La LigaMendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

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    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo AlavesPossession control
    vs
    GetafeGetafeLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Alaves (43%)

    Deportivo Alaves – Getafe · La Liga

    1 · Deportivo Alaves 43%X 34%24% Getafe · 2

    Analysis: Deportivo Alaves – Getafe

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    Forty-three percent is the magic number here as Deportivo Alaves prepare to host Getafe CF. That’s the model’s probability tipping towards the home side, who’ve shown a knack for finding the net in their last 12 league outings. While the head-to-head record since 2022 leans in favour of Getafe CF, with three wins out of four meetings, this small sample pales in significance when you consider the current form and expected goals metrics. Deportivo Alaves boast an xG of 1.4 per match compared to Getafe CF's 0.95, clearly suggesting they are better equipped to create scoring opportunities.

    Deportivo Alaves have struggled against Getafe CF in recent matchups, but these past results shouldn't overshadow their current possession-based strategy, which contrasts sharply with Getafe CF's low defensive block and direct play. Given the likelihood of a tight match, the most probable scoreline skews towards a 1-0 win for Deportivo Alaves, with a 16% chance, just edging out a goalless draw at 15%.

    Fifty-eight points on paper versus fifty-one in reality: Deportivo Alaves might feel a touch hard done by, given their xPoints suggest a superior performance over the season. Both teams have their defensive strengths, with Getafe CF conceding fewer expected goals against (xGA 1.1 vs. 1.3), but the visitors’ attacking frailties potentially leave them vulnerable. With only a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals, the odds point towards a low-scoring affair.

    Getafe CF's overall stronger points haul this season might tempt some, but the numbers whisper differently. The value bet here is the home win, with an attractive edge on offer at odds of 2.36 via Pinnacle. While it's no banker, the model's 43% probability sings the praises of a Deportivo Alaves triumph. With their scoring streak and tactical edge, backing the home side offers a calculated gamble worth considering.

    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo Alaves
    Form LDWWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #16xP/match #2Points #14
    Key players
    • Toni MartinezFxG 0.47 · xT 0.03
    • Jonny OttoRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
    • Lucas BoyeFxG 0.51 · xT 0.04
    GetafeGetafe
    Form LDWLW
    League ranking xG #20xGA #3xT #20xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Martín SatrianoFxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
    • Borja MayoralFxG 0.26 · xT 0.04
    • Luis MillaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Deportivo Alaves – Getafe

    Predicted score matrix

    Getafe →
    Deportivo Alaves →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–014.5%
    0–110.8%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–016.1%
    1–113.4%
    1–25.2%
    1–31.4%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–17.6%
    2–23.0%
    2–30.8%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–13.0%
    3–21.2%
    3–30.3%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.4%
    4+–30.1%
    4+–4+0.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-016%
    2. 2.0-015%
    3. 3.1-113%
    4. 4.0-111%
    5. 5.2-010%
    Expected goals
    1,17–0,79
    Both teams to score
    38%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,0
    Under 2,569%
    @1.38
    Over 2,531%
    @3.10

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Deportivo Alaves or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 3.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    65%

    Fair odds

    1.54

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Deportivo Alaves or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 2.5 goals69%
    • Lucas Ariel Boyé to score22%

    Combined probability

    12%

    Fair odds

    8.42

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score38%
    • Over 2.5 goals31%
    • Lucas Ariel Boyé to score22%
    • Allan-Roméo Nyom to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    1%

    Fair odds

    75.07

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Deportivo Alaves43% probability@2.36PinnacleEV+1%
    Bookmaker1 · Deportivo AlavesX2 · Getafe
    Betsafe2.322.823.70
    Betsson2.322.823.70
    Nordicbet2.322.823.70
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 1%
    2.36    		2.823.87

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 12:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    43 %38 %

    2.36 → 2.36

    X0 %
    37 %32 %

    2.81 → 2.82

    20 %
    27 %22 %

    3.88 → 3.87

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 12/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Deportivo Alaves 0Draw 1Getafe 3
    Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Deportivo Alaves have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Deportivo Alaves
    Getafe
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Deportivo Alaves (44–56)
    Getafe (32–38)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 138 passningar, xT 0.25BlancoNahuel Tenaglia: 119 passningar, xT 0.23TenagliaAbderrahmane Rebbach: 113 passningar, xT 0.72RebbachÁngel Pérez: 111 passningar, xT 0.74PérezAntonio Sivera: 94 passningar, xT 0.51SiveraVíctor Parada: 93 passningar, xT 0.23ParadaJonny Otto: 88 passningar, xT 0.12OttoJon Guridi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02GuridiDenis Suarez: 67 passningar, xT 0.23SuarezPablo Ibanez: 57 passningar, xT -0.01IbanezVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 53 passningar, xT 0.35Koski
    Getafe
    Luis Milla: 143 passningar, xT 0.42MillaDomingos Duarte: 135 passningar, xT 0.42DuarteJuan Iglesias: 128 passningar, xT 0.89IglesiasMauro Arambarri: 110 passningar, xT 0.09ArambarriZaid Romero: 110 passningar, xT 0.2RomeroDavid Soria: 82 passningar, xT 0.28SoriaAllan Nyom: 73 passningar, xT 0.77NyomAbdelkabir Abqar: 72 passningar, xT 0.07AbqarDjené: 71 passningar, xT 0.07DjenéMartín Satriano: 53 passningar, xT 0.01SatrianoDavinchi: 47 passningar, xT 0.15Davinchi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 138 passningar, xT 0.25BlancoNahuel Tenaglia: 119 passningar, xT 0.23TenagliaAbderrahmane Rebbach: 113 passningar, xT 0.72RebbachÁngel Pérez: 111 passningar, xT 0.74PérezAntonio Sivera: 94 passningar, xT 0.51SiveraVíctor Parada: 93 passningar, xT 0.23ParadaJonny Otto: 88 passningar, xT 0.12OttoJon Guridi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02GuridiDenis Suarez: 67 passningar, xT 0.23SuarezPablo Ibanez: 57 passningar, xT -0.01IbanezVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 53 passningar, xT 0.35Koski
    Getafe
    Luis Milla: 143 passningar, xT 0.42MillaDomingos Duarte: 135 passningar, xT 0.42DuarteJuan Iglesias: 128 passningar, xT 0.89IglesiasMauro Arambarri: 110 passningar, xT 0.09ArambarriZaid Romero: 110 passningar, xT 0.2RomeroDavid Soria: 82 passningar, xT 0.28SoriaAllan Nyom: 73 passningar, xT 0.77NyomAbdelkabir Abqar: 72 passningar, xT 0.07AbqarDjené: 71 passningar, xT 0.07DjenéMartín Satriano: 53 passningar, xT 0.01SatrianoDavinchi: 47 passningar, xT 0.15Davinchi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDeportivo AlavesGetafe
    Points4351
    xPoints58.355.2
    xG per match1.40.95
    xGA per match1.31.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.14
    Playing styleDeportivo AlavesGetafe
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.480.42
    xT per match0.830.65
    xTA per match10.86
    Won balls, offensive half2828
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.270.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.3
    Entries into the box per match118
    Entries into the box against1211
    Pass completion %0.760.65
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.6
    Passes per match339213
    Passes against per match379376
    Switches of play per match18.218.6
    Long balls per match2929
    Set piecesDeportivo AlavesGetafe
    xG from free kicks0.130.09
    Corners per match5.14.2
    Corners against per match54.6
    xG per corner0.060.05
    xGA per corner against0.060.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.39
    First touch, defensive corners %0.470.53
    OtherDeportivo AlavesGetafe
    Throw-in control0.640.62
    The goalkeepersAntonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)David Soria (Getafe)
    Saves97118
    Save %64%77%
    xG prevented45%62%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Deportivo Alaves vs Getafe according to our model?

    The model gives Deportivo Alaves a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Alaves 43%, draw 34%, Getafe 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 16% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 31% and under at 69%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 38% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.