La LigaBalaídos, Vigo

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    Celta VigoCelta VigoBalanced & physical
    vs
    OsasunaOsasunaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Celta Vigo (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Osasuna @ 3.70 (+3 %)

    Celta Vigo – Osasuna · La Liga

    1 · Celta Vigo 44%X 28%28% Osasuna · 2

    Analysis: Celta Vigo – Osasuna

    Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work

    Five losses on the trot — that's the albatross around CA Osasuna's neck as they march into RC Celta de Vigo's territory. The statistics offer a stark view: RC Celta de Vigo carries a 44% win probability, a nod from the model that's hard to ignore. Yet, the recent head-to-head record, albeit a small sample, shows parity with two wins apiece since 2022. With a 1-1 draw touted as the most likely scoreline and both teams sitting on a knife-edge of expected goals, the tension is palpable.

    RC Celta de Vigo approaches this match with a steely balance and physicality, set to clash against the more defensively conservative and direct style of CA Osasuna. The home side's expected goals of 1.44 suggest they might control the narrative, yet their xGA of 1.4 signals vulnerability. CA Osasuna's xG of 1.3, while not far behind, doesn't overshadow the clear home advantage, but it does hint at their potential to disrupt, especially with a low defensive block.

    RC Celta de Vigo's current form is bolstered by a better points tally, but a closer inspection reveals CA Osasuna's superiority in expected points and defensive metrics. This discrepancy adds an intriguing layer to the matchup. While the stats lean towards a narrow home win, the high probability of both teams scoring and the model's under 2.5 goals stance suggest a tight, low-scoring affair.

    Despite the odds stacked against them, CA Osasuna presents an interesting betting angle with their 28% chance of victory priced at 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. A 3% edge, while modest, could entice those willing to back an end to their losing streak. Betting on Osasuna at such odds could be a calculated risk, but it's one where the numbers hint subtly at a possible upset.

    Celta VigoCelta Vigo
    Form WWLDW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #14xP/match #16Points #6
    Key players
    • Borja IglesiasFxG 0.52 · xT 0.02
    • Oscar MinguezaCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
    • Ferran JutglaRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.07
    OsasunaOsasuna
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #7xP/match #11Points #16
    Key players
    • Ante BudimirFxG 0.57 · xT 0.02
    • Raul GarciaFxG 0.47 · xT 0.09
    • Ruben GarciaRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Celta Vigo – Osasuna

    Predicted score matrix

    Osasuna →
    Celta Vigo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.7%
    0–18.4%
    0–24.5%
    0–31.6%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–011.7%
    1–112.9%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.7%
    2–19.0%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,44–1,04
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,555%
    @1.72
    Over 2,545%
    @2.22EV+0%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Celta Vigo or draw (1X)73%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Celta Vigo or draw (1X)73%
    • Under 2.5 goals55%
    • Borja Iglesias Quintás to score38%

    Combined probability

    16%

    Fair odds

    6.29

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals45%
    • Borja Iglesias Quintás to score38%
    • Lucas Torró Marset to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    30.09

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Osasuna28% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+3%
    • 2 · Osasuna28% probability@3.70BetssonEV+3%
    • 2 · Osasuna28% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+3%
    Bookmaker1 · Celta VigoX2 · Osasuna
    Betsafe2.023.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.70
    Betsson2.023.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.70
    Nordicbet2.023.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.70
    Pinnacle2.083.48
    EV+ 3%
    3.69

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 05:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Celta Vigo 2Draw 0Osasuna 2
    Goals: 7–7 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • CA Osasuna have lost 5 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Celta Vigo
    Osasuna
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Celta Vigo (53–48)
    Osasuna (44–50)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Celta Vigo
    Marcos Alonso: 261 passningar, xT 0.62AlonsoJavi Rodriguez: 239 passningar, xT 0.22RodriguezYoel Lago: 214 passningar, xT 0.06LagoFer López: 190 passningar, xT 0.44LópezSergio Carreira: 167 passningar, xT 0.25CarreiraIonut Radu: 132 passningar, xT -0.03RaduIlaix Moriba: 130 passningar, xT 0.07MoribaOscar Mingueza: 92 passningar, xT 0.17MinguezaIago Aspas: 73 passningar, xT 0.14AspasJavi Rueda: 71 passningar, xT 0.24RuedaAlvaro Nunez: 65 passningar, xT 0.03Nunez
    Osasuna
    Alejandro Catena: 190 passningar, xT 0.23CatenaEnzo Boyomo: 179 passningar, xT 0.2BoyomoValentin Rosier: 166 passningar, xT 0.68RosierJon Moncayola: 123 passningar, xT 0.51MoncayolaMoi Gomez: 110 passningar, xT 0.52GomezJavi Galan: 104 passningar, xT 0.73GalanSergio Herrera: 86 passningar, xT 0.09HerreraRuben Garcia: 85 passningar, xT 0.4GarciaAbel Bretones: 79 passningar, xT 0.79BretonesLucas Torro: 65 passningar, xT 0.06TorroAimar Oroz: 63 passningar, xT 0.17Oroz
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Celta Vigo
    Marcos Alonso: 261 passningar, xT 0.62AlonsoJavi Rodriguez: 239 passningar, xT 0.22RodriguezYoel Lago: 214 passningar, xT 0.06LagoFer López: 190 passningar, xT 0.44LópezSergio Carreira: 167 passningar, xT 0.25CarreiraIonut Radu: 132 passningar, xT -0.03RaduIlaix Moriba: 130 passningar, xT 0.07MoribaOscar Mingueza: 92 passningar, xT 0.17MinguezaIago Aspas: 73 passningar, xT 0.14AspasJavi Rueda: 71 passningar, xT 0.24RuedaAlvaro Nunez: 65 passningar, xT 0.03Nunez
    Osasuna
    Alejandro Catena: 190 passningar, xT 0.23CatenaEnzo Boyomo: 179 passningar, xT 0.2BoyomoValentin Rosier: 166 passningar, xT 0.68RosierJon Moncayola: 123 passningar, xT 0.51MoncayolaMoi Gomez: 110 passningar, xT 0.52GomezJavi Galan: 104 passningar, xT 0.73GalanSergio Herrera: 86 passningar, xT 0.09HerreraRuben Garcia: 85 passningar, xT 0.4GarciaAbel Bretones: 79 passningar, xT 0.79BretonesLucas Torro: 65 passningar, xT 0.06TorroAimar Oroz: 63 passningar, xT 0.17Oroz

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCelta VigoOsasuna
    Points5442
    xPoints4854
    xG per match1.21.3
    xGA per match1.41.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.250.2
    Playing styleCelta VigoOsasuna
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.450.43
    xT per match0.870.97
    xTA per match10.99
    Won balls, offensive half1926
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.27
    Entries into the box per match1113
    Entries into the box against1312
    Pass completion %0.830.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.7
    Passes per match439326
    Passes against per match429388
    Switches of play per match28.223.5
    Long balls per match3030
    Set piecesCelta VigoOsasuna
    xG from free kicks0.020.1
    Corners per match3.83.8
    Corners against per match4.64.8
    xG per corner0.040.06
    xGA per corner against0.040.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.64
    OtherCelta VigoOsasuna
    Throw-in control0.740.71
    The goalkeepersIonut Radu (Celta Vigo)Sergio Herrera (Osasuna)
    Saves113113
    Save %71%71%
    xG prevented47%39%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Celta Vigo vs Osasuna according to our model?

    The model gives Celta Vigo a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Vigo 44%, draw 28%, Osasuna 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.