La LigaEstadio de Vallecas, Madrid

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    Rayo VallecanoRayo VallecanoPossession control
    vs
    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo AlavesPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Rayo Vallecano (50%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 5.55 (+37 %)

    Rayo Vallecano – Deportivo Alaves · La Liga

    1 · Rayo Vallecano 50%X 26%24% Deportivo Alaves · 2

    Analysis: Rayo Vallecano – Deportivo Alaves

    Oscar Nilsson · · How the predictions work

    Rayo Vallecano's current form is what grabs attention first: unbeaten in their last seven league matches, they’ve carved out a consistency that's hard to overlook. With the bookmakers giving them a 50% chance to win against Deportivo Alaves, the scales are tipped in their favor. The head-to-head record since 2022, although a small sample of four matches, points sharply towards Rayo with all four victories. While this doesn't seal the fate of the upcoming clash, it certainly adds weight to the notion of them as favorites.

    Deportivo Alaves, for their part, are no pushovers — having scored in 12 consecutive league matches, they are likely to cause some headaches for the Rayo defense. Both teams lean towards a possession-based style, suggesting that control of the midfield could determine the outcome. Expected goals (xG) figures of 1.48 for Rayo and 1.04 for Alaves hint at a match where chances should land in favor of the home side, yet not decisively so.

    The numbers suggest a tight contest likely to be decided by a single goal. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (12%), reinforce the idea of a low-scoring affair. With an over 2.5 goals probability at 46%, the model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 goals scenario. Yet, the betting market offers a tantalizing edge: over 3.5 goals is priced at 5.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, a 37% edge by the model's assessment. Given both teams' scoring capabilities, this bet could be a high-risk, high-reward punt worth considering.

    In the end, Rayo Vallecano are slight favorites to edge out a victory. A 1-0 home win seems the likeliest scenario. However, for those with a taste for risk and an eye on potential value, the over 3.5 goals market presents an intriguing proposition.

    Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
    Form WDDWW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #9xP/match #10Points #8
    Key players
    • Andrei RatiuRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
    • Unai LopezCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
    • Alvaro GarciaLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16
    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo Alaves
    Form LDWWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #16xP/match #2Points #14
    Key players
    • Toni MartinezFxG 0.47 · xT 0.03
    • Jonny OttoRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
    • Lucas BoyeFxG 0.51 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Rayo Vallecano – Deportivo Alaves

    Predicted score matrix

    Deportivo Alaves →
    Rayo Vallecano →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–18.0%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–112.8%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.8%
    2–19.2%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,48–1,04
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.53
    Over 2,546%
    @2.71EV+24%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rayo Vallecano to win50%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Rayo Vallecano to win50%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Alexandre Zurawski to score35%

    Combined probability

    7%

    Fair odds

    13.91

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Alexandre Zurawski to score35%
    • Antonio Blanco Conde to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    30.81

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.525% probability@5.55BetsafeEV+37%
    • Over 3.525% probability@5.55BetssonEV+37%
    • Over 3.525% probability@5.55NordicbetEV+37%
    Bookmaker1 · Rayo VallecanoX2 · Deportivo Alaves
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 8%
    2.16    		3.25
    EV+ 2%
    4.30
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    2.02    		3.154.15
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    2.02    		3.154.15
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    2.02    		3.154.15

    Odds updated 12 Aug, 19:36

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    48 %43 %

    2.12 → 2.02

    X+3 %
    33 %28 %

    3.05 → 3.15

    2+5 %
    26 %21 %

    3.95 → 4.15

    Over 2,50 %
    38 %33 %

    2.71 → 2.71

    Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 12/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Rayo Vallecano 4Draw 0Deportivo Alaves 0
    Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    • Deportivo Alaves have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rayo Vallecano
    Deportivo Alaves
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Rayo Vallecano (41–44)
    Deportivo Alaves (44–56)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rayo Vallecano
    Florian Lejeune: 191 passningar, xT 0.21LejeunePathe Ciss: 168 passningar, xT 0.44CissPep Chavarria: 130 passningar, xT 0.45ChavarriaUnai Lopez: 124 passningar, xT 0.22LopezAndrei Ratiu: 110 passningar, xT 0.21RatiuAugusto Batalla: 109 passningar, xT 0.2BatallaOscar Valentin: 98 passningar, xT 0.19ValentinGerard Gumbau: 94 passningar, xT 0.19GumbauNobel Mendy: 88 passningar, xT 0MendyIván Balliu: 88 passningar, xT 0.1BalliuAlfonso Espino: 78 passningar, xT 0.56Espino
    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 138 passningar, xT 0.25BlancoNahuel Tenaglia: 119 passningar, xT 0.23TenagliaAbderrahmane Rebbach: 113 passningar, xT 0.72RebbachÁngel Pérez: 111 passningar, xT 0.74PérezAntonio Sivera: 94 passningar, xT 0.51SiveraVíctor Parada: 93 passningar, xT 0.23ParadaJonny Otto: 88 passningar, xT 0.12OttoJon Guridi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02GuridiDenis Suarez: 67 passningar, xT 0.23SuarezPablo Ibanez: 57 passningar, xT -0.01IbanezVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 53 passningar, xT 0.35Koski
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rayo Vallecano
    Florian Lejeune: 191 passningar, xT 0.21LejeunePathe Ciss: 168 passningar, xT 0.44CissPep Chavarria: 130 passningar, xT 0.45ChavarriaUnai Lopez: 124 passningar, xT 0.22LopezAndrei Ratiu: 110 passningar, xT 0.21RatiuAugusto Batalla: 109 passningar, xT 0.2BatallaOscar Valentin: 98 passningar, xT 0.19ValentinGerard Gumbau: 94 passningar, xT 0.19GumbauNobel Mendy: 88 passningar, xT 0MendyIván Balliu: 88 passningar, xT 0.1BalliuAlfonso Espino: 78 passningar, xT 0.56Espino
    Deportivo Alaves
    Antonio Blanco: 138 passningar, xT 0.25BlancoNahuel Tenaglia: 119 passningar, xT 0.23TenagliaAbderrahmane Rebbach: 113 passningar, xT 0.72RebbachÁngel Pérez: 111 passningar, xT 0.74PérezAntonio Sivera: 94 passningar, xT 0.51SiveraVíctor Parada: 93 passningar, xT 0.23ParadaJonny Otto: 88 passningar, xT 0.12OttoJon Guridi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02GuridiDenis Suarez: 67 passningar, xT 0.23SuarezPablo Ibanez: 57 passningar, xT -0.01IbanezVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 53 passningar, xT 0.35Koski

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRayo VallecanoDeportivo Alaves
    Points5043
    xPoints53.958.3
    xG per match1.41.4
    xGA per match1.31.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.21
    Playing styleRayo VallecanoDeportivo Alaves
    Build-up efficiency0.330.33
    Field tilt0.520.48
    xT per match0.950.83
    xTA per match0.91
    Won balls, offensive half2328
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.31
    Entries into the box per match1111
    Entries into the box against1312
    Pass completion %0.780.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.72
    Passes per match357339
    Passes against per match303379
    Switches of play per match23.518.2
    Long balls per match3429
    Set piecesRayo VallecanoDeportivo Alaves
    xG from free kicks0.030.13
    Corners per match5.75.1
    Corners against per match5.25
    xG per corner0.050.06
    xGA per corner against0.050.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.42
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.47
    OtherRayo VallecanoDeportivo Alaves
    Throw-in control0.680.64
    The goalkeepersAugusto Batalla (Rayo Vallecano)Antonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)
    Saves9497
    Save %72%64%
    xG prevented44%45%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alaves according to our model?

    The model gives Rayo Vallecano a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rayo Vallecano 50%, draw 26%, Deportivo Alaves 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.