgoumeCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Athletic Club – Sevilla FC

Predicted score matrix

Sevilla FC →

Athletic Club →

0–012.6%

0–111.9%

0–26.2%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.6%

1–013.0%

1–113.9%

1–26.8%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.7%

2–07.3%

2–17.4%

2–23.7%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.7%

3–12.7%

3–21.4%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–00.9%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-013%
4.0-112%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,09–1,00

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

013%

125%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,565%

@1.67EV+8%

Over 2,535%

@2.28

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sevilla FC or draw (X2)63%
Under 3.5 goals84%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sevilla FC or draw (X2)63%
Under 2.5 goals65%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals35%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sevilla FC34% probability@5.50Bet365EV+89%
2 · Sevilla FC34% probability@5.45BetssonEV+87%
2 · Sevilla FC34% probability@5.45NordicbetEV+87%

Bookmaker	1 · Athletic Club	X	2 · Sevilla FC
Bet365	1.65	EV+ 20% 3.50	EV+ 89% 5.50
Betsafe	1.70	EV+ 20% 3.50	EV+ 86% 5.40
Betsson	1.70	EV+ 20% 3.50	EV+ 87% 5.45
Nordicbet	1.70	EV+ 20% 3.50	EV+ 87% 5.45
Pinnacle	1.74	EV+ 27% 3.70	EV+ 61% 4.69

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

57 %52 %

1.76 → 1.74

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.67 → 3.70

2+1 %

23 %18 %

4.65 → 4.69

Over 2,50 %

44 %39 %

2.28 → 2.28

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Athletic Club 2Draw 1Sevilla FC 1

Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Athletic Club

Sevilla FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sevilla FC (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sevilla FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sevilla FC

The goalkeepers	Athletic Club	Odysseas Vlachodimos (Sevilla FC)
Saves	–	2
Save %	–	67%
xG prevented	–	22%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Athletic Club vs Sevilla FC according to our model?

The model gives Sevilla FC a 34% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Athletic Club 31%, draw 34%, Sevilla FC 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 35% and under at 65%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.